Hello Donovan Solano!

Can the veteran maintain his torrid production?

Jeff Dean / AP Images

Dating back to May 24, Donovan Solano has been the most productive hitter on the Mariners.

Okay, before anyone blows a gasket, I don’t believe that Solano has been a better hitter than Cal Raleigh over the past month. But he does have a better AVG, OBP, and wRC+ than Raleigh does during this timeframe. That said, there’s an important caveat to consider - plate appearances.

Since May 24, Raleigh has 122 plate appearances compared to Solano’s 48 - over twice as many. Therefore, a more realistic and common sense assessment would be that the Florida State alum is more productive than Solano and every other Mariner over the last month and the entire 2025 campaign.

Still, Solano being compared to Raleigh in a positive light is an interesting development. He’s a player a portion of Mariners Twitter wanted the team to designate for assignment less than a month ago.

A rough start

Solano’s overall production from Opening Day until the last week of May was suboptimal and that’s being kind. The right-handed hitter posted a .138 AVG, .162 OBP, .169 SLG with a minus-8 wRC+. That’s not a typo. He had a minus-8 wRC+ through May 23.

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantifies how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the MLB average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.

Basically, Solano’s offensive productivity was 108-percent worse than the average hitter through the first 50 games of the Mariners season. Among 370 hitters with at least 50 plate appearances, the 37-year-old was bottom-10 in OBP, SLG, and wRC+. There were less-effective hitters than Solano, but not many.

Dramatic turnaround

Fortunately for Solano and the Mariners, he regained his mojo at the plate. The 12-year-veteran’s rebound has been something to behold.

As already noted, Solano leads the Mariners in AVG, OBP, and wRC+ over the last month. He’s second only to Raleigh in SLG and RBI. Furthermore, just two teammates have more home runs than the Colombian does this month - Raleigh (10) and Dominic Canzone (4).

As an aside, does anyone else find it alarming that just two Mariners have more home runs than Donovan Solano with only six games remaining in the month?

Batted ball success

Creating more loud contact has led to Solano’s .682 slugging percentage over the last month. But the player nicknamed “Donnie Barrels” hasn’t been barreling more balls lately. Solano’s 5.6-percent barrel rate is essentially the same as it was before his bat ignited (5.3-percent). However, he’s been producing “hard-hit” balls more frequently.

Solano’s Hard-Hit Rate

Mar 27 - May 23 (31.6%)
May 24 - June 24 (52.8%)

MLB average hard-hit rate = 41%

Even when Solano was scuffling over the first two months of the season, his hard-hit balls yielded a .438 AVG and .563 SLG. Unfortunately for both player and team, his 31.6-percent hard-hit rate was well under the MLB average. But since May 24, the one-time Silver Slugger is batting .737 with a 1.211 SLG on these well-struck balls.

Platoon no more?

Until recently, Solano was used in a platoon arrangement at first base with the lefty bat of Rowdy Tellez. But guess which right-handed Mariner has been most productive against righties? Yep, Donnie Barrels. Still, I urge caution with this fun fact.

Sixteen of Solano’s 45 plate appearances against a right-hander this year have occurred in the last week, smack dab in the middle of his hot streak. That’s one-third of his season tally, folks.

Slick defender?

We’ve seen during recent games that Solano looks very comfortable at first base. It turns out just six of 39 other qualified first baseman have accrued more OAA than he has.

Outs Above Average (OAA) is a range-based metric that quantifies how many outs a defender has saved compared to the average player. League-average is always ZERO. Source: Baseball Savant

Just to be clear, advanced defensive metrics are best consumed in large batches. To this point, Solano has just logged 26 starts and 248.1 innings at first base this season. Thirty players, including Tellez (393 frames), have more time at the position than Solano. Still, OAA suggests Solano has more range than Tellez, whose minus-5 OAA ranks 38th of 39 defenders.

BUYER BEWARE: Small samples everywhere!

Everything positive we’ve discussed regarding Solano is a small sample. As already noted, he has 48 plate appearances since May 24. Furthermore, the veteran has started just 12 of Seattle’s 29 games during this span with half of those starts occurring since Tellez’s final appearance as a Mariner on June 17.

Consider this. Nine Mariners have more plate appearances than Solano since May 24. This includes Tellez and Canzone, who wasn’t recalled from Class-AAA Tacoma until June 9.

Mariner Plate Appearances (May 24 - June 24)

J.P. Crawford (94)
Julio Rodríguez (93)
Randy Arozarena (92)
Cal Raleigh (90)
Jorge Polanco (81)
Cole Young (63)
Ben Williamson (60)
Rowdy Tellez (46)
Dominic Canzone (43)
Donovan Solano (36)
Mitch Garver (30)
Miles Mastrobuoni (28)
Dylan Moore (26)
Leody Taveras (18)
Luke Raley (15)

And since we’re wading in the sea of small samples, I’ll mention T-Mobile Park.

Solano has just 12 plate appearances at T-Mobile Park during his hot streak. We can’t realistically glean anything from that. But I will point out that he’s had just two hits (both singles) with one walk and five strikeouts at home since Memorial Day. Away from Seattle, he hit .545 with just three strikeouts in 36 plate appearances.

Looking forward

For the season, Solano has a 96 wRC+, which is impressive considering he was at minus-8 just a month ago. But how much higher can that number go?

Past production can’t predict future outcomes. But reviewing what Solano has done over the last three years with the Reds, Twins, and Padres may shed some light on what to expect from the 37-year-old.

Between 2022 and 2024, Solano had a 111 wRC+. But it’s worth noting that his wRC+ over 12 big-league seasons is 99. If I was forced to make a wager, I would put my money on him finishing this year with a wRC+ between 100 and 110.

Playing time is another important consideration when reflecting on Solano’s future outlook. A review of his Baseball Reference page reveals he’s amassed more than 400 MLB plate appearances in a season just once since debuting in 2012. Is it reasonable to expect a position player in his late-thirties to meet or exceed his previous personal best for time in the field?

Finally

It’s been wonderful watching Solano break out of his funk. His uptick in productivity came at a great time for the team. Particularly as it opted to part ways with Tellez. Still, his age and previous workload history concern this nerd. Can Solano be a major contributor at first base for the remainder of the 2025 campaign?

I believe that the Mariners should add another established hitter with first base experience prior to the MLB trade deadline. Not long ago, we discussed four potential candidates to fill such a need. But perhaps the team doesn’t share my apprehension, which wouldn’t be a surprise.

Let’s face it. Every person working in Seattle’s baseball operations department is way smarter than me and has greater access to data than the public does. Not only that, they communicate with the training staff and see the player on a daily basis. For these reasons, it’s possible the club is more comfortable with Solano and Luke Raley at first base than I am.

Then again, the Mariners could add minor-leaguer Tyler Locklear to the mix. The right-handed hitter currently boasts an .846 OPS with Tacoma. An out-of-the-box idea we recently discussed was using Jorge Polanco at first base, although he has zero professional experience at the position.

In about a month, we’ll know whether the Mariners chose to go outside the organization or stick with internal options at first base. Regardless of the club’s decision, I’ll be rooting for Solano’s star to remain bright. It’s much more fun watching players succeed than struggle.

Isn’t that right, Mariners Twitter?

My Oh My…