Checking in on Kolten Wong

Perhaps the best is yet to come for Seattle's Opening Day second baseman.

Ron Schwane / AP Images

When the Mariners acquired Kolten Wong in the offseason, a segment of fans voiced disappointment with the move. To them, Wong replacing former second baseman Adam Frazier was, at best, a lateral move. Others openly expressed the belief Frazier was a better option for Seattle than the Hawaiian.

Fast forward to the present.

Those having reservations about Wong may feel vindicated, but exasperated at the same time. The 32-year-old’s production numbers as a Mariner are significantly worse than what he’s delivered during his 11-year career.

The root cause of what’s driving Wong’s struggles is beyond the comprehension of this dumb blogger. But there are metrics that may provide a measure of insight into what’s going on with the left-handed hitter.

Strikeouts

Wong has been adept at avoiding swings and misses, although his current strikeout rate is higher than any season of his big-league career.

Wong’s SO%
2013 - 19.4%
2014 - 16.4%
2015 - 15.5%
2016 - 14.4%
2017 - 14.6%
2018 - 14.7%
2019 - 15.1%
2020 - 14.4%
2021 - 16.9%
2022 - 17.7%
2023 - 21.3%

MLB average strikeout rate = 22.9%

It’s important to recognize Wong’s strikeout rate is slightly better than league-average. Moreover, only Ty France (14.2%) and J.P. Crawford (19.6%) are the only Mariners with a lower percentage. Still, striking out as often as he has this year is uncharacteristic for the 22nd overall pick of the 2011 draft.

Walks

Despite an uptick in strikeouts, Wong is managing to earn free passes at a much better pace than his career average (7.7%).

Wong’s Walk Rate
2013 - 4.8%
2014 - 4.9%
2015 - 5.9%
2016 - 9.4%
2017 – 10%
2018 - 7.6%
2019 - 8.6%
2020 - 9.6%
2021 - 6.3%
2022 - 9.3%
2023 - 10%

MLB walk rate = 8.8%

Hard-hit rate

Having a respectable strikeout rate and a better-than-average walk rate means Wong is putting a lot of balls in play, as he always has. Unfortunately, his hard-hit rate is noticeably lower than recent years. As a result, more batted balls are becoming outs than in the past.

Wong’s Hard-Hit Rate
2015 - 33.8%
2016 - 26.3%
2017 - 28.9%
2018 - 30.9%
2019 - 25.4%
2020 - 26.6%
2021 - 34.8%
2022 - 35.5%
2023 - 22.2%

MLB hard-hit rate = 39%

I doubt anyone expects Wong to make as much loud contact as Julio Rodríguez does. On the other hand, a hard-hit rate closer to what he produced over the last two seasons (35.2%) would undoubtedly lead to more batted ball events becoming hits.

Sweet spot percentage

Sweet Spot percentage (SwSp%) quantifies how often a player produces batted balls with a launch angle between eight and 32 degrees. And what’s the relevance of this advanced metric with regards to Wong?

The league has .591 AVG and .595 expected average (xBA) on balls with a launch angle falling within the sweet spot range. Wong has been even better - .615 AVG and .686 xBA. But there’s a catch.

There’s always a catch.

Wong’s SwSp% has cratered this year. In fact, it’s lower than any season dating back to the beginning of the Statcast era in 2015.  

Wong’s Sweet Spot Percentage
2015 - 31.9%
2016 - 30.1%
2017 - 32.9%
2018 - 26.5%
2019 - 28.6%
2020 - 31.2%
2021 - 35.3%
2022 - 33.5%
2023 - 24.1%

MLB average = 33.9%

Just to be clear, hitting the ball with the sweet spot of the bat doesn’t guarantee automatic success. But I do believe SwSp% is an important indicator of contact quality. In Wong’s case, it hasn’t been good in 2023.

Now, let’s shift gears and address the other issue perplexing fans about Wong.

The defense rests

There is a perception Wong’s defense has been terrible. There’s no denying the 32-year-old has made several stunningly frustrating miscues in the field. But is it really that bad?

I’m not so sure. Not yet, at least.

Wong’s defensive lapses in 2022 was an oft-discussed topic during the offseason. The two-time Gold Glover had an uncharacteristically poor season accruing -10 outs above average (OAA). Only Nolan Gorman of the Cardinals (-12 OAA) ranked worse than Wong did among 38 qualified second basemen.

Still, this season doesn’t look so bad thus far. Wong’s OAA is currently zero (league-average). Granted, it’s a small sample and we should permit advanced defensive metrics to mature before using them to make definitive conclusions. But OOA suggests Wong hasn’t been as terrible in the field as some Mariners fans believe.

Yes, I’m relying heavily on OAA and it’s possible I’ll regret doing so later this season. But this Statcast product reflects factors that matter to me. It considers how far a fielder must travel to reach a ball, the time needed to reach the point of intercept, his distance from the base he’s throwing to, and the speed of the runner.

If you want to know more about OAA, Mike Petriello of MLB wrote an excellent introductory piece about the metric in 2020.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t note that Statcast rates Wong’s throwing arm as the weakest among second baseman, just as it did last year when he ranked last of 70 second basemen. That said, please note the name appearing at number-67 - Jose Altuve. I don’t recall anyone in Houston griping about Altuve’s arm. Furthermore, Wong’s arm strength rated low in 2019-20 when he won consecutive Gold Gloves.

To me, the real issue with Wong is offensive output, not defense. If the slash-line was aligned with his career averages, there would be a lot less chirping about the glove work.

Do we have a heartbeat?

Having said all that, I believe remaining optimistic, or at least patient, with Wong is advisable. Most of the offensive metrics we discussed are showing signs of improvement over the last two weeks.

Wong Since April 23
23 PA
9 Hits
1 Double
13 SO%
8.7 BB%
.429 AVG
.478 OBP
.476 SLG
.425 wOBA
33.3 SwSp%
22.2 HH%

Am I guaranteeing Wong is back on track? No, he’ll have to sustain his recent success over a much longer timeframe than two weeks. Plus, the hard-hit rate remains very low. That said, I suspect the extra-base power in his lefty bat would return once the timing (reflected by SwSp%) stabilizes.

Finally

What I’ve recently seen from Wong gave me the courage to say on Twitter last weekend that he could be on the brink of a breakout. The replies were priceless, yet predictable.

Perhaps time proves me wrong. After all, this two-week span is a small sample of the small sample known as the 2023 season. It’s plausible Wong’s first year as a Mariner falls further into the offensive abyss as soon as this weekend against the Astros.

Then again, Jarred Kelenic is the only Mariner with more hits (10) than Wong (9) since April 23. This is a valid reason to give the Hawaii alum more time to figure things out.

At least it’s a valid reason for me.

My Oh My…