Let's talk about Spring Training stats
Numbers don't lie. But stats produced during Cactus League and Grapefruit League action are Fool's Gold.
On Friday, the Mariners lost the first game of Spring Training, scoring just two runs on two hits. For some fans on social media, this Day One showing was a harbinger of what awaits in the regular season: suboptimal run production; wasting one of baseball’s best starting rotations; another year without a postseason appearance.
Maybe it’s just me. But this feels like an overreaction, doesn’t it?
Look, I have no clue on how the upcoming season will unfold. But I’m certain that the numbers produced in Spring Training will reveal little-to-nothing about what awaits any player or team this year.
Warm weather, hot bats
To see what I mean, let’s consider what the Mariners did last spring. The following compares the OPS of Seattle’s Opening Day lineup at three different points: Spring Training; one month into the season; the entire 2024 campaign.
Based on their production in Arizona last spring, Jorge Polanco, Mitch Haniger, and Mitch Garver appeared to be brilliant offseason additions by Seattle’s front office. Unfortunately, the regular season didn’t play out that way for the trio.
Polanco posted a .419 AVG/.490 OBP/.744 SLG with five doubles and three home runs during his first Mariners Spring Training. Not only that, his 1.234 OPS was fifth-best among Arizona-based hitters with at least 30 plate appearances. But that was it for the native of the Dominican Republic. He would then hit .170/.314/.290 in March and April before posting a career-low .651 OPS for the season.
The returning fan-favorite, Haniger, led Seattle with five Spring Training home runs, while his .846 SLG was fourth-best in the Cactus League. That said, the Cal Poly product would then record his worst AVG, SLG, and strikeout rate in eight big-league seasons. By September, Haniger’s playing time was dramatically reduced.
Signed to be the first full-time designated hitter since Nelson Cruz left the Emerald City, Garver produced an impressive .262 AVG/.354 OBP/.476 SLG in Arizona. But by summer, the New Mexico native’s poor production prompted the team to make him the backup catcher and occasional DH against left-handed pitching.
It wasn’t just the new guys who struggled after a torrid Spring Training. Two core contributors - J.P. Crawford and Julio Rodríguez - each endured disappointing 2024 campaigns.
After a career-year in 2023, Crawford’s .341 AVG/.408 OBP/.477 SLG in Cactus League action hinted that another big season may be on the way. However, the pride of Lakewood High School finished 2024 with his worst AVG and OBP as a major-leaguer.
Similarly, Rodríguez hit .394/.512/.667 last spring and then experienced career lows in AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS+. Granted, the two-time Silver Slugger did have an above-average year from a statistical standpoint. But his preseason numbers foreshadowed greatness that was never realized.
Conversely, someone with an underwhelming Spring Training OPS, Josh Rojas, was Seattle’s best hitter during the first month of the regular season. On April 30, the left-handed hitter boasted a .318 AVG/.408 OBP/.530 SLG. Rojas would then hit .208/.285/.301 over the next five months.
And then there’s Luke Raley - the Mariner with the worst Spring Training OPS.
Raley wasn’t in Seattle’s Opening Day lineup after delivering a .159 AVG/.245 OBP/.227 SLG in 49 Spring Training plate appearances. In fact, his .472 OPS ranked 170th among 176 Cactus League hitters with 30-plus plate appearances.
Despite a horrible introduction to his new team and its fan base, Raley ended up being one of the few pleasant surprises in Seattle’s underachieving lineup. The Ohio native’s .783 OPS led all Mariners who had 400-plus plate appearances with the club. Furthermore, Raley’s second-half OPS was tenth-best among left-handed hitters.
Best Spring Training offense?
Yep, you guessed it. As a result of so many Mariners raking last February and March, Seattle had the highest Spring Training OPS in MLB last year. Who saw that coming?
Highest Spring Training OPS (2024)
SEA (.825)
LAD (.824)
SFG (.817)
CIN (.809)
TOR (.805)
BAL (.799)
COL (.788)
DET (.777)
OAK (.777)
WSH (.765)
Only the Rockies (66) hit more doubles than the Mariners did (64), while Seattle’s 46 home runs ranked fourth.
Bad, yet good
So far, we’ve primarily discussed good Spring Training performances that didn’t lead to success in the regular season. But every year, hitters like Raley scuffle in the preseason before delivering outstanding results once the games count. Perhaps the best recent example of this phenomenon in Seattle involves the team’s long-time shortstop.
In 2023, Crawford had five hits - all singles - in 27 Spring Training at bats. This equated to a .185 AVG/.290 OBP/.185 SLG. Yet, the Gold Glover went on to hit a career-high 19 home runs, lead the AL in walks, and tie Rodríguez for Seattle’s best OPS.
And this isn’t just a Mariners thing.
Aaron Judge had a paltry .629 OPS with zero home runs in 27 Grapefruit League plate appearances last year. From there, Judge would go on to produce an MLB-leading 1.159 OPS and earn his second AL MVP.
Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber had five hits and a .158 SLG in 38 at bats last spring. The two-time All-Star then recorded a .485 SLG once the games mattered. Schwarber’s teammate - Bryce Harper - had a .179 AVG/.294 OBP/.214 SLG in Spring Training before earning his fourth Silver Slugger and finishing sixth in NL MVP voting.
Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor, who finished four spots ahead of Harper in MVP balloting, hit .145 with a .236 SLG in 61 plate appearances before Opening Day.
Blasts from the past
Just for fun, I used Baseball Savant to find Mariners Spring Training studs dating back to 2008. I suspect you’ll see a few names that you hadn’t thought about lately.
Hits
32 - Michael Morse (2008)
30 - Mitch Haniger (2017)
26 - Dustin Ackley (2014)
25 - Matt Tuiasosopo (2009)
25 - Brad Miller (2014)
25 - Franklin Gutierrez (2009)
24 - Justin Smoak (2013)
24 - Yuniesky Betancourt (2009)
23 - Chris Shelton (2009)
23 - Guillermo Heredia (2017)
23 - Wladimir Balentien (2009)
23 - Ronny Cedeño (2009)
Home runs
9 - Michael Morse (2013)
8 - Mike Wilson (2009)
7 - Mike Zunino (2015)
7 - Robinson Canó (2016)
7 - Kendrys Morales (2013)
7 - Russell Branyan (2009)
7 - Daniel Vogelbach (2018)
AVG
.541 - Seth Smith (2016)
.514 - Endy Chávez (2009)
.500 - Mike Sweeney (2010)
.492 - Michael Morse (2008)
.471 - Shawn O'Malley (2016)
.460 - Chris Shelton (2009)
.455 - Munenori Kawasaki (2012)
.444 - Julio Rodríguez (2023)
.433 - Cole Gillespie (2014)
.424 - Matt Tuiasosopo (2009)
.419 - Jorge Polanco (2024)
SLG
.929 - Domingo Santana (2019)
.926 - Daniel Vogelbach (2018)
.893 - Michael Morse (2013)
.857 - Kyle Lewis (2019)
.852 - Mike Zunino (2015)
.850 - Mike Sweeney (2010)
.846 - Mitch Haniger (2024)
.838 - Seth Smith (2016)
.836 - Brad Miller (2014)
.825 - Robinson Canó (2016)
As you can see, there were a lot of outstanding performances during Spring Training that didn’t carry over into the regular season. This was unfortunate for both the players and the Mariners. But that’s baseball.
One last thing
To be clear, I’m not trying to tell fans how to fan. If they want to be jubilant or get discouraged by Spring Training stats, that’s their prerogative.
Personally, this nerd prefers to ignore the numbers, enjoy the sights and sounds of the game I love, and count the days until the Mariners’ season opener.
My Oh My…