Hey, what about Trey Mancini?

After making a bone-headed omission yesterday, I had to right a wrong.

I made a mistake yesterday.

Not a massive gaffe, but a disappointing one nonetheless.

And what did I do?

Forget to talk about Trey Mancini.

More specifically, I neglected to include Mancini when discussing free agent corner outfielders with Seattle Mariners fans yesterday. On a personal level, my omission is frustrating since the Notre Dame product is a Stage 3 colon cancer survivor. My wife is currently battling Stage 3 colon cancer.

So, yeah. Trey Mancini is a big deal in our house.

Don’t get me wrong; I’m not writing this out of sympathy for Mancini. He should’ve been included regardless of health history. That said, overlooking a player who’s endured what Mrs. Arkins is currently dealing with is embarrassing for me.

To undo this blunder, let’s now discuss Mancini in the same manner we did Wil Myers, Jurickson Profar, Robbie Grossman, and Andrew McCutchen yesterday. Could Mancini fulfill a stated desire of Mariners management to add another right-handed corner outfielder?

As with our four original players, I’m presenting platoon splits. In Mancini’s case, you’ll see combined numbers from his last two seasons with the Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros.

Selling points: Mancini has been successful at making loud contact. This year, he produced a 40.4% hard-hit rate. His career rate is very similar (41.9%).

A “hard-hit ball” has an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. The “hard-hit rate” of a player or team represents the percentage of batted balls with a 95+mph exit velocity.  In 2022, the average hard-hit rate was 38.4%. – Statcast

If Mancini were a member of the 2022 Mariners, his hard-hit rate would’ve placed third on the team, behind only Julio Rodríguez (50.7%) and Eugenio Suárez (43.5%). It’s a fact that should matter to Seattle fans considering this type of contact generally leads to extremely better results than all other batted balls.

Hard-hit balls - .488 AVG / .954 SLG
Everything else - .219 AVG / .254 SLG

As with several of yesterday’s candidates, Mancini could provide his next team with positional versatility. The Floridian has 237 career starts at first base, 214 in left field, and 91 in right field.

Availability has been a strength of Mancini’s. Other than the truncated 2020 campaign lost to his cancer battle, he’s averaged 149 games/season since the beginning of 2017.

Potential Concerns: It’s a small sample size, but Mancini’s offense experienced a significant drop-off once the Orioles traded him to the Astros on August 1.

Orioles: .260 AVG / .334 OBP / .421 SLG / 109 wRC+
Astros: .176 AVG / .258 OBP / .364 SLG / 77 wRC+

Not only did Mancini’s production numbers take a major hit with Houston, so did his ability to create hard contact.

Orioles: 42.8% hard-hit rate
Astros: 34.7% hard-hit rate

Advanced metrics suggest Mancini has been a below-average outfield defender recently. Having said that, the same measurement systems rate the 30-year-old as a better-than-average glove at first base.

Mancini has never been a speedster. But his sprint speed cratered to 25.6 ft/sec this year (MLB average is 27 ft/sec). To put things into perspective, he ranked 237th of 266 players with 100-plus competitive runs. The only Mariners regulars slower than the six-year veteran were Jesse Winker (25.4) and Ty France (24.7).

Thoughts: Personally, I’m discounting Mancini’s time with the Astros. After all, we’re only talking about two months. That said, it’s hard to look past his diminishing quickness and suboptimal outfield defensive numbers now that he’s a thirty-something.

This doesn’t mean Mancini couldn’t help the Mariners in 2023. But partnering him with unproven left-handed hitting outfielders Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, and Cade Marlowe might not be the best use of his skills.

Perhaps the Mariners could look at using Mancini in a first base/left field/designated hitter rotation rather than a left field platoon with the kids. That way, his presence would give the team protection at first base in the event France were to suffer an injury, as he did in 2022.

Then again, it’s possible Mancini just doesn’t make sense for the Mariners. If I had to rank him against the players we discussed yesterday, he’d likely place behind Myers, Pollock, and maybe Profar.

Likewise, coming to the Emerald City might not be in the best interest of Mancini’s career or family. The Orioles’ eighth round pick in 2013 would likely prefer signing with a team where playing time and position won’t be unsettled issues.

Regardless of where Trey Mancini lands this offseason, Mrs. Arkins and myself will be cheering hard for him now and in the future. If he happened to be wearing a Seattle Mariners uniform, all the better.

My Oh My…

Thanks for reading Mariners Consigliere! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.