Does Isaac Paredes make sense for the Mariners?
Isaac Paredes has been mentioned before as a trade target. But would his skill-set fit in the Emerald City?
During a recent conversation with Wyman and Bob of Seattle Sports radio, Jon Morosi of MLB Network suggested Isaac Paredes of the Cubs as a trade idea to fill the Mariners’ need at third base. Paredes is an interesting name worthy of discussion.
One strength of Paredes noted by Morosi was the All-Star’s offensive skill-set. Since the beginning of the 2022 season, he’s averaged 22 doubles and 23 home runs to go with a .234 AVG/.338 OBP/.437 SLG. Furthermore, the right-handed hitter’s overall production, represented by a 123 wRC+, ranked 40th among 230 qualified hitters over the last three years.
Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantifies how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.
Morosi also pointed out that Paredes doesn’t whiff often. His 16.4-percent strikeout rate ranked 26th out of 129 qualified hitters this year. Just a smidge ahead of this winter’s biggest free agent, Juan Soto (16.7-percent). Bottom line: Paredes routinely put the ball in play, something many Mariners struggled to do in 2024.
On the surface, all of this sounds encouraging. But there are issues with Paredes that make me question whether he’d be a good fit for the Mariners and their home field, T-Mobile Park. Let’s discuss.
Not a Boomstick
Compared to the rest of baseball, Paredes doesn’t make a lot of loud contact. Among our group of 129 qualified hitters, only four had a lower hard-hit rate than what the Mexican produced with the Rays and Cubs (27.1-percent). Similarly, Paredes’ 4.5-percent barrel rate was 15th-lowest.
And why do these numbers matter for our conversation?
Look no further than this year’s league-averages on well-struck balls for your answer. MLB hitters produced a .490 AVG and .966 SLG on hard-hit balls and a .719 AVG and 2.402 SLG on barrels. Making loud contact matters - particularly at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park - and Paredes doesn’t make a lot of it.
Pull happy
Someone may point out that deadline acquisition Justin Turner managed to produce a .264 AVG/.382 OBP/.458 SLG at T-Mobile Park despite not making a ton of loud contact (31.3 percent hard-hit rate). Why couldn’t Paredes enjoy similar home success with the Mariners?
To me, Paredes and Turner profile differently as hitters. Paredes is much more likely to pull pitches, while Turner tends to spray his batted balls all around the field.
Among 90 right-handed hitters with 300-plus batted balls this year, Paredes’ 51.9-percent pull rate was second-highest behind only Rhys Hoskins of the Brewers. Conversely, Turner was exactly league-average.
For me, Paredes’ high pull rate is a distinguishing characteristic, which I believe would not serve him well at T-Mobile Park. Over the last three seasons, hitters at Seattle’s home field have collectively produced the third-lowest AVG on pulled balls.
Lowest AVG for RHH on Pulled Balls (2022-24)
PNC Park (.340)
Wrigley Field (.341)
T-Mobile Park (.345)
American Family Field (.350)
Angel Stadium (.356)
Yankee Stadium (.356)
Comerica Park (.357)
Nationals Park (.357)
Progressive Field (.357)
Rogers Centre (.359)
MLB AVG on pulled balls = .367
What I find both interesting and troubling about the preceding list is Paredes’ new home field, Wrigley Field, is just ahead of the ballpark at the corner of Edgar & Dave. This brings us to the next item raising concern for me.
Not so good in the Windy City
It’s a small sample, which I acknowledge up front. But after being dealt to the Cubs on July 28, Paredes’ production numbers at Wrigley Field were completely unlike what he delivered for the Rays and on the road with Chicago.
Again, I understand that 96 plate appearances at Wrigley Field isn’t a lot of information to draw a conclusion from. That said, two sets of stats from the preceding table stand out to me.
Paredes’ strikeout and walk rates at Wrigley Field were significantly worse than what he experienced with the Rays and as a visiting player with Chicago. This is suboptimal since putting the ball in play was a Paredes attribute cited by Morosi to Wyman and Bob. A 24-percent strikeout rate at home isn’t conducive to creating balls in play.
The other data points bouncing around in my head: Paredes’ hard-hit and barrel rates at Wrigley Field, which were noticeably worse than the other categories illustrated on the preceding table. At this point, it’s important to note that the only venues rated lower for right-handed offense by Statcast than the Cubs’ home field were T-Mobile Park and Cleveland’s Progressive Field.
Need for speed?
Paredes’ Chicago teammate, Nico Hoerner, doesn’t make a lot of hard contact either and is also a right-handed hitter. Hoerner posted 27.6-percent hard-hit and 1.2-percent barrel rates this year. Yet, I do believe there’s a better chance the Stanford product’s offense would translate better to T-Mobile Park than Paredes’. Why, you ask?
Hoerner sprays the ball around the field much more than even Turner. But more important to me, the 27-year-old is an above-average runner with a 28.4 feet-per-second sprint speed. In my mind, being fast gives a hitter a better chance of success on soft contact.
For context, Mariners with 100-plus competitive runs who were quicker than Hoerner were Julio Rodríguez (29.6 feet-per-second) and Luke Raley (28.9 feet-per-second).
Conversely, Paredes was not quick on his feet. This year, he had a 25.9 feet-per-second sprint speed (27 feet-per-second is average). Just 42 of 290 players with at least 100 competitive runs this season were worse. Among third basemen, he was 35 of 39.
The only Mariners ranking lower than Paredes were a 39-year-old Turner (25.4 feet-per-second) and Ty France (25.1 feet-per-second).
Finally
The combination of everything we’ve discussed regarding Paredes sets off a red alert in my pea brain. He’s a pull-happy right-handed bat, who doesn’t frequently produce loud or quality contact. Compounding matters for me is the notion of a 25-year-old already being one of the slower runners in baseball.
If Paredes were more fleet afoot, similar to Hoerner or current Mariner Víctor Robles, I’d have a higher level of confidence that he wouldn’t languish at T-Mobile Park like so many others have through the years.
In the end, I’d be surprised if the Mariners acquired Paredes. I just don’t see the fit with the team’s home field, which matters.
At least it matters to me.
My Oh My…