Each AL West contender faces a different challenge in September
The pressure is building in the AL West. What's the biggest hurdle each club must overcome to win the division crown?
We’ve reached Labor Day with the Mariners possessing sole possession of first place in the AL West. But realistically, the race for the division title remains a three-team affair with the Astros and Rangers breathing down the neck of Seattle.
Despite the similarity in win-loss records, I see each AL West contender facing a different challenge in its quest to win the division title. Let’s discuss the greatest hurdle I believe the Astros, Rangers, and Mariners must overcome to win the west.
First up, the reigning AL West titleholder and World Series champion.
Astros - Get solid pitching
The lineup continues to produce at a high level this season. But the pitching staff hasn’t been as dominant as it was in 2022.
Houston ranks thirteenth with an average of 4.3 runs allowed/game, which ranks twelfth this year. But this pales in comparison to last season when the Astros surrendered 3.2 runs/game, which was second-lowest in MLB.
Injuries to starters Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr., and José Urquidy helped erode the organization’s already-thin rotational depth. So did the departure of 2022 AL Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander via free agency last winter. On top of that, several starters have underperformed expectations in 2023.
The end result of its attrition and suboptimal production has been the starting staff taking a noticeable step back from last season when it was arguably baseball’s best.
The Astros did reacquire Verlander on August 1. But the future Hall of Famer’s presence hasn’t been enough to prevent the starting staff from having a 23rd ranked 5.21 ERA since his return.
Starter ERA’s Since August 1
Framber Valdez - 3.67
Justin Verlander - 3.86
Cristian Javier - 5.83
Hunter Brown - 6.85
J.P. France - 6.86
José Urquidy - 6.92
The bullpen remains an asset to manager Dusty Baker. However, the group hasn’t been as imposing for opposing hitters as it was in 2022.
A review of the xwOBA of individual relievers since August 1 reveals the usual suspects sitting atop the team’s leaderboard. That said, seeing the ever-volatile Rafael Montero leading the way might give some Houston fans a case of indigestion.
Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing. MLB league-average xwOBA for relievers = .313
Aug-Sep xwOBA of Relievers
Rafael Montero - .250
Ryne Stanek - .254
Ryan Pressly - .281
Phil Maton - .297
Hector Neris - .303
MLB RP xwOBA = .313
Bryan Abreu - .326
José Urquidy - .328
Kendall Graveman - .329
Parker Mushinski - .360
Seth Martinez - .494
To me, a significant concern for the Astros is the number of full-time relievers with an xwOBA better than the MLB average this season. Last year, Houston boasted seven such pitchers. For the full 2023 season, it’s five.
And no, Montero isn’t one of them.
Rangers - Rekindle the clutch bats
I usually shy away from offensive production numbers in “clutch” situations. Yes, I do believe it takes a special quality for a hitter or pitcher to perform under pressure. But oftentimes, clutch stats are small samples spread over multiple months, which makes me leery of putting any weight into them.
Still, it’s hard to ignore the recent struggles of the Rangers during certain high-pressure scenarios. Specifically, I’m referring to the following:
+ Go-ahead run at plate
+ Go-ahead run on base
+ Tying run at plate
+ Tying run on base
To see what I mean, check out the following table, which compares the Rangers’ production numbers during the preceding clutch situations in August-September to the rest of the season. It’s not pretty, folks.
After being top-10 in “clutch” wOBA early in the season, the team ranks near the bottom since the beginning of August. A closer review reveals most Texas hitters have underperformed in our predesignated pressure situations during this period.
Yeah, but the bullpen
By now, some of you are probably wondering why I didn’t identify relief pitching as the greatest challenge facing the Rangers. After all, it currently has a 47% save rate, which ties for worst in MLB with the White Sox.
The relief staff is undoubtedly the Rangers’ weakest link. But it’s unlikely this group will reinvent itself between now and October 1. For this reason, I chose to focus on clutch hitting, an area the club could conceivably improve upon this month.
Still, I believe there is a relationship between the team’s clutch struggles and the bullpen’s inadequacy that’s worth discussing.
Consider this. The Rangers have had 18 save opportunities during the 30 games the team has played since August 1 - noticeably more than any other month this season.
Could this spike in opportunities be a byproduct of a struggling lineup’s inability to expand leads beyond the three-run save threshold?
Perhaps. After all, Texas hitters were so productive in the first three months of the season the team managed to win five of 13 games when the bullpen blew a save. Since then, it’s happened just one time. Yesterday, when Adolis García hit a walk-off home run.
Bottom line: To win the AL West, Texas needs its offense to bail out the bullpen.
Mariners - Keep hitting
Seattle’s offense surged so much in August the team soared to the top of the AL West standings. The challenge facing manager Scott Servais and his hitters is sustaining this recent excellence into October. This may be a big ask.
During the first four months of the season, the Mariners averaged 4.5 runs scored/game, which was thirteenth-best in MLB. Since the beginning of August, Seattle hitters rank sixth with 5.8 runs scored/game.
To help illustrate who’s driven the recent uptick in offensive productivity, I compared the March-July wOBA of notable Mariners to what they’ve done since August 1. The main contributors are players you’d expect to excel. Furthermore, a pair of newcomers have also made a positive impression.
Deadline acquisitions Josh Rojas (.323 wOBA) and Dominic Canzone (.325) have essentially been upgrades over former Mariners Kolten Wong (.216) and AJ Pollock (.237). Whether the new guys can continue providing more value than their predecessors will be determined this month.
It’s probably too much to expect Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández to be league-leaders as they were in August. But if the duo, plus the majority of J.P. Crawford, Eugenio Suárez, Ty France, and Cal Raleigh produce up to preseason expectations, the lineup should be just fine.
In reality, the Mariners don’t need a top-three offense this month to become AL West champs. It’d be nice if they did, but being around tenth-best in key offensive categories should be good enough.
That’s assuming the pitching staff continues its season-long run of excellence.
My Oh My…