Despite a taxing weekend, the Mariners' bullpen remains a strength
Despite a taxing weekend, the Mariners' bullpen remains a strength
A frustrating extra-inning loss doesn't signal doom for Seattle's relievers.
An MLB season is often compared to a marathon - a long-distance race not decided in its early stages. Yet, here we are. Ten games into the 2023 campaign with angst already building among a segment of Seattle Mariners fans who believe the club isn’t living up to expectations.
Expectations through 10 games?
In this economy?
Look no further than Mariners Twitter to sense the frustration consuming some fans over the team’s 4-6 start. On the website specializing in irrational thought and emotional outbursts, it doesn’t matter that no AL West team entered today with more than five wins. Nor does the 2022 World Series champion Astros having the same record as the Mariners.
Yesterday, a newfound outrage emerged amongst the ranks of the impatient when the Mariners’ bullpen hit a wall during a loss to the Guardians.
So, what happened?
Seattle relievers were heavily leveraged on Friday and Saturday following nine relief appearances and 18.1 innings pitched. Then, the team placed top reliever Andrés Muñoz on the IL and assigned an ineffective Matt Festa to Class-AAA Tacoma. All of this factored into the Mariners running out of arms by the twelfth inning of yesterday’s takedown by the Guardians.
Some Mariners fans blame this stinging defeat on the team failing to acquire relievers with marquee names in the offseason. Others prefer lambasting the bullpen utilization of manager Scott Servais. Personally, I came away from the weekend with a much more upbeat outlook about Seattle’s relief corps.
First, let’s not forget the Mariners boasted one of the best bullpens in baseball in 2022. Only the Dodgers pen was better (.274 xwOBA) than Seattle (.279 xwOBA). More importantly, just one of last year’s key relievers isn’t back with the Mariners – Erik Swanson.
Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing. The current MLB average xwOBA = .328
Furthermore, the Mariners’ bullpen is delivering similar greatness through the first 10 games of the 2023 campaign. Even after yesterday’s letdown, Seattle relievers boast the same xwOBA as last year, which is good enough for fifth best in the majors.
Top Bullpen xwOBA
MIN - .267
TEX - .268
PIT - .269
CHC - .272
SEA - .279
ATL - .286
NYY - .286
SDP - .288
BOS - .289
TBR - .297
MLB average xwOBA = .328
Yes, we’re just six-percent into that 162-game marathon. But it’s encouraging to see the bullpen picking up where it left off last October. And let’s not forget Mariner relievers were crucial to securing wins in the first two games of the Cleveland series despite the rotation accounting for just 9.2 innings.
Bolstering my confidence in Seattle’s bullpen even higher - the number of individual relievers boasting an xwOBA significantly better than the .328 league-average.
Top SEA Reliever xwOBA
Gabe Speier - .138
Trevor Gott - .210
Paul Sewald - .218
Matt Brash - .224
Penn Murfee - .232
Andrés Muñoz - .289
Diego Castillo - .307
Chris Flexen - .450
Matt Festa - .469
MLB average xwOBA = .328
Offseason additions Gabe Speier and Trevor Gott might not be the sexy names some Mariners fans wanted to see join the club. But both have been money for the team thus far. So have Muñoz, Paul Sewald, Matt Brash, Penn Murfee, and Diego Castillo.
Sure, the bullpen’s marathon route got bumpy over the weekend. But it’s played a central role in every Mariners win of this very young season. Barring a series of catastrophic injuries, I expect this trend to continue into October.
If I’m wrong, Mariners Twitter will undoubtedly let me know about it - they always do.
Then again, I feel pretty confident in the bullpen the Mariners have built.
My Oh My….