Dipoto’s DDT mantra has championship roots
Premium free agents might not be on the Mariners’ shopping list. But recent history tells us Seattle can win a World Series without signing a superstar.
Black Friday weekend is a fitting time to fire up the hot stove. After all, baseball fans everywhere want to be lavished with coveted (and expensive) free agents. That said, Seattle fans shouldn’t expect to find the Mariners shopping in the premium free agent aisle this winter.
Never say never. But whenever Mariners President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto discusses player acquisition, he emphasizes a draft, develop, trade (DDT) philosophy. At some point, Dipoto will mention free agency characterizing it as a means to supplement a roster, not build its foundation.
For the skeptical Mariners fan, Dipoto’s comments are a nuanced way of saying the team doesn’t want to spend money without saying the team doesn’t want to spend money.
I disagree.
Consider this; the rosters of the last three World Series champions were built using the draft, develop, trade strategy Dipoto espouses. This becomes evident once we review how much value each organization garnered from homegrown talent (draft and international amateurs), trade acquisitions, and free agents this year.
To quantify “value,” we’ll use the Baseball Reference version of WAR (wins above replacement). WAR captures a player's impact in all phases of the game. It’s a particularly useful tool when contrasting individuals playing different defensive positions.
Dodgers
The Dodgers have appeared in 10 consecutive postseasons. During this stretch, Los Angeles has made six League Championship Series appearances and three trips to the World Series. In 2020, the franchise won the Fall Classic for the first time since 1988.
WAR Leaders
Mookie Betts (6.4) - Trade
Freddie Freeman (5.9) - Free Agency
Julio Urías (4.9) - Homegrown
Trea Turner (4.9) - Trade
Tony Gonsolin (4.6) - Homegrown
Tyler Anderson (4.3) - Free Agency
Will Smith (4.2) - Homegrown
Clayton Kershaw (3.8) - Homegrown
Evan Phillips (2.8) - Waivers
Max Muncy (2.7) - Free Agency
When it comes to free agency, the Dodgers typically rely on short-term commitments. However, the team did go off-script last offseason signing 2020 NL MVP Freddie Freeman to a six-year/$162 million pact.
During their current run of excellence, the Dodgers helped two free agent castoffs develop into standouts. Justin Turner, non-tendered by the Mets in 2013, became a two-time All-Star and the 2017 NLCS MVP. After Oakland released Max Muncy in March 2017, he’s received MVP votes in three of his last five seasons as a Dodger.
Astros
The Astros are equally impressive. Six consecutive AL Championship Series and three Fall Classics, including titles in 2017 and 2022. Of our three champions, Houston received significantly more value from homegrown talent. Free agency, not so much.
WAR Leaders
Yordan Alvarez (6.8) - Trade
Justin Verlander (5.9) - Trade
Kyle Tucker (5.2) - Homegrown
Jose Altuve (5.1) - Homegrown
Jeremy Peña (4.8) - Homegrown
Alex Bregman (4.5) - Homegrown
Cristian Javier (3.7) - Homegrown
Framber Valdez (3.7) - Homegrown
Ryne Stanek (2.2) - Free Agency
Lance McCullers Jr. (1.4) - Homegrown
Luis Garcia (1.4) - Homegrown
This may surprise some skeptical Mariners fans. The Astros have managed to win two World Series without acquiring a superstar free agent. The club’s biggest signing was All-Star Michael Brantley to a two-year/$32 million deal prior to the 2019 campaign. Brantley accepted similar terms to re-up with Houston in 2021.
Braves
Since exiting a rebuild in 2018, the Braves have earned five consecutive NL East division titles and a World Series trophy. Similar to the Astros, players developed from within were central to Atlanta’s resurgence.
