AL West Primer: Oakland Athletics
AL West Primer: Oakland Athletics
Hope may spring eternal. But hope won’t get the A's out of the cellar in 2023.
For years, I’ve compiled “preseason primers” for the Seattle Mariners and each of their AL West rivals. It’s a great homework project, which helps prepare me for the upcoming season. I also enjoy sharing what I’ve learned with readers. This tradition continues at Mariners Consigliere.
Let’s kickoff the series with the Oakland Athletics.
Free fallin’
Over the last two years, Oakland has dealt away most of its top talent. As a consequence, the A’s went from winning 86 games in 2021 to dropping 102 contests last year. The team’s offensive stats reflect the drastic decline in available quality bats.
Only the Detroit Tigers averaged fewer runs scored/game (3.44) than the A’s. Not a surprise considering only two A’s with 250-plus plate appearances had an OPS+ greater than the MLB average - Sean Murphy (120) and Seth Brown (116).
On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always league-average. As a result, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average.
Using conventional stats, the just one hitter had an above-average AVG or OBP: Murphy (.250 AVG/.332 OBP). Additionally, only the Wright State alum (.426) and Brown (.444) produced an above-average SLG.
Tony Kemp had a suboptimal slash-line (.235 AVG/.307 OBP/.334 SLG), although he did manage to contribute with 24 doubles and 11 stolen bases. Otherwise, it was slim pickings for the lineup. That said, the pitching staff wasn’t much better.
To be clear, the A’s did have useful pitchers. According to my go-to stat (xwOBA), starter Frankie Montas (.301) and relievers Dany Jiménez (.264), Sam Moll (.269), Zach Jackson (.292), Domingo Acevedo (.292), and Austin Pruitt (.302) were better than average.
Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing. Last year, the MLB average xwOBA = .309
The situation only worsened after a deadline deal sent Montas and closer Lou Trivino to the New York Yankees. Over the last two months of 2022, only the Colorado Rockies allowed more runs.
Notable departures: Sean Murphy (C), Cole Irvin (SP), Chad Pinder (OF), Austin Pruitt (RP), Sheldon Neuse (INF), A.J. Puk (RP), Stephen Piscotty (OF)
And your name is…?
The A’s mass exodus leaves few recognizable faces in camp. So much so, I suspect a casual baseball fan may struggle to name five players on the 40-man roster.
Please note the positions assigned are only notional. The Opening Day lineup may look much different for a variety of factors such as injuries, performance, minor-league option implications, or trades. But I wanted to provide a visual of current roster options.
Something catching my eye, a high number of versatile players.
Key Position Players (and 2022 OPS+)
1B – Seth Brown (116)
2B – Tony Kemp (88)
SS – Nick Allen (60)
3B – Jace Peterson (104)
LF – JJ Bleday (67)
CF – Esteury Ruiz (30)
RF – Ramón Laureano (92)
C – Shea Langeliers (98)
1B/DH - Jesús Aguilar (86)
Notable reserves (and 2022 OPS+)
C - Manny Piña (10)
UTL – Aledmys Díaz (95)
OF – Cristian Pache (34)
INF - Jordan Diaz (82)
1B/LF - Dermis Garcia (88)
UTL - Jonah Bride (63)
1B/OF – Ryan Noda - Rule 5
C/1B - Tyler Soderstrom -NRI
Brown is penciled in at first base, but he’ll spend time in the outfield. It’s worth noting the left-handed hitter has a career .527 OPS against southpaws. But the Oregonian was much better (.791 OPS) versus righties.
Considering Brown’s splits, expect to see right-handed hitting Jesús Aguilar at first base. In 2022, Aguilar hit 19 doubles and 16 home runs. Ironically, he’s had a better OPS (.737) against righties than southpaws (.684) during the last two seasons.
Rule 5 draft pick Ryan Noda averaged 27 home runs in two AA/AAA seasons. It’s conceivable the left-handed hitter pairs with Aguilar at first base.
Kemp and Nick Allen seem set in the middle infield, although more offense from the duo in 2023 would help. That said, 22-year-old Jordan Díaz may challenge for playing time at second base. Díaz also has experience at both corner infield spots.
Projected third baseman Jace Peterson has experience across the diamond. In 2022, Peterson started 67 games at the hot corner for the Milwaukee Brewers. The McNeese State alum also spent time at first base, second base, and both outfield corners.
In 2022, former Astro Aledmys Díaz made 15-plus starts at both middle-infield positions and left field. The 32-year-old also covered first base and third base.
To me, the outfield is an enigma.
JJ Bleday, once a Top-100 prospect has a .225 AVG/.337 OBP/.409 SLG slash in three MiLB campaigns. In 65 games with Miami, Bleday hit .167/.277/.309 with a 67 OPS+.
Prospect Esteury Ruiz may start in center field after leading MiLB with 85 stolen bases last year. Furthermore, only 12 big-leaguers had a faster sprint speed than Ruiz did in 2022. If the 24-year-old can produce with his bat, the A’s have a valuable everyday player. Otherwise, they have a fourth outfielder.
Ramón Laureano missed the start of 2022 due to a PED suspension. Upon returning, Laureano delivered a subpar .211 AVG/.287 OBP/.376 SLG and 92 OPS+. A rebound by the 28-year-old would benefit all involved.
If Ruiz doesn’t lock down the center field job, Laureano would be an option for manager Mark Kotsay. The five-year veteran has over 2,600 innings of MLB experience at the position and made 58 center field starts in 2022.
Last year’s Opening Day center fielder Cristian Pache may work his way back into the picture. But he’ll have to improve upon the .156 AVG/.205 OBP/.234 SLG he’s produced in 334 career plate appearances.
It’s important to note Pache has zero minor league options remaining. Therefore, he either has to make the big-league club or clear waivers before returning to the minors. Several other A’s are in the same situation. But their roster spots are more secure.
Players Without Zero Options
Cristian Pache (OF)
Paul Blackburn (SP)
James Kaprielian (SP)
Drew Rucinski (SP)
Domingo Acevedo (RP)
With Murphy gone, Shea Langeliers is the main catcher. Last year, opponents stole 13 bases in 16 attempts against Langeliers. But I wouldn’t dwell on it. His 1.93-second pop time tied for 11th best with Rookie of the Year runner-up Adley Rutschman.
Pop Time measures the time from the moment a pitch hits the catcher’s mitt to the moment the ball reaches the fielder’s projected receiving point at the center of the base. The MLB average on steal attempts of second base is 2 seconds. -Statcast
Still, catching depth is suspect. Projected backup Manny Piña, entering his age-36 season, missed most of 2022 with a wrist injury. Piña is the only A’s backup with more than 25 games of big-league experience.
Perhaps Tyler Soderstrom crashes the party. But it’s unclear whether the team’s top prospect would play first base or catcher. Maybe he covers both.
Rotation
Trading Cole Irvin pressurizes an already unsettled rotation situation. Irvin wasn’t dominant. However, he delivered length with a team-leading 181 innings.
Compounding matters, the lone holdovers from 2022 had a subpar xwOBA: Paul Blackburn (.315) and James Kaprielian (.332). Also, both dealt with injuries.
Projected rotation
Paul Blackburn
James Kaprielian
Drew Rucinski
Shintaro Fujinami
Ken Waldichuk
Rotation depth
JP Sears
Adam Oller
Kyle Muller
Adrián Martínez
Luis Medina
Freddy Tarnok
Hogan Harris
Daulton Jefferies - NRI
A middle finger injury cut short Blackburn’s 2022, although he’s supposed to be ready for Opening Day. Following the season, Kaprielian underwent surgery after shoulder issues prompted two IL stints. The 28-year-old reports he’s healthy.
Still, it’s tough for me to ignore Blackburn hasn’t pitched over 130 innings since 2019. Last year, he logged 111.1 frames. Kaprielian threw a career-high 147.2 innings last year and experienced shoulder issues.
On a positive note, MLB Pipeline rates rookie Ken Waldichuk as baseball’s 76th-best prospect. Waldichuk joined the A’s via the Montas deal.
Drew Rucinski began his MLB career as a reliever. But he’s been in Korea since 2019. Two factors to consider. Rucinski averaged 30 starts and 183 innings during four KBO seasons and had an impressive 66.7% ground ball rate last year. Perhaps the 34-year-old can fill the innings void created by Irvin’s departure.
Another overseas addition, Shintaro Fujinami, hails from Japan. Fujinami’s biggest challenge may be control. In 10 seasons, he had a 10.5% walk rate. But the 28-year-old did have a solid 8.2% walk rate in 2022 - his lowest since 2014.
Bullpen
Other than offseason acquisition Trevor May, Oakland’s stable of relievers consists of lesser-known arms. Fortunately, name recognition isn’t a prerequisite for success.
Relief options
Zach Jackson
Dany Jiménez
Trevor May
Domingo Acevedo
Sam Moll
Chad Smith
Kirby Snead
Adam Oller
Drew Steckenrider - NRI
Rico Garcia - NRI
Norge Ruiz - NRI
Jasseel De La Cruz - NRI
Deolis Guerra - NRI
Jake Fishman - NRI
Garrett Williams - NRI
Still, there’s one factor about the A’s bullpen bothering me - free passes. Among the team’s most prominent relievers, only May and Acevedo had a walk rate below the MLB average (8.2%).
2022 Walk Rates of Key RP’s
Domingo Acevedo (6.4%)
Trevor May (8.1% )
Kirby Snead (10.5%)
Sam Moll (11.8%)
Dany Jiménez (12.4%)
Zach Jackson (16.3%)
Chad Smith (17.7%)
Newly acquired Chad Smith only pitched 18 innings as a rookie with the Colorado Rockies last year. But his 10.7% walk rate in 217.2 MiLB innings isn’t promising.
Something else to consider. Three of Oakland’s main relievers lost a considerable amount of time to injuries last year. May missed 93 days with a stress reaction in his humerus bone. Both Dany Jiménez (84 days) and Zach Jackson (37 days) were lost to shoulder problems.
One non-roster invite to watch: Deolis Guerra, who missed last season due after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Guerra pitched for the A’s in 2021 prior to his injury and may be a dark horse for a bullpen spot.
Lowering the bar even more
Management likely sells at the trade deadline. Therefore, pending free agents and useful veterans could be wearing different uniforms by August. Candidates include May, any effective reliever, Kemp, Piña, Aguilar, Laureano, Peterson, and Aledmys Díaz.
Realistically, the A’s probably endure a second consecutive 100-loss season and may surpass the Oakland record for losses (108) set in 1968. Hopefully for fans, the team doesn’t approach the franchise record (118 losses) set by the Philadelphia Athletics in 1916.