Four outfield trade targets to consider
If the Mariners were to pursue an outfield upgrade, these players intrigue me.
The Winter Meetings begin next week. So, let’s begin our Hot Stove chatter with four cherry-picked outfielders I view as intriguing trade targets for the Mariners.
To be clear, I’m assuming the respective clubs of these players are interested in dealing them this offseason. This may not be true. Furthermore, Seattle may be satisfied with Randy Arozarena in left field, Julio Rodríguez in center field, and some combination of Dominic Canzone, Víctor Robles, and Luke Raley covering right field.
Then again, speculation fuels the Hot Stove. We can temporarily suspend reality to assume the players we’re about to discuss are available and the Mariners are interested in acquiring them.
Steven Kwan - LF, Guardians
Selling points: Since debuting in 2022, Kwan boasts an outstanding 9.5-percent strikeout rate. Among 306 qualified hitters, only Luis Arráez (4.9-percent) was better.
Kwan has averaged 30 doubles annually. The former Oregon State Beaver’s 29 two-baggers this year would’ve ranked fourth on the Mariners behind Arozarena (32), Rodríguez (31), and Jorge Polanco (30).
Although Statcast rates his sprint speed as average-ish, Kwan has stolen 73 bases in four seasons. Arozarena (31) and Rodríguez (30) were the only Mariners to swipe more bags than Kwan’s 21 steals in 2025.
Since 2022, Kwan has a .321 AVG, .361 OBP, and .404 SLG whenever the temperature dips below 50 degrees. Considering the Mariners had the third most plate appearances in sub-50 degree conditions during this period, cold-weather numbers matter to this nerd.
The metrics validate Kwan’s four consecutive Gold Gloves. His 12 Fielding Run Value (FRV) this year was best among 46 left fielders. Moreover, Statcast rated him as the best outfielder at preventing extra bases.
Potential concerns: Kwan’s .374 SLG ranked 129th, just ahead of J.P. Crawford (.370). Not a surprise considering Kwan’s hard-hit and barrel rates were bottom-five.
Perhaps this is a nothing-burger. Kwan’s OBP dropped .038 points from the season prior. Just 12 hitters experienced a steeper decline in 2025.
The left-handed hitter wasn’t particularly productive against southpaws with a .581 OPS versus lefties and a .764 OPS against right-handers.
Jarren Duran - LF/CF, Red Sox
Selling points: If we use the FanGraphs version of Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) to define value, Duran (12.8 fWAR) is the 12th most valuable position player since 2024. Better than Corbin Carroll (10.9), Rodríguez (9.7), and Fernando Tatis Jr. (9.4).
Only 20 players produced a better average sprint speed than Duran’s 29.1 feet-per-second. This quickness permitted the Long Beach State product to lead the American League in triples the last two years and average 29 stolen bases.
No one played more outfield innings than Duran did in 2024-25. During this period, his 13 FRV was 14th best among outfielders. Like Kwan, the 2024 All-Star was exceptional at preventing extra bases.
Potential concerns: The left-handed hitting Duran isn’t that effective against left-handed pitching. During 2,128 big-league plate appearances, he has a .837 OPS against righty hurlers and a much lower .620 OPS versus lefties.
Strikeouts are part of Duran’s profile. His 24.3-percent strikeout rate was only two clicks above the MLB average, which isn’t terrible. But it’s important to recognize the Mariners struck out 2.4-percent more often at T-Mobile Park than they did on the road - the highest delta of any club in 2025.
Duran performed better at Fenway Park, baseball’s second-friendliest venue for offense. He wasn’t awful on the road, although the drop-off is worth mentioning.
Duran’s Home/Away Splits (2024-25)
Home: .289 AVG, .363 OBP, .517 SLG
Away: .256 AVG, .319 OBP, .446 SLG
Duran’s value took a hit this year. The California native’s fWAR dropped from 6.8 to 3.9, while FRV went from an outstanding 11 to a slightly above-average two. Meanwhile, his OPS fell 60 points.
Alec Burleson - 1B/LF/RF/DH, Cardinals
Selling points: Burleson’s 124 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) was 40th best. Only three Mariners with the team all season placed ahead of him - Cal Raleigh (161), Polanco (132), and Rodríguez (126).
Although Burleson isn’t as proficient at avoiding whiffs as Kwan, his 14.5-percent strikeout rate was 25th lowest. Unlike Cleveland’s left fielder, Burleson managed to deliver significantly more pop.
Forty-nine hitters had a higher SLG than Burleson - only seven had a lower strikeout rate. They were José Ramírez, Geraldo Perdomo, Cody Bellinger, Josh Naylor, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Yandy Díaz, and Bo Bichette. An impressive list of names.
The left-handed hitting Burleson didn’t have a significant platoon disadvantage. Against southpaws, he had a .271 AVG - good enough for 14th best among lefty bats.
Potential concerns: Burleson hit noticeably better at Busch Stadium, which Statcast Park Factors rates as average for hitters. As we all know, T-Mobile Park ranks last.
Burleson’s Home/Away Splits (2025)
Home: .302 AVG, .358 OBP, .500 SLG
Away: .278 AVG, .327 OBP, .420 SLG
Burleson’s 25.5 feet-per-second sprint speed ranked 250th this year.
The metrics consistently signal Burleson is a below-average defender. His minus-12 FRV since 2022 ties for 84th place.
Ronald Acuña Jr. - RF, Braves
Selling points: Only four of 215 hitters with 400 plate appearances this year bested Acuña’s 161 wRC+. They were Aaron Judge (204), Shohei Ohtani (172), Nick Kurtz (170), and George Springer (166).
Conventionally speaking, Acuña was second best in OBP with only Judge being better. A relatively high AVG helped propel his on-base numbers. So did a 17.2-percent walk rate that was outdone by just two hitters - Judge (18.2%) and Juan Soto (17.8%).
From a power perspective, Acuña’s .515 SLG over the past five seasons is 9th best. This is directly attributable to his top-15 hard-hit and barrel rates.
Potential concerns: As with Duran, strikeouts could become more prominent for Acuña if he were playing home games in Seattle.
Availability has been a challenge for Acuña, who’s been on the injured list every year dating back to 2020. All told, he’s averaged 101 games annually over the past five campaigns. ACL surgeries on both knees and an Achilles issue are the main culprits.
Injuries have seemingly eroded Acuña’s speed. When the Venezuelan debuted in 2018, he had a sprint speed of 29.6 feet-per-second. This year, he was down to 27.9 feet-per-second. Slightly better than average, but a considerable decline nonetheless.
We see a similar trend with Acuña’s defense. He went from one Out Above Average (OAA) in 2021 to minus-11 OAA this year, which ranked 107th of 111 outfielders.
Thoughts
For me, Kwan would be the best fit for the Mariners followed by Duran, Burleson, and Acuña.
Kwan doesn’t mash. But his excellent on-base ability, savvy base running, and top-shelf defense make him an ideal pickup for any serious contender.
It’s possible that Duran’s 2025 numbers reflect what he’ll be moving forward. If true, the 29-year-old would still be an excellent addition. After all, what club wouldn’t want to add a player with top-40 value to its roster this offseason?
Perhaps Burleson would be a better fit at designated hitter. That said, he’s capable of helping his club by playing a corner outfield spot or first base, when needed.
When healthy, Acuña is one of baseball’s best. For this reason, he merits discussion during Hot Stove banter. However, acquiring a position player who has missed 38-percent of his club’s games since the beginning of 2021 would be a risky undertaking.
My Oh My…