WAR Leaders (2022)
Austin Riley (6.5) - Homegrown
Max Fried (5.9) - Trade
Dansby Swanson (5.7) - Trade
Michael Harris* (5.3) - Homegrown
Spencer Strider+ (3.7) - Homegrown
Kyle Wright (3.6) - Homegrown
Matt Olson (3.3) - Trade
Travis d'Arnaud (2.9) - Free Agency
Ronald Acuña Jr. (2.8) - Homegrown
William Contreras (2.7) - Homegrown
*2022 NL ROY
+ 2022 NL ROY runner-up
The Braves’ lone noteworthy free agent started well before things went awry. Signed to a one-year deal for 2020, Marcell Ozuna performed so well Atlanta rewarded him with a four-year/$65 million contract. Since then, Ozuna’s production has cratered. Even worse, he’s faced MLB discipline for off-field incidents.
Mariners
Based on WAR, the Mariners received relatively low value from free agents. Instead, prospects developed on the farm and a boatload of trades brokered by Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander propelled the organization to its first postseason appearance since 2001.
WAR Leaders
Julio Rodríguez* (6.2) - Homegrown
Eugenio Suárez (3.9) - Trade
Cal Raleigh (3.8) - Homegrown
Logan Gilbert (3.2) - Homegrown
Ty France (3.1) - Trade
J.P. Crawford (2.8) - Trade
Sam Haggerty (2.2) - Waivers
Robbie Ray (2.1) - Free Agency
Erik Swanson (1.8) - Trade
Paul Sewald (1.6) - Free Agency
Andrés Muñoz (1.5) - Trade
Dylan Moore (1.4) - Free Agency
George Kirby (1.4) - Homegrown
*2022 AL Rookie of the Year
Since Dipoto took the helm in September 2015, the Mariners have signed just one major free agent - 2021 AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray (five-years/$115 million). That said, Seattle has benefited from under-the-radar free agents like Chris Flexen, Paul Sewald, and Dylan Moore.
Finally
Despite the good news story that was the 2022 season, the amount of talent the Mariners boasted trailed baseball’s best organizations by a large margin. For Seattle to become a perennial championship contender, this must change.
Fortunately, ownership has the wherewithal to begin closing the gap this offseason. According to Spotrac, Seattle’s payroll ranked 21st at the end of the season. Far behind our three champions and four other postseason clubs.
2022 Payrolls
1. Mets* - $287.1 million
2. Dodgers* - $280.6 million
3. Yankees* - $264.9 million
4. Phillies* - $256.3
5. Padres* - $242.1 million
6. Red Sox - $225.7 million
7. White Sox - $214.8 million
8. Braves* - $200 million
9. Astros* - $194.2 million
10. Angels - $193 million
MLB Average - $164.7 million
21. Mariners* - $128.7 million
*Reached postseason
Clearly, a jump in payroll is warranted. Especially for an organization lagging so far behind the teams it’s trying to emulate. A modest increase will happen thanks to salary growth among the arbitration-eligible and veterans with contracts calling for raises. But the greatest budgetary expansion will be driven by valuable players arriving via trade and free agency.
Recent acquisition Teoscar Hernández (projected to earn $14.4 million in arbitration) is the most recent example of Seattle’s payroll jumping due to a trade. So is Luis Castillo. After trading for Castillo in July, the Mariners inked the veteran to a five-year/$108 million extension. I believe the front office continues to pursue established talent (and their salaries) this offseason.
As for free agency, it’s possible the Mariners make a big splash signing a major name to an exorbitant long-term deal. But a more likely scenario involves adding lower-tier free agents unable to command lengthy, lucrative contracts. Brantley (Astros), Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), and Travis d'Arnaud (Braves) are examples of such players from our three champions.
Still, I wouldn’t protest if the Mariners committed a ton of dollars and years to a high-profile free agent like Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, or Trea Turner. It probably won’t happen. It might not work out in the long run. But it’d be fun to watch.
Back to reality.
Despite what the skeptical Mariners fan believes, Dipoto’s DDT mantra has championship roots. Look no further than the Dodgers, Braves, and Astros for proof. Based on this year’s results, Dipoto’s plan has Seattle on a similar trajectory.
Still, upgrades are needed. Otherwise, taking a step back next year is a genuine risk. For this reason, I suspect Dipoto and Hollander act aggressively this offseason to stave off a possible 2023 letdown. Hernández was their first impact acquisition. There should be several more before Opening Day.
Just don’t expect any of them to involve a premium free agent.
My Oh My…