Mariners position player review

With hot stove season quickly approaching, we should consider the performance of Seattle's bats and gloves in 2024.

Charles Rex Arbogast / AP Images

The Mariners’ offense enjoyed a September surge. But a harsh truth remains. The bats couldn’t consistently provide adequate run support for an outstanding pitching staff. With this in mind, we should consider what went right and what was suboptimal for Seattle’s position players in 2024.

You’ll note defense is also included in discussions. This makes sense to me since no matter how many offensive upgrades the Mariners make, pitching will likely continue to remain the organization’s strength. Therefore, run prevention with the glove matters, too.

First Base

The season began with Ty France as a returning starter. But by mid-season, the unproductive former All-Star was dealt to the Reds. Following the trade, rookie Tyler Locklear, Luke Raley, and deadline acquisition Justin Turner filled the void created by France’s departure.

The combined offensive production of Seattle first basemen, including France, yielded a 115 wRC+, which was eighth-best in MLB. Over the final two months of the season when Turner and Raley were the primary occupants at the position, the Mariners had a second-ranked 166 wRC+.

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantities how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.

Defensively, Statcast’s outs above average (OAA) suggests Mariner first basemen were significantly below average (zero OOA) with minus-12 OAA. But it’s important to recognize that France accounted for minus-8 OAA with Turner (1 OAA) and Raley (minus-3 OAA) providing more-palatable range at first base.

Another indication first base was clicking for the Mariners late in the season was value delivered. FanGraphs ranked Seattle second in wins above replacement (WAR) in August and September.

Unless Seattle brokers an extension deal with Turner before early November, the 39-year-old will become a free agent.

Second Base

Last offseason, the Mariners acquired switch-hitter Jorge Polanco to be the everyday second baseman. Unfortunately, Polanco struggled both offensively and defensively. He also dealt with availability challenges. All told, the 31-year-old and the players subbing for him - Dylan Moore, Ryan Bliss, Josh Rojas - combined for a 14th-ranked 95 wRC+.

Defensively, Seattle second basemen ranked 25th with minus-5 OAA. But a closer look reveals Polanco accounted for minus-10 OAA - worst among second basemen. Moore posted 1 OAA, while Bliss and Rojas each delivered 2 OAA in limited action.

Per Spotrac, the Mariners hold a $12 million club option for next season on Polanco.

Shortstop

After averaging 150 games over the previous three seasons, injuries limited long-time starter J.P. Crawford to just 106 contests in 2024. Compounding matters for the 29-year-old, he produced the lowest AVG (.202) and OBP (.304) of his eight-year career.

When Crawford was unavailable, rookie Leo Rivas and Moore were the team’s replacements. The trio combined for a 19th-ranked 94 wRC+.

In the field, Seattle shortstops netted a minus-3 OOA, tying the group for 24th in baseball. Crawford had 1 OAA, while Moore registered minus-1 OAA. Surprisingly, Rivas checked in with minus-3 OAA.

Crawford, Moore, and Rivas are under club control for 2025. Per Spotrac, two guaranteed years remain on Crawford’s contract before he’s eligible for free agency.

Third Base

Left-handed hitting Josh Rojas began the season in a platoon-ic arrangement with Luis Urías before emerging as the Mariners’ everyday third baseman. Rojas made 106 starts at the hot corner with Urías (29) and Moore (27) starting the remaining contests.

Seattle third basemen did strike out less often this year compared to 2023. A positive development since reducing strikeouts was a stated organizational goal last winter. But compared to the group led by Eugenio Suárez last year, Seattle experienced a noticeable decline in offensive production from third base.

A particularly frustrating element of Rojas’ season was a hot start followed by a tremendous drop-off in productivity. The six-year veteran delivered a .318 AVG/.408 OBP/.530 SLG slash-line in March-April, but then hit .208/.285/.301 for the rest of the year.

Still, Rojas was a premium defender. Statcast’s Fielding Run Value (FRV), rated the 30-year-old tops among AL third baseman. Suárez ranked 12th in MLB with Arizona this season.

