AL West Primer: Los Angeles Angels
Will the Halos have a winning season for the first time in a decade?
The Angels lost a franchise-record 99 games in 2024, which was the organization’s ninth consecutive losing season. An inauspicious beginning for new manager Ron Washington, Anaheim’s fifth skipper since 2018.
From an offensive perspective, few things were done well with the lineup ranking near the bottom of MLB in runs scored, AVG, OBP, and SLG.
The stats of the pitching staff were even worse. It allowed too many base runners, too many extra-base hits, and didn’t strike out an adequate number of hitters.
Notable departures: Willie Calhoun (OF/DH), Carson Fulmer (SP/RP), Brandon Drury (INF), Matt Moore (RP), Kevin Pillar (OF), Hunter Strickland (RP), Griffin Canning (SP), Roansy Contreras (RP), Adam Cimber (RP), José Marte (RP), Patrick Sandoval (SP), Matt Thaiss (C/1B)
Looking forward
Several promising young bats are expected to play a big role in the run production effort this year: Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel, and Logan O'Hoppe. Neto led the Halos with 34 doubles, a .443 SLG, and 30 stolen bases. The 24-year-old’s 113 OPS+ indicates that he was 13-percent more productive than the average hitter.
On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always average. Therefore, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average.
As a rookie, Schanuel provided average production with a .250 AVG, .343 OBP, .362 SLG, and 101 OPS+. A nice beginning to a career for a 23-year-old drafted 11th overall in 2023.
After missing half of the previous season with a shoulder injury, the 25-year-old O'Hoppe played 136 games and hit 20 home runs in 2024. Third-most by a catcher behind Cal Raleigh (28) and Shea Langeliers (27).
A pair of productive veterans, Taylor Ward and Luis Rengifo, are also back. Ward hit a team-leading 25 home runs and had a 111 OPS+. Meanwhile, Rengifo delivered a .300 AVG and .763 OPS. Unfortunately, the Venezuelan missed 88 days due to three separate IL stints.
The biggest additions to the offense over the winter were Jorge Soler, Travis d'Arnaud, and Yoán Moncada. Last year, Soler hit 21 home runs and 34 doubles. The Cuban is a big bopper, but didn’t strike out too much (24.6-percent) and had an 11th-best walk rate.
The 36-year-old d'Arnaud, who will backup O'Hoppe, hit 15 home runs and had a 103 OPS+. Still, it’s important to note that the Lakewood High School product has averaged just 85 games annually since 2021.
Moncada was signed to play third base with the oft-injured Anthony Rendon sidelined indefinitely following hip surgery. That said, Moncada is dealing with a thumb injury, which could affect his Opening Day availability. The 29-year-old has been on the IL six times over the last three years, appearing in 208 games. Ironically, that’s just 61 more than Rendon during this timeframe.
Key Position Players (and 2024 OPS+)
1B - Nolan Schanuel (101)
2B - Luis Rengifo (116)
SS - Zach Neto (113)*
3B - Yoán Moncada (117)*
LF - Taylor Ward (111)
CF - Jo Adell (91) / Mickey Moniak (81)
RF - Mike Trout (140)
DH - Jorge Soler (121)
C - Logan O'Hoppe (100)
* Injured
Speaking of health, all eyes are on Mike Trout. The future Hall of Famer played 29 games last year after averaging 79 contests in his previous three campaigns. That said, Trout’s outstanding 160 OPS+ in 1,133 plate appearances since 2021 suggests he can still be extremely productive, when available. The team is moving the 33-year-old to right field in order to help keep him healthy.
With Trout exiting center field, the leading candidates to take over are left-handed hitting Mickey Moniak and right-handed hitting Jo Adell. Both possess above average speed. But Moniak has significantly more center field experience (184 games) than Adell does (15 games). That said, neither Moniak (81 OPS+) nor Adell (91 OPS+) distinguished themselves with their bats last year. Perhaps the pair will be used in a platoon.
Kevin Newman will cover shortstop until Neto returns from offseason shoulder surgery. Newman hit .278 last year and is an above-average defender. His 7 OAA ranked 30th among 158 qualified infielders.
Outs Above Average (OAA) is a range-based metric that quantifies how many outs a defender has saved compared to the average player. League-average is always ZERO. Source: Baseball Savant
Notable reserves (and 2024 OPS+)
INF - Kevin Newman (91)
C - Travis d'Arnaud (103)
1B/OF - Ryan Noda (38)
1B - Niko Kavadas (75)
2B/SS - Kyren Paris (MiLB)
C - Chuckie Robinson (MiLB)
OF - Matthew Lugo (MiLB)
INF - Scott Kingery (MiLB) +
2B - Christian Moore (MiLB) +
INF - Tim Anderson (27) +
1B/3B - J.D. Davis (83) +
+ Not on 40-man roster
If Moncada isn’t ready by Opening Day, replacement candidates include Tim Anderson and J.D. Davis. However, both veterans are 32 and coming off disappointing seasons.
Starting rotation
The plan to improve the starting staff involves relying on a foundation made up of two holdovers and a pair of veterans signed during the offseason. Tyler Anderson returns after making a team-best 31 starts. That said, his .322 xwOBA was worse than the average for starters (.317).
Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing.
The Halos’ most effective starter last season, José Soriano, had a 54th-best .309 xwOBA. Unfortunately, an abdominal injury and arm fatigue limited him to 20 starts. It’ll be interesting to see how management handles the Dominican Republic native’s workload. Soriano’s 113 innings in 2024 were easily the most he’s ever logged in eight professional seasons. The 26-year-old has also undergone two Tommy John procedures since 2020.
Newcomers to the rotation are Yusei Kikuchi and Kyle Hendricks. Kikuchi wasn’t having a good year until the Blue Jays traded him in July. With Toronto, the southpaw allowed an unappealing .272 AVG and .749 OPS. But with Houston, Kikuchi held opponents to a superb .188 AVG and .544 OPS.
Hitters had a .286 AVG and .442 SLG against Hendricks, who also had the worst ERA among pitchers with 130 innings. It’s also worth noting that the Dartmouth product doesn’t create a lot of swing and miss. His 15.4-percent strikeout rate also ranked last.
While the top four starters are settled, the fifth spot remains a bit squishy.
Starter stable (and 2024 xwOBA)
Yusei Kikuchi (.298)
Tyler Anderson (.322)
José Soriano (.313)
Kyle Hendricks (.336)
Reid Detmers (.314)
Jack Kochanowicz (.341)
Chase Silseth (.379)
José Suarez (.337)
Caden Dana (.400)
Sam Aldegheri (.325)
George Klassen (MiLB) +
Dakota Hudson (.370 ) +
+ Not on 40-man roster
The fifth starter will be Reid Detmers or Jack Kochanowicz. During 53 starts in 2022-23, Detmers boasted a 4.15 ERA. But his ERA climbed to 6.77 last season. By June, the 25-year-old was assigned to Class-AAA Salt Lake.
Kochanowicz debuted last July and had a 3.87 ERA in 11 starts. But a closer look reveals a .341 xwOBA with a .275 AVG and .417 SLG. Furthermore, his 9.4-percent strikeout rate ranked last among 368 pitchers facing 200 batters.
Bullpen
To elevate its relief corps, Anaheim signed closer Kenley Jansen. The 37-year-old held opponents to a .193 AVG and struck out 28.4-percent of the batters he faced. Still, only seven relievers facing 200 hitters had a worse barrel rate than Jansen’s.
Reliever pool (and 2024 xwOBA)
Kenley Jansen (.280)
Ben Joyce (.280)
Brock Burke (.237)
Angel Perdomo (Injured)
Ryan Zeferjahn (.200)
José Quijada (.343)
Hans Crouse (.290)
José Suarez (.337)
Chase Silseth (.379)
Michael Petersen (.348)
Victor González (.347) +
Garrett McDaniels (MiLB) **
Jack Dashwood (MiLB)
Connor Brogdon (MiLB) +
Ángel Felipe (MILB ) +
Michael Darrell-Hicks (MiLB) +
Kelvin Cáceres (MiLB) +
+ Not on 40-man roster
** Rule 5 pick
Setup man Ben Joyce had baseball’s highest average fastball velocity in 2024. Yet, his strikeout rate was an ordinary 23.2-percent. Unfortunately, the 24-year-old was shut down in early September due to shoulder inflammation. Considering Joyce’s history, could this premature ending to the season be a red flag?
The 53.2 innings Joyce logged last year was a personal best as a professional or collegian. In 2023, the right-hander was limited to 27.1 frames due to ulnar neuritis. The year prior, he threw 45.1 innings with Tennessee and Class-AA Rocket City. Joyce also suffered an elbow stress fracture and later had Tommy John surgery, while in college.
Another setup man, Brock Burke, could be an important contributor. Burke held opponents to a .218 AVG and .229 xwOBA in 21 appearances after joining the Angels last August.
Ryan Zeferjahn intrigues this nerd. As a rookie, he had a .200 xwOBA in 12 appearances and 17 innings. It’s a small sample, but Zeferjahn struck out 28.6-percent of the hitters he faced. He also had an outstanding 26.3-percent hard-hit rate and allowed zero barreled balls.
Lefty reliever Angel Perdomo is a late arrival to the mix after being acquired from the Braves on March 17. Perdomo missed last season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. The 30-year-old had an impressive 37.6-percent strikeout rate and .258 xwOBA in 30 games with Pittsburgh in 2023. That said, he does have a 12.4-percent walk rate as a professional.
Outlook
Never say never. But I struggle to envision the Angels contending this year. The offense will improve provided Soler continues to produce and Trout remains healthy. But will that be enough unless several young hitters take massive steps forward?
Kikuchi can help the rotation, although it’s unclear how much. Which pitcher will the Angels get? The Astro with an outstanding 36.1-percent strikeout rate in 10 starts? Or the Blue Jay with a strikeout rate that was 10-percent lower in 2022-24?
Beyond Kikuchi, the only other established starters are Anderson and Hendricks. Each is in their mid-thirties and provided below average production in 2024. Perhaps younger arms will emerge and make an impact. Then again, this organization doesn’t have a recent history of producing quality starting pitching.
My Oh My…