AL West Primer: Los Angeles Angels
Our AL West Primary series has already addressed the Oakland Athletics and Texas Rangers. Now, let’s dig into the Los Angeles Angels.
Los Angeles chose to improve the supporting cast around its marquee names with competent role players rather than make splashy moves in free agency this winter. Will this approach lead to a 2023 postseason berth?
Before considering this question, let’s review the Halos’ 2022 campaign.
Wash, rinse, repeat
For a seventh consecutive season, the Angels endured a losing campaign. Things got so bad manager Joe Maddon was let go in June. Ironically, the team had a worse winning percentage under replacement Phil Nevin (46-60) than it did with Maddon (27-29).
Results-wise, plating enough runs was the biggest challenge facing the Angels in 2022.
Having just four hitters with 250-plus plate appearances capable of producing an above-average OPS+ played a crucial role in the team’s offensive woes. Those players were Mike Trout (178), Shohei Ohtani (145), Taylor Ward (135), and Luis Rengifo (102).
On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always league-average. As a result, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average.
Unfortunately for the Angels, Trout appeared in just 119 games due to a back issue. Other key contributors missing significant time with injuries were Anthony Rendon (47 games played), Jared Walsh (118), and David Fletcher (61).
Still, there were pleasant surprises in 2022. Both Ward and Rengifo had breakout seasons. Ward hit 22 doubles and 23 home runs. He also had the second-highest AVG and OBP on the team behind Trout. The switch-hitting Rengifo exceeded his previous career totals with 17 home runs and 22 doubles.
And then there’s the awesomeness of Ohtani. His prowess at the plate and on the mound led to him being AL MVP runner-up and a fourth-place finisher in Cy Young voting. He wasn’t the only starter delivering value to the Halos.
The starting staff’s .304 xwOBA was eleventh-best in MLB, which is the highest ranking by a Halos rotation during the Statcast era.
Rotation xwOBA (and MLB ranking)
2015 - .310 (12th in MLB)
2016 - .344 (29th)
2017 - .346 (28th)
2018 - .321 (16th)
2019 - .342 (25th)
2020 - .336 (20th)
2021 - .321 (16th)
2022 - .304 (11th)
Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing. Last year, the MLB average xwOBA = .309
Along with Ohtani (.256), José Suarez (.302), Patrick Sandoval (.307), and Michael Lorenzen (.307) were better than the league-average xwOBA.
The bullpen’s .309 xwOBA wasn’t bad. But it wasn’t particularly dynamic either, ranking 20th in the league. Ironically, the pen had a better xwOBA (.293) after closer Raisel Iglesias was dealt at the trade deadline. Nevin’s top arms included Jimmy Herget, Aaron Loup, Ryan Tepera, and José Quijada.
Iglesias wasn’t the only player moved at the deadline. The Angels also traded starter Noah Syndergaard and outfielder Brandon Marsh. After the season, the exodus continued.
Departures: Kurt Suzuki (C), Michael Lorenzen (SP), Archie Bradley (RP), Magneuris Sierra (OF), Matt Duffy (INF)
Raising the floor
The most prominent position players added by GM Perry Minasian were outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Brett Phillips, plus infielders Gio Urshela and Brandon Drury. Minasian also acquired starter Tyler Anderson, plus relievers Matt Moore and Carlos Estévez.
The positions listed below are notional. Injuries, performance, minor-league options, waiver wire claims, or trades can potentially impact the Opening Day roster.
Key Position Players (2022 OPS+)
1B – Jared Walsh (81)
INF - Brandon Drury (122)
INF – Gio Urshela (121)
INF – Luis Rengifo (103)
INF - David Fletcher (77)
3B – Anthony Rendon (101)
LF – Taylor Ward (135)
CF – Mike Trout (178)
RF – Hunter Renfroe (126)
DH – Shohei Ohtani (145)
C – Max Stassi (62)
Notable reserves
C – Logan O'Hoppe (93)
INF - Andrew Velazquez (53)
OF- Jo Adell (79)
OF - Mickey Moniak (78)
OF - Brett Phillips (36)
C/1B - Matt Thaiss (84)
1B/3B - Jake Lamb (98) - NRI
INF - Kevin Padlo (-14) - NRI
The Angels loaded up on infielders in the offseason. But it’s unclear how the newcomers and holdovers will blend into a cohesive unit.
It’s plausible the team covers the shortstop position with two players - Rengifo and Fletcher.
Based on last year, Rengifo has the offensive edge, while Fletcher is the better defender. Fletcher’s bat lacks pop and a .292 OBP over the last two years highlights his recent struggle with reaching base. Perhaps the 28-year-old can recapture the form he demonstrated in 2018-20 (.346 OBP in 1,190 plate appearances).
It’s worth noting Rengifo and Fletcher also have second base and third base experience. So do newcomers Urshela and Drury.
Urshela’s history suggests his bat will be a welcome addition to the lineup regardless of the position he plays. Dating back to 2019, the right-handed hitter has an excellent 119 OPS+ in over 1,600 plate appearances.
Conversely, I’m not as confident Drury can repeat his successful 2022 when he was Silver Slugger. The eight-year veteran has a career 93 OPS+. Furthermore, he was far more productive in Cincinnati (128 OPS+) last year than after a trade to San Diego (109 OPS+).
Truthfully, how all the infield pieces will fit together is a mystery to me. But that’s okay. The team has Spring Training to figure things out.
Having so many versatile infielders does provide insurance to mitigate the loss of starters.
If Walsh were to suffer any setbacks from offseason thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. Drury and Urshela each have first base experience on their respective résumés.
Similarly, injuries have limited Rendon to 104 games and a 97 OPS+ over the last two seasons. Rendon, who’s entering his age-33 season, says he’s fully healthy. But having competent depth is a prudent measure.
The designated hitter and starting outfield pictures are clearer than the infield. Ohtani will be the DH when he’s not pitching. Ward projects to start in left field. As has been the case for over a decade, Trout will patrol center field. Renfroe will hold down the other corner spot.
On the other hand, who’ll be the fourth outfielder is a question to be addressed this month. Phillips, an elite-level defender with a below-average bat, appears to be the early favorite. Other notable candidates are pair of former first round draft picks yet to establish themselves in the majors - Jo Adell and Mickey Moniak.
As mentioned earlier, minor-league options can influence roster decisions. A player without any options remaining must clear waivers before being reassigned to the minors. It’s possible a club opts to retain someone with no options rather than risk losing them to the waiver wire, a trade, or free agency.
Perhaps this comes into play with the outfield, especially if all other factors are essentially equal. Phