AL West Primer: Texas Rangers

Will Texas return to the postseason this year?

Charlie Riedel / Associated Press

The Rangers went from World Series champion to a 78-win third place finisher in the AL West. The lineup took a big step back, scoring a below-average 4.2 runs per-game after producing a third-best 5.4 runs the season prior.

The pitching was worse than the offense. There were a few solid performers. But the staff’s overall body of work was inadequate. The starting rotation was particularly ineffective with injuries playing a big role in its downfall. As a result, just two Rangers made more than 20 starts.

Notable departures: Andrew Heaney (SP), Max Scherzer (SP), David Robertson (RP), Kirby Yates (RP), José Leclerc (RP), José Ureña (RP), Andrew Chafin (RP), Travis Jankowski (OF), Carson Kelly (C), Nathaniel Lowe (1B)

Looking ahead

The Rangers are counting on rebounds by underperforming hitters and contributors slowed by injury. With two exceptions, the Opening Day lineup will closely resemble what manager Bruce Bochy used last year.

One of those struggling hitters was catcher Jonah Heim. After a breakout season in 2023 that included an All-Star selection and Gold Glove, Heim posted a .220 AVG and .336 SLG. His 71 OPS+ suggests his productivity was 29-percent worse than the average hitter.

On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always average. Therefore, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average.

Marcus Semien also provided significantly less production than expected. After being a finalist for the 2023 AL MVP, the 34-year-old had a pedestrian .237 AVG, .391 SLG, and 100 OPS+.

Adolis García experienced the worst full season of his career. García slugged .400 and hit 25 home runs. But the 32-year-old had a suboptimal .284 OBP and 94 OPS+. Furthermore, his minus-12 OAA ranked last of 42 qualified right fielders.

Outs Above Average (OAA) is a range-based metric that quantifies how many outs a defender has saved compared to the average player. League-average is always ZERO. Source: Baseball Savant

Leody Taveras doesn’t possess the offensive résumé of Semien or García. Yet, Taveras did provide average run production (101 OPS+) during his club’s World Series campaign before regressing to a more normal 84 OPS+ last season.

On the injury front, Josh Jung (wrist) and Evan Carter (back) appeared in a combined 91 games. Losing these promising hitters, who performed well in 2023, was a major setback. Jung was an All-Star, produced a 113 OPS+, and finished fourth on the AL Rookie of the Year ballot.

Carter was a September call-up. Therefore, his stats were a small sample. But as a 20-year-old, the Tennessean managed to put up a .303 AVG and .985 OPS in 146 regular season and playoff plate appearances.

While multiple hitters scuffled, there were several good news stories. Corey Seager hit a team-leading 30 home runs and produced an impressive .278 AVG, .353 OBP, .512 SLG and 145 OPS+. The 30-year-old accomplished all of this despite missing most of September with a sports hernia.

Rookie Wyatt Langford debuted with a .325 OBP, .415 SLG, and 111 OPS+. The fourth overall pick of 2023 also contributed 25 doubles and 16 home runs and received Rookie of the Year votes.

Utility-man Josh Smith (110 OPS+) was extremely valuable, while covering for Jung and Seager during their respective absences. So much so, the LSU product was recognized for his offensive excellence with a Silver Slugger.

Turning our attention to offseason additions, Jake Burger, Joc Pederson, and Kyle Higashioka are the noteworthy new guys. Burger takes over for Nathaniel Lowe at first base. The 28-year-old had a .301 OBP and .460 SLG with 29 home runs last year. That said, Burger does have a career 27.5-percent strikeout rate.

The left-handed hitting Pederson posted an impressive 151 OPS+ in 2024. But since 2022, he’s averaged just 50 plate appearances versus southpaws each season. It’ll be interesting to see how Bochy utilizes the 32-year-old.

Key Position Players (and 2024 OPS+)

1B - Jake Burger (103)
2B - Marcus Semien (105)
SS - Corey Seager (145)
3B - Josh Jung (104)
LF - Wyatt Langford (111)
CF - Evan Carter (80)
RF - Adolis García (94)
DH - Joc Pederson (151)
C - Jonah Heim (72)

Higashioka provides insurance behind Heim. Last year, the 35-year-old hit a career-high 17 home runs. Defensively, he was a solid pitch-framer, although his pitch blocking didn’t rate as well.

Notable Reserves (and 2024 OPS+)

UTL - Josh Smith (110)
C - Kyle Higashioka (101)
OF - Leody Taveras (84)
UTL - Ezequiel Durán (75)
INF - Justin Foscue (MiLB)
OF - Kevin Pillar (88) +
C - Tucker Barnhart (42) +
UTL - Sam Haggerty (DNP)+

+ Not on 40-man roster

Finally, non-roster invite Kevin Pillar has a seemingly legitimate shot of making the team. Pillar hit 16 doubles and eight home runs with the Angels and White Sox last year, although he had a subpar 88 OPS+. That said, the 36-year-old demonstrated above-average speed and was considered a good defender.

Starting rotation

Once again, health-related concerns are casting a shadow of doubt over the starting staff. Two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom returned late last season after having Tommy John surgery in 2023. The team is exercising caution with deGrom’s workload. An understandable approach considering he’s made just 35 starts in the last four seasons.

Tyler Mahle, who also underwent TJ surgery in 2023, rejoined the Rangers last August for three starts before experiencing season-ending shoulder tightness. The 30-year-old recently had forearm tightness. However, he pitched four innings in a minor-league exhibition game on March 18 with no issues reported.

After three IL stints last season, Jon Gray won’t be ready for Opening Day. Gray recently suffered a fracture in his throwing wrist when he was struck by a line drive. Meanwhile, Cody Bradford, who missed about three months in 2024, will begin the season on the IL due to elbow soreness.