Rojas and Urías are both arbitration-eligible.

Outfield

Seattle’s Opening Day outfield consisted of Julio Rodríguez, Mitch Haniger, and Dominic Canzone. Although Rodríguez posted an above-average 116 wRC+, his season was viewed as a disappointment. An understandable sentiment considering the 23-year-old was a top-5 finisher in AL MVP voting and a Silver Slugger winner in 2023.

By September, Haniger was filling an ever-shrinking bench role, while Canzone was playing for Class-AAA Tacoma. And as already noted, the team’s fourth outfielder (Raley) spent the majority of his playing time at first base rather than the outfield in August and September.

Raley’s move to first base wasn’t only spurred by the France trade. The acquisitions of veteran outfielders Víctor Robles and Randy Arozarena over the summer also contributed to the Ohioan spending more time at first base.

Seattle outfielders combined to produce a 113 wRC+ for the season tying the team for sixth-best with the Tigers. The following illustrates the six outfielders with at least 150 plate appearances.

The Mariners’ outfield defense ranked 17th with minus-2 OAA. But on an individual basis, there were positives. Rodríguez registered an outstanding 8 OAA, Robles had 1 OAA. That said, several others were in the red: Arozarena and Raley (minus-3 each) and Haniger (minus-5).

Spotrac lists Haniger with a $17.5 million player option for the 2025 campaign. The remaining names illustrated above currently project to remain under club control. Same with minor-leaguers Cade Marlowe and Samad Taylor, who briefly appeared with the club in 2024.

Catcher

Cal Raleigh demonstrated he was a top catcher in baseball. He was Seattle’s MVP, too. Raleigh led all receivers in the FanGraphs version of wins above replacement (fWAR) and home runs. Moreover, the North Carolina native paced the Mariners in both of these categories, plus plate appearances and RBI.

Defensively, Raleigh emerged as one of the best all-round backstops in MLB. He ranked second in defensive runs saved (DRS), while the 27-year-old’s FRV rated him as baseball’s third most-valuable defender behind the plate. Furthermore, no metric could adequately capture Raleigh’s ability to steward baseball’s best starting rotation.

The drop-off from Raleigh to the team’s backups was significant and somewhat troubling. Raleigh started 125 games and appeared behind-the-plate in 135 total contests. Opening Day backup Seby Zavala made 14 starts (18 games) before being designated for assignment in mid-June. For the remainder of the 2024 season, Mitch Garver made 23 starts as Seattle’s reserve catcher.

Garver was originally signed last offseason to serve as full-time designated hitter and wasn’t expected to catch. In fact, he didn’t appear in a game as a receiver until May 29.

In a relatively low amount of usage, Garver produced a below-average minus-2 FRV. Zavala was average (zero FRV) with an even smaller sample size of playing time.

Raleigh enters his first year of arbitration eligibility. Garver remains with the Mariners with a $12.5 million price tag in 2025, according to Spotrac.

Designated Hitter

This brings us to the position Garver was expected to fill on an everyday basis. All told, the 33-year-old accounted for approximately 51-percent of Seattle’s 659 designated hitter plate appearances. The reasons for the reduced role?

Suboptimal production (88 wRC+) and the fact Garver’s diminished bat was a better option for the backup catcher spot than Zavala’s (45 wRC+). As a result, Turner ended up being the Mariner with the most time at DH in August and September.

M’s DH Plate Appearances

Mitch Garver - 336
Mitch Haniger - 91
Cal Raleigh - 76
Justin Turner - 62
Julio Rodríguez - 42
Jorge Polanco - 22
Jason Vosler - 13
Randy Arozarena - 9
Ty France - 4
Dominic Canzone - 2
Víctor Robles - 1
Luke Raley - 1

The twelve players listed above combined for an average-ish 98 wRC+. But it’s important to acknowledge that Seattle's 2023 designated hitters produced a 94 wRC+ and ranked about the same as this year’s group in many of the categories listed below.

In my mind’s eye, Seattle experienced little-to-no improvement from the DH spot in 2024.

Utility Role

Dylan Moore was one of just eight players to appear at all four infield positions, left field, and center field this year. The others: Kiké Hernández, Garrett Hampson, Romy González, Ezequiel Durán, Mauricio Dubón, Vidal Bruján, and Gabriel Arias. The 32-year-old’s overall defense led to his selection as an AL Gold Glove finalist for Utility-Man.

From an offensive standpoint, Moore had a career-high 441 plate appearances with the Californian producing a 105 wRC+, 10 home runs, and a team-leading 32 stolen bases. It’s worth noting Moore’s bat was more effective when facing southpaws (.762 OPS) than it was against right-handers (.639 OPS).

As already alluded to, Moore is under contract through the end of the 2025 season.

Looking ahead

A case could be made to effect change at every infield position.

Perhaps the team opts to use the left-handed hitting Raley at first base more often in a platoon with the right-handed Locklear. Bringing Turner back would be an intriguing move. Still, Father Time could abruptly arrive for a player entering his age-40 season next year.

It’s possible Seattle exercises its 2025 option on Polanco. But considering the 31-year-old recently underwent knee surgery, averaged just 101 games played over the last three seasons, and has watched his strikeout rate climb nearly 11-percent since 2021, the Mariners parting ways with Polanco seems more likely.

Crawford has been a fixture at shortstop since the 2020 campaign. But the 29-year-old is at a crossroads in his career. It’s reasonable to wonder what version of the former 16th-overall pick the Mariners will see next year. The player setting career highs in 2023 or the hitter relegated from the lead-off spot to the bottom of the batting order this year.

Rojas’ third base defense was superb. But is his glove work good enough to overlook below-average offensive production?

Entering 2024, Rojas had a 93 wRC+ in 1,637 MLB plate appearances. This year, the University of Hawaii alum produced a 91 wRC+. It’s highly unlikely a hitter with a history like this, who’s entering his age-31 season, significantly improves next year.

Considering Rodríguez’s youth and immense talent, it’s reasonable to expect he can rebound from a disappointing year. Julio’s seemingly boundless potential combined with the return of Robles, Arozarena and possibly Raley leads me to view the outfield as being set for next season.

Obviously, the Mariners have their catcher. But what if Raleigh had been lost for an extended period this season? What would have been plan B? Garver’s injury history and advanced age makes relying on the New Mexico native a risky proposition.

If the Mariners opt to use Garver as their backup catcher again, the team must find a way to receive better production from its designated hitter spot than it has in recent years.

Saved rounds

The Mariners should be in the market for infield bats with second base and third base being the most prominent areas of need. It would be easier to live with a defense-first infielder, like Rojas, if the lineup boasted six or seven above-average hitters in it. But that wasn’t the case this year and probably won’t be in 2025, either.

Acquiring an established catcher to spot Raleigh more frequently should be high on Seattle’s to-do list. The notion of relying on Garver to fill this role is a risk-filled proposition a team wanting to reach the postseason shouldn’t accept. Besides, less time with the tools of ignorance strapped to his body would permit Raleigh to serve as designated hitter more often.

As things stand today, the contracts of two underperforming thirty-somethings - Garver and Haniger - will likely make it very challenging to improve the roster with proven MLB contributors with tread remaining on the tires. The duo projects to earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $30 million next year, which equates to approximately 20-percent of this year’s payroll.

There may be ways innovative dealmakers like Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander could potentially offload one or both of these contracts. Or, at the very least, mitigate the impact of these deals on building a competitive roster. Naturally, this assumes the team agrees with my assessment. Perhaps management prefers sticking with the veterans heading into 2025.

Finally

Throughout the offseason, we’ll discuss potential candidates to help the Mariners’ offense at the positions suggested as areas in need of improvement. But we’ll also look at any other opportunity that seems interesting.

After all, talking about baseball is always fun. Even in the dark of winter.

My Oh My…