AL West Primer: Texas Rangers
AL West Primer: Texas Rangers
The Rangers have spent big bucks. But the team has yet to ascend in the standings.
Part-one of our AL West Primary series introduced us to the Oakland Athletics. An organization offloading its MLB talent and paring payroll over the last two years. Now, let’s shift our attention to the Texas Rangers. Unlike the A’s, Texas has been hyperactive in free agency.
Before considering what the Rangers might achieve this year, let’s reflect on the 2022 version of the ballclub.
Lots of dollars, not many wins
Before last season, Texas added over $50 million in payroll signing free agents Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray. But the 68-win Rangers managed to record just eight more victories than the year prior. Probably not coincidentally, manager Chris Woodward and President of Baseball Operations Jon Daniels were fired in August.
Still, the offense did make progress after being bottom-three in multiple categories two years ago.
It’s important to note last year’s improvement only made the offense average-ish. Better than a bottom feeder, but not good enough to contend.
To me, the lineup was too short. An indicator of this was having just four hitters with 250-plus plate appearances and an above-average OPS+. They were Nathaniel Lowe (141), Seager (119), Adolis García (113), and Semien (108).
On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always league-average. As a result, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average.
It’s worth noting catcher Jonah Heim delivered respectable plate production (98 OPS+) and elite-level defense. Last year was the switch-hitter’s full MLB campaign.
Another plus, Texas runners were disruptive on the bases with an MLB-best 128 stolen bases. Leading the way: Semien and García (25), Bubba Thompson (18), Eli White (12), and Leody Taveras (11).
While the offense provided encouraging signs, the same couldn’t be said about the pitching staff. As in 2021, Texas pitchers ranked in the bottom-third of MLB.
Still, there were several strong performers worth mentioning. Starter Martín Pérez had a career year with a 2.89 ERA and a .295 xwOBA. Gray also fared well in 24 starts with an identical xwOBA.
Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing . Last year, the MLB average xwOBA = .309
Veteran Matt Moore shined as a reliever after scuffling in recent seasons as a starter. Moore’s .263 xwOBA ranked 25th among pitchers facing 250-plus hitters. Only six relief pitchers logged more innings than the lefty’s 74 frames.
One of those six relievers was Moore’s bullpen-mate, Brock Burke. The 26-year-old made the most multi-inning relief appearances in MLB and had a .284 xwOBA.
José Leclerc also performed well (.278 xwOBA) in 39 appearances after returning from Tommy John surgery in June.
Moving forward, the Rangers will have to replace Moore, who left via free agency. Fortunately, he was the lone major contributor to leave this winter.
Departures: Matt Moore (RP), Kole Calhoun (OF), Kohei Arihara (SP), Charlie Culberson (UTL), Kolby Allard (RP), Nick Solak (UTL), Eli White (OF)
Who should I make the check out to?
Texas invested approximately $275 million in starting pitching this offseason. Pérez accepted the $19.65 million qualifying offer. The team then signed two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney, and Nathan Eovaldi. Veteran Jake Odorizzi arrived via trade.
And let’s not overlook a new skipper. Three-time World Series champion Bruce Bochy, who left the San Francisco Giants after the 2019 season, took the helm.
While there’s been a large turnover with the rotation, the position player group remains mostly intact.
Key Position Players (and 2022 OPS+)
1B – Nathaniel Lowe (141)
2B – Marcus Semien (108)
SS – Corey Seager (119)
3B – Josh Jung (83)
LF – Robbie Grossman (80)
CF - Leody Taveras (93)
RF – Adolis García (113)
C - Jonah Heim (98)
C/DH - Mitch Garver (99)
Notable reserves (and 2022 OPS+)
IF/OF - Brad Miller (69)
IF/OF – Ezequiel Durán (83)
INF/OF – Mark Mathias (159)
IF/OF – Josh H. Smith (63)
C/1B - Sam Huff (93)
OF - Bubba Thompson (77)
C - Sandy Leon (51) - NRI
1B/OF - Yoshi Tsutsugo (37) - NRI
OF - Jackson (nee Clint) Frazier (88) - NRI
OF - Travis Jankowski (33) - NRI
Please remember the positions listed above are just placeholders set by me. Injuries, performance, minor-league option implications, waiver claims, or trades could influence final decisions.
Lowe, Semien, and Seager return to anchor the infield and lineup. The newcomer is third baseman Josh Jung, who MLB Pipeline rates as its 34th best prospect. A year ago, Jung projected to challenge for a roster spot until he suffered a torn shoulder labrum.
Recently signed Robbie Grossman is the front runner in left field. But a platoon may make sense. Since 2022, the switch-hitter has been more productive against left-handers (.867 OPS) than righties (.639 OPS). Perhaps a team-up with left-handed hitting Brad Miller?
Leody Taveras is a favorite to start in center field. There are no doubts in his defensive acumen. But the 24-year-old must demonstrate he can hit big-league pitching.
It’s important to note Taveras is out of minor-league options. Therefore, he’d have to clear waivers to return to the Rangers minor-league system. The only other player on the 40-man roster with zero options remaining is reliever Josh Sborz.
García will hold down right field. But he did make 45 center field starts in 2022. Advanced metrics suggest he’s an above-average outfield defender.
An intriguing figure in the outfield mix is Bubba Thompson. The 24-year-old stole 49 bases in MiLB and 18 with Texas last year. Thompson’s 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed was second-best among 582 players. As with Tavares, his bat is an unknown quantity.
Heim is the starting catcher. But keep an eye on how the team uses Mitch Garver. The 32-year-old underwent season-ending surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right forearm last July. If the 2019 Silver Slugger shares time behind the plate with Heim, the Rangers may go with two backstops.
On the other hand, if Garver is predominantly a DH, Sam Huff could serve as a third catcher. The 25-year-old Huff potentially provides an extra layer of versatility with 61 professional starts at first base.
Mark Mathias doesn’t have much MLB experience, but he’s capable of playing all over the diamond and could earn a bench spot. The 27-year-old hit five home runs in 24 games last year.
A potential backup for Seager at shortstop could be Josh H. Smith. The 25-year-old is also familiar with third base, left field, and center field.
Rotation
It’s important to note Pérez is the lone member of the projected staff to make 25-plus starts in 2022. All told, the reimagined Rangers rotation made 101 combined starts last season.
Projected Rotation (and 2022 starts)
Jacob deGrom -11
Martín Pérez - 32
Jon Gray - 24
Nathan Eovaldi - 20
Andrew Heaney - 14
If deGrom, Gray, Eovaldi, and Heaney remain healthy and pitch effectively, the starting staff could be special. But that may be a reach for a group that’s struggled to remain available in recent years.
To see what I mean, take a look at when each projected member of the rotation last made at least 30 starts in a season.
Last time SP’s Made 30+ Starts
deGrom - 2019
Perez - 2022
Gray - 2018 (29 in 2021)
Eovaldi - 2021
Heaney – 2018
The three most troublesome arms for me are deGrom, Heaney, and Eovaldi.
deGrom, who turns 35 in June, didn’t make his first start last season until August 2 due to a shoulder issue. In 2021, the right-hander hit the IL twice with arm and back issues resulting in 94 lost days. Then again, it’s understandable why Texas fans would be pumped about deGrom’s arrival.
The Stetson alum produced amazing numbers in those 11 starts last year- a .234 xwOBA, plus 42.7% strikeout and 3.3% walk rates. Still, deGrom’s recent health history leaves me wary of his potential availability in 2023. I’m rooting for him to soar again.
In nine big-league seasons, Heaney has thrown more than 130 innings just once (in 2018). Last year, the lefty accrued 72.2 frames in 16 appearances/14 starts. The limiting factor was a shoulder problem costing him 105 days. Heaney previously experienced shoulder issues in 2017 and 2019.
IL stints due to shoulder and back inflammation limited Eovaldi to 20 starts last year. The right-hander made 32 starts and logged 182.1 innings in 2021. But that was the first time he surpassed 100 frames since 2018.
More worrisome to this dumb blogger, a steady decline in Eovaldi’s four-seam fastball average velocity as the 2022 season unfolded. Granted, I’m not a pitching expert. But a 2.8-MPH drop from April to September seems problematic to this nerd.
One last item regarding pitch health. Recent injury-related news out of Surprise hasn’t been good.
Just yesterday, Gray was scratched from his second start with a stiff back. Meanwhile, side soreness has kept deGrom from making his Cactus League debut. Eovaldi has made a two-inning start, but he’s now dealing with the same issue as deGrom. Also, sixth starter Odorizzi is experiencing arm fatigue.
Since it’s early March, it’s premature to be concerned with the health of the rotation. After all, the team will undoubtedly be using an abundance of caution with their marquee arms at this stage of Spring Training.
Still, having several key starters with a history of multiple IL stints dealing with health-related issues will undoubtedly receive scrutiny all the way up to Opening Day.
And perhaps into the regular season.
Some pundits question whether Pérez can repeat his 2022 success. As we noted earlier, the 31-year-old delivered personal bests in ERA (2.89) and xwOBA (.295) in 32 starts and 196.1 innings. Entering last season, Pérez had a career 4.71 ERA and .342 xwOBA.
Again, not a pitching expert. But I suspect Pérez will have to generate a ton of grounders to enjoy similar numbers. Last year, his 51.4% ground ball rate was fifth-best among starters. This undoubtedly helped the southpaw have a 1.3% home run rate, which tied for second-lowest in MLB with Houston’s Framber Valdez.
If Texas needs replacements for its top starters, the club has options with MLB experience. Odorizzi made 22 starts last year; Dane Dunning started 29 contests.
Rotation Depth
Jake Odorizzi
Dane Dunning
Glenn Otto
Cole Ragans
Spencer Howard
Cole Winn
Zak Kent - NRI
Jack Leiter - NRI
Jake Latz - NRI
Cody Bradford - NRI
Jack Leiter receives a lot of attention thanks to his last name and draft pedigree. But the pro record of the second overall pick in 2021 suggests more polish is needed before he’s MLB-ready. The 22-year-old had a 5.54 ERA and a 13.2% walk rate at AA.
Bullpen
Other than potentially Odorizzi, the Rangers didn’t add notable relief arms to the 40-man roster.
Bullpen Candidates
José Leclerc
Brock Burke
Jonathan Hernández
Taylor Hearn
Joe Barlow
Jake Odorizzi
Josh Sborz
John King
Yerry Rodriguez
Danny Duffy - NRI
Dominic Leone - NRI
Ian Kennedy - NRI
Reyes Moronta - NRI
Zack Littell - NRI
Jacob Barnes - NRI
The closer job is officially TBD. However, Leclerc makes sense to me. The 29-year-old is currently dealing with a neck issue that’s keeping him out of the WBC. But the club doesn’t appear concerned with Leclerc’s readiness for Opening Day.
Joe Barlow led Texas with 13 saves last year. But blister issues cost him most of the second half. Barlow, who dealt with similar problems in 2021, also underwent offseason wrist surgery.
Perhaps Jonathan Hernández closes at some point. Hernández had a decent comeback season (.313 xwOBA) following Tommy John surgery. However, his walk rate jumped from 6.4% prior to the surgery to 13% last season.
In theory, Burke could be a closer candidate. But his multi-inning dominance makes him extremely valuable in that role. Then again, southpaw Taylor Hearn was also an effective multi-inning weapon. In 41 relief innings, he held 171 opposing hitters to a .208 AVG and just two homers.
Moving up or status quo?
Owning three World Series rings certainly gives Bochy instant credibility with Rangers fans. But it’s worth noting the Giants had a losing record in each of the veteran skipper’s last three seasons when the roster’s quality began to deteriorate.
This brings us to the situation in Arlington. Did the Rangers give Bochy a roster capable of contending in 2023?
I have doubts.
The Rangers’ lineup has a solid core with Seager, Semien, Lowe, and García. But there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the remaining lineup contributors.
As for the rotation, it boasts notable names. But there’s so much volatility. If everything goes as hoped, the staff could propel Texas to the postseason.
Then again, hope is not a course of action.
Ultimately, the Rangers should be far more interesting than last year. But with the current roster, elevating to serious contender status may be just out of reach in 2023.