That brings us to Opening Day starter Nathan Eovaldi, who is healthy. The 35-year-old had a .306 xwOBA and 3.80 ERA in a team-leading 29 starts.

Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing.

Since we’ve been discussing injury histories, Eovaldi’s 29 starts last year were the most he’s made since the two-time All-Star started 32 games for Boston in 2021. Over the last three seasons, he’s been on the IL with groin, shoulder, forearm, and lower back issues.

After Eovaldi, deGrom, and Mahle, the Opening Day rotation picture is unclear. Short term, the Rangers likely turn to high-profile prospects Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter to fill the void created by the absences of Gray and Bradford.

Rocker had a 3.86 ERA in three starts with the Rangers last September. In nine starts at three different MiLB levels, the 25-year-old had an impressive 1.96 ERA and struck out 39.4-percent of the 155 batters he faced while walking just five.

Leiter appeared in nine games with Texas in 2024, including six starts. But it was a rough time for the 24-year-old, who had an 8.83 ERA and allowed seven home runs in 36.1 innings.

With Class-AAA Round Rock, Leiter had a more palatable 3.51 ERA, although he had a 10.6-percent walk rate. Frequently allowing bases on balls has been a recurring theme for the former 2nd overall pick. During his minor-league career, he walked 12.3-percent of opponents. In his final season at Vanderbilt, the right-hander had a 10.5-percent walk rate.

To replenish the rotation, the Rangers signed veteran starter Patrick Corbin on March 18. Therefore, Corbin may not be ready to contribute for a few weeks.

Starter stable (and 2024 xwOBA)

Nathan Eovaldi (.306)
Tyler Mahle (INJ)
Jacob deGrom (INJ)
Patrick Corbin (.357)
Kumar Rocker (MiLB)
Jack Leiter (MiLB)
Emiliano Teodo (MiLB)
Adrian Houser (.349) +
Michael Plassmeyer (MiLB) +
David Buchanan (MiLB) +
Caleb Boushley (MILB) +
Dane Acker (MiLB) +
Jon Gray (.331) - injured
Cody Bradford (.292) - injured

+ Not on 40-man roster

Dating back to 2021, Corbin’s numbers were arguably the worst in baseball. His 5.71 ERA during this four-year span was highest among pitchers facing 1,500 hitters. More recently, the 35-year-old’s .357 xwOBA in 2024 ranked last. Still, the southpaw has remained healthy.

Excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, Corbin has made 30-plus starts in seven consecutive seasons. This kind of availability has been in short supply in Arlington.

Eovaldi and Corbin are the only current Texas starters to pitch a full MLB season last year. Just two other pitchers exceeded 100 frames at any level. The currently injured Gray and Leiter, who did most of his work in the minor leagues.

2024 Innings Pitched by Top Rotation Arms

Patrick Corbin (174.2)
Nathan Eovaldi (170.2)
Jack Leiter (112.2)*
Jon Gray (102.2) - injured
Cody Bradford (82)* - injured
Kumar Rocker (48.1)*
Tyler Mahle (30.2)*
Jacob deGrom (21.2)*

* MiLB starts included

Bullpen

The Rangers lost multiple relievers over the winter. So, we’ll be seeing many new faces in the bullpen. The most interesting ones to me are Robert Garcia, Hoby Milner, and Chris Martin.

Just 11 of 175 relievers had a better xwOBA than Garcia did (.248). Among southpaws, only A.J. Puk (.210), Keegan Akin (.244), and Matt Strahm (.244) were better than the Cal alum.

Reliever pool (2024 xwOBA)

Robert Garcia (.248)
Chris Martin (.287)
Hoby Milner (.280)
Luke Jackson (.312)
Shawn Armstrong (.345)
Jacob Webb (.291)
Dane Dunning (.350)
Marc Church (.311)
Gerson Garabito (.385)
Jacob Latz (.342)
Walter Pennington (.361)
Luis Curvelo (MiLB)
Cole Winn (.350)
Jesse Chavez (.318) +
JT Chargois (.323) +
Matt Festa (.282) +
Joe Barlow (.297) +
Patrick Murphy (.36) +
Nolan Hoffman (MiLB) +
Codi Heuer (DNP) +
Robby Ahlstrom (MiLB) +

+ Not on the 40-man roster

Miller was an important contributor to Milwaukee’s bullpen for several years. But the lefty suddenly struggled against left-handed bats in 2024. Despite those issues, the former Texas Longhorn’s .282 xwOBA was 53rd-best.

Not pitching home games at Fenway Park should benefit Martin’s stat line. In Beantown last year, opponents slugged .442 against him. On the road, the 38-year-old allowed a .333 SLG. Furthermore, Martin had the lowest walk percentage among 203 relievers logging 40-plus innings.

Having said all that, it’ll be interesting to see who emerges as the closer since there is no clear-cut candidate.

Outlook

Carter and Jung remaining healthy and being more productive would be a tremendous boost for the offense. The presence of Burger and Pederson should help, too. Still, it’s reasonable to consider the future of two aging veterans.

Semien (34) and García (32) are firmly entrenched on the wrong side of 30. Was their disappointing 2024 a precursor to a bounce back this year? Or a harbinger of what’s to come?

That said, run production probably won’t be a primary limiting factor for Texas. Instead, the problematic rotation situation likely determines whether the team contends or is an also-ran. Simultaneously losing Gray and Bradford is a devastating blow. Especially for a staff, which includes so many unproven or ineffective pitchers. Many of whom have a spotty history of availability.

Perhaps time proves me wrong, it often does. But I struggle to see how the Rangers return to the postseason unless the starting staff provides more quality and quantity than it did last year.

My Oh My…