Jorge Soler and the Mariners?

Jorge Soler's power is prodigious. But there are issues teams will consider before committing multiple years to the slugger.

Another day, another rumor.

Yesterday, Francys Romero of MLB stated on Twitter the Mariners are “the most active team” courting free agent outfielder/designated hitter Jorge Soler. In the same post, the Yankees and Soler’s 2023 club, the Marlins, were also mentioned as suitors.

The level of interest the Mariners may actually have in Soler is unclear. I tend to believe that reports of teams having interest in a player are often sourced by parties with an agenda. But just in case Seattle’s radar is locked on the 10-year veteran, let’s consider what his presence might mean to the Mariners in 2024 and perhaps beyond.

Selling points: Soler was an impact bat in 2023 - something the Mariners are seeking this offseason. Only 10 players clobbered more home runs than the 31-year-old. Among qualified hitters, he was top-20 in SLG, OPS, wOBA, and barrel rate. Moreover, Soler ranked 23rd in OPS+ and walk percentage.

If Soler played for Seattle this year, the right-handed hitter would’ve led Mariners with 400-plus plate appearances in home runs, SLG, OPS, wOBA, and barrel rate. He would’ve finished second behind Julio Rodríguez (52%) in hard-hit rate and J.P. Crawford (.380) in OBP.

We all know T-Mobile Park suppresses offense. But it’s likely Soler produces in Seattle despite this built-in home field disadvantage.

Consider this: Baseball Savant rated Soler’s most recent home field (loanDepot park) as the 28th-best home run venue for right-handed hitters. The ballpark at the corner of Edgar & Dave ranked 19th.

We encounter similar results with slugging percentage. Right-handed batters produced a .386 SLG at loanDepot park over the last three seasons. Yet, Soler managed a .480 home SLG in two years as a Marlin. Players have slugged .391 at T-Mobile Park since 2021.

The average distance of Soler’s 36 home runs this year was 411 feet. Only six hitters with 25-plus homers boasted a longer distance. They were Shohei Ohtani (422), Ronald Acuña Jr. (420), Juan Soto (415), Austin Riley (414), Jack Suwinski (413), and Christopher Morel (412).

For visual consumers of information, I present you with video proof of Soler’s power. It’s a 468-foot home run hit off Matt Brash of the Mariners at loanDepot park in 2022, which set a personal-best for distance since the beginning of the Statcast era in 2015.

Video: Soler’s bomb off Matt Brash

For some reason, the voices of the ROOT Sports booth are missing from this clip. In this particular case, that’s okay. The absence of announcers permits us to appreciate the fan reaction to Soler’s massive shot. It’s worth noting he crushed a homer with the same distance this year in Arizona.

Soler hasn’t been the stereotypical slow-footed slugger. His 26.6 ft/sec sprint speed was just under the MLB average (27ft/sec). Not a speedster, but not a basepath clogger either.

As a two-time World Series champion, Soler possesses a postseason pedigree any team would like to have in its clubhouse. Not only that, the native of La Habana, Cuba has excelled on the biggest stage.

In 28 games, Soler has six home runs with a .274 AVG/.391 OBP/.630 SLG in 28 playoff games. He was also MVP of the 2021 Fall Classic as a member of the Braves.

Potential concerns: Considering his productivity this year, Soler’s 24.3% strikeout rate was palatable. But it’s important to note he’s been a high-strikeout hitter throughout his 10 big-league seasons. This trend likely continues and could worsen with age.

Soler was significantly more productive against southpaws than right-handers this year. When confronting right-handed pitchers, Soler’s power was still very good. That said, his OBP dropped to just a little better than league-average.

Still, we should keep things in perspective when considering Soler’s extreme splits. His 22 home runs against right-handers would’ve ranked fourth among Mariners hitters against all pitchers. Rodríguez (.485) was the only Seattle bat with a better SLG against all-comers than what the Cuban produced (.462) versus righties. Furthermore, only Cal Raleigh (5.3%) had a higher home run rate than Soler (4.9%).

The numbers strongly suggest fielding isn’t a strength for Soler. During 32 games in right field this year, he accrued -5 outs above average (OAA), which indicates the All-Star was a below-average defender.

Defensive metrics are best consumed in large samples. That said, Soler’s -24 OAA since 2016 suggests his performance with Miami in 2023 is a reliable indicator of what to expect from him in the future.

Availability has been a challenge for Soler throughout his career. Since the beginning of 2015, he’s played in approximately 62-percent of his teams’ games. Furthermore, the 6-foot-4 slugger has been on the IL at least once every year with the exception of 2019.

Soler’s injury woes have likely contributed to being an inconsistent run producer from year-to-year. This volatility becomes evident once we review his annual OPS+.

Jorge Soler’s OPS+

2015 - 99
2016 - 103
2017 - 35
2018 - 123
2019 - 137
2020 - 106
2021 - 99
2022 - 95
2023 - 128

MLB average OPS+ always = 100

Thoughts: It’s reasonable to believe T-Mobile Park can’t contain Soler’s home run power. His bat in the middle of Seattle’s lineup on a daily basis would have a positive impact on the club’s run production effort next year. Still, I have reservations.

Soler’s injury history is concerning. Particularly, when we consider he’s entering his age-32 season and has appeared in 100-plus games just four times and never in consecutive years. Even if you set aside the truncated 2020 campaign, this is an alarming data point - at least it is to me.

Assuming the Mariners did sign Soler, I expect him to primarily serve as the team’s designated hitter. Perhaps keeping the oft-injured veteran off the field as often as practical helps mitigate health-related issues, which have wreaked havoc on his availability and performance through the years.

Still, signing a thirty-something with an extensive injury history to a multi-year deal could be problematic. Particularly, for a club attempting to improve its offense with reportedly limited payroll flexibility.

My Oh My…