There is one stat that is ignored in Savant and Reference that is critical, IMO -- inherited runners scoring. As I've watched games this year, it seems like the Mariner's are doing worse at this. Of course it does not affect their ERA or other ERA-based stats. I went on a deep dive, and created the following table from CBS Sports baseball stat based on AL teams.
Team IRS
BOS 23
HOU 36
LAA 39
TB 41
MIN 42
KC 48
CLE 53
SEA 61
OAK 65
TEX 65
CHW 67
DET 74
NYY 85
BAL 86
TOR 86
It takes a lot of digging to find this, unlike the other stats you quote. I had to search individuals, and team names are not sortable. I'd be happy to send you my underlying spreadsheet that I used, which is now out of date as these numbers are from 5/27, and there were inherited runners allowed to score.
I see the flaw in my logic that this stat puts BOTH starter runners and reliever runners. My eyes tell me this bullpen is allowing runs to score late in games, and that is why their record in close games is so bad this year as opposed to next year.
It's something to think about when praising the bullpen. There are more warts this year, and you pointed out a few; however, you missed the one that may be cancerous.
I’m comfortable with the metrics I used. Particularly xwOBA, which removes defense from the equation and focuses on what the pitcher (and hitter) have some level of control over…strikeouts, walks, and quality of contact. ERA and similar stats can be influenced by poor defense and/or the judgment of an official scorer. Not xwOBA.
As for the inherited runners scored stat, it too can be influenced by defenders. Also, it’s available at Baseball Reference. Here’s a link to the page.
It turns out Mariner relievers have allowed 19 inherited runners to score, which is the eighth-lowest total entering today. From a ratio perspective, they’ve allowed 19 of 63 inherited runners to score (30%). Ten clubs have a lower percentage, league-average is 33%.
As for late-inning issues, the Mariners’ bullpen has surrendered 46 runs in innings 7-9, which is lowest in MLB. Granted, the team’s number of reliever innings is relatively low, which affects the runs total. But in innings 7-9, M’s relievers have held opponents to the third-lowest AVG (.212), plus the lowest OBP (.277), wOBA (.267), and xwOBA (.271) and the second-lowest SLG (.319).
Thanks for pointing the way where I can find these stats on Baseball Ref. Not being as familiar with their website as you, I could not navigate to where you found these breakdowns. I'm curious how this year compares to the last couple of years. I'm guessing I'm a spoiled fan after the last two years of late-inning magic. Will dig into it. Thanks for the pointer.
One thing I find interesting -- you talk about how many runs in innings 7-9, and that the total number of innings is low. What is their average runs per in innings 7-9 and where does that rank?
I'm old school, and my eyes tell me something different that the algorithms show. Doesn't make me right, just skeptical.
Here’s the link. You can do the math if you want to dig into it. That said, I believe you may be overthinking this. The bullpen isn’t as robust as last year. But it’s been very effective to date.
There is one stat that is ignored in Savant and Reference that is critical, IMO -- inherited runners scoring. As I've watched games this year, it seems like the Mariner's are doing worse at this. Of course it does not affect their ERA or other ERA-based stats. I went on a deep dive, and created the following table from CBS Sports baseball stat based on AL teams.
Team IRS
BOS 23
HOU 36
LAA 39
TB 41
MIN 42
KC 48
CLE 53
SEA 61
OAK 65
TEX 65
CHW 67
DET 74
NYY 85
BAL 86
TOR 86
It takes a lot of digging to find this, unlike the other stats you quote. I had to search individuals, and team names are not sortable. I'd be happy to send you my underlying spreadsheet that I used, which is now out of date as these numbers are from 5/27, and there were inherited runners allowed to score.
I see the flaw in my logic that this stat puts BOTH starter runners and reliever runners. My eyes tell me this bullpen is allowing runs to score late in games, and that is why their record in close games is so bad this year as opposed to next year.
It's something to think about when praising the bullpen. There are more warts this year, and you pointed out a few; however, you missed the one that may be cancerous.
Maui Rob
Hey Rob,
Thanks for subscribing and for the feedback!
I’m comfortable with the metrics I used. Particularly xwOBA, which removes defense from the equation and focuses on what the pitcher (and hitter) have some level of control over…strikeouts, walks, and quality of contact. ERA and similar stats can be influenced by poor defense and/or the judgment of an official scorer. Not xwOBA.
As for the inherited runners scored stat, it too can be influenced by defenders. Also, it’s available at Baseball Reference. Here’s a link to the page.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023-reliever-pitching.shtml
It turns out Mariner relievers have allowed 19 inherited runners to score, which is the eighth-lowest total entering today. From a ratio perspective, they’ve allowed 19 of 63 inherited runners to score (30%). Ten clubs have a lower percentage, league-average is 33%.
As for late-inning issues, the Mariners’ bullpen has surrendered 46 runs in innings 7-9, which is lowest in MLB. Granted, the team’s number of reliever innings is relatively low, which affects the runs total. But in innings 7-9, M’s relievers have held opponents to the third-lowest AVG (.212), plus the lowest OBP (.277), wOBA (.267), and xwOBA (.271) and the second-lowest SLG (.319).
All the best!
Luke
Luke --
Thanks for pointing the way where I can find these stats on Baseball Ref. Not being as familiar with their website as you, I could not navigate to where you found these breakdowns. I'm curious how this year compares to the last couple of years. I'm guessing I'm a spoiled fan after the last two years of late-inning magic. Will dig into it. Thanks for the pointer.
One thing I find interesting -- you talk about how many runs in innings 7-9, and that the total number of innings is low. What is their average runs per in innings 7-9 and where does that rank?
I'm old school, and my eyes tell me something different that the algorithms show. Doesn't make me right, just skeptical.
Rob
Hey Rob,
Here’s the link. You can do the math if you want to dig into it. That said, I believe you may be overthinking this. The bullpen isn’t as robust as last year. But it’s been very effective to date.
Luke
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=43,50,51,52&splitArrPitch=&position=P&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=1&startDate=2023-03-01&endDate=2023-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=8,-1