I was wrong about the Rangers, but I'm okay with it

Being wrong for the right reasons doesn’t change the fact you were wrong. But it does make it somewhat easier to swallow your pride.

Tony Gutierrez / AP Images

There’s no way to sugar coat it - I was wrong about the Texas Rangers. It was a complete whiff on my part.

And what did I get wrong?

Before the regular season began, I didn’t pick the Rangers to reach the playoffs this year. And I certainly didn’t expect to see Texas facing the Astros in the ALCS.

The Astros!

“Ultimately, the Rangers should be far more interesting than last year. But with the current roster, elevating to serious contender status may be just out of reach in 2023.” - Me

Still, I’m okay with being wrong.

And why do I feel this way?

It’s simple. The process used during my preseason assessment of the Rangers was sound. After all, a major doubt expressed in my preview was the durability and effectiveness of the starting rotation. This proved to be a well-founded concern.

The Rangers’ biggest offseason acquisition - Jacob deGrom - made just six starts before being lost to Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately for Texas, deGrom wasn’t the only key starter landing on the IL. Jon Gray and Nathan Eovaldi also missed time due to injuries. Furthermore, an arm issue sidelined high-profile deadline acquisition Max Scherzer in mid-September.

Compounding matters for the Rangers’ staff, Martín Pérez and Andrew Heaney struggled with ineffectiveness. So much so, both southpaws spent time in the bullpen during the regular season.

Speaking of relief pitching. It’s ironic my preseason preview didn’t shine a light on the Rangers’ weakest link - their bullpen. For most of the 2023 campaign, no lead seemed safe with Texas relievers blowing a franchise-record 33 saves.

Yet in the end, Texas manager Bruce Bochy and his team prevailed despite a banged-up, inconsistent rotation being supported by a volatile bullpen. And how did the Rangers overcome such a major disadvantage?

Rely on a prolific offense.

Full disclosure: Another preseason swing-and-miss by me was voicing doubt about the supporting cast Rangers management had put around an established core of Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Adolis García, and Nathaniel Lowe.

“The Rangers’ lineup has a solid core with Seager, Semien, Lowe, and García. But there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the remaining lineup contributors.” - Me, again

The foursome did anchor the lineup. But the offense became elite (third-most runs scored in MLB) thanks in part to a pair of players enjoying breakout years - catcher Jonah Heim and third baseman Josh Jung.

Heim, a player traded three times, hit 28 doubles and 18 home runs with a .258 AVG/.317 OBP/.438 SLG slash-line. Furthermore, the Buffalo, New York native represented Texas in the All-Star game.

A highly-touted prospect, Jung also earned an All-Star selection after missing most of 2022 with a torn shoulder labrum. This year, the eighth overall draft pick of the 2019 draft thrived with 25 doubles, 23 home runs, and a .266/.315/.467 slash. Now, he’s in the running for AL Rookie of the Year honors.

It’s important to recognize several other hitters playing a role in propelling the Texas offense. Among them: 24-year-old Ezequiel Duran(.276/.324/.443) and veteran Robbie Grossman in the second-half of the season (.266/.411/.452). Another well-publicized prospect - Evan Carter - provided a late-season boost following a September call-up.

Having said all that, the big difference-maker for the 2023 Rangers can be traced back to a glaring truth. Texas had a deeper and better roster than many rival clubs, including the Mariners.

In the most recent edition of the newsletter, I suggested the Rangers had built a slightly wider foundation of valuable players than the Mariners did. Specifically: Texas boasted 12 players with a bWAR of two-or-greater - Seattle had 10.

2+ WAR Rangers
Marcus Semien (7.4)
Corey Seager (6.9)
Adolis García (4.2)
Nathan Eovaldi (3.1)
Dane Dunning (3.0)
Jonah Heim (2.9)
Leody Taveras (2.7)
Nathaniel Lowe (2.6)
Josh Jung (2.4)
Mitch Garver (2.1)
Jon Gray (2.1)
Jordan Montgomery (2.1­)

---

2+ WAR Mariners
Julio Rodríguez (5.3)
J.P. Crawford (5.0)
George Kirby (3.9)
Luis Castillo (3.4)
Cal Raleigh (3.2)
Logan Gilbert (3.1)
José Caballero (2.4)
Eugenio Suárez (2.2)
Teoscar Hernández (2.1)
Jarred Kelenic (2.0)

---

Two players may not seem like a big difference. But consider this; the margin between the Rangers and Mariners in the AL West and wild card races wasn’t big either.

At this point, some of you may remain perplexed by someone's willingness to embrace being wrong and then write about it. Or how the predictable social media grief bound to come my way might affect me. 

As I said at the beginning, the process driving my analysis was solid. That said; I’m a continuous process improvement proponent. So, I’ll undoubtedly reflect on what worked and what didn’t when I sized-up the Rangers and other clubs in March. From there, necessary adjustments will be made.

As for social media, who cares?

If trolling me or others about sports on a platform like Twitter/X brings meaning to their life, so be it. In a roundabout way, I guess I’m providing a public service to the dull-minded in search of attention and/or validation.

There’s another reason for being with fine whiffing on the Rangers. Uncertainty is a fact of life once a baseball season begins. It’s what makes sports so great - unscripted, high drama.

Players will suffer injuries or underperform reasonable expectations - count on it. Conversely, there will be breakout campaigns by youngsters, unheralded names, and familiar faces. Heck, a few players will even be suspended or even arrested, unfortunately.

That’s baseball!

In the Rangers’ case, Bochy and his crew overcame predictable adversity and navigated around a cluster of unexpected stumbling blocks to reach the postseason. The ALCS, no less.

Against the Astros!

For this reason, I say congratulations to the Texas Rangers franchise and its fan base. After enduring six consecutive losing seasons, they deserve this moment.

Regardless of what happens in the ALCS, this year has to be viewed as an absolute success for the front office that built the Rangers’ roster and the owner willing to finance the effort.

My Oh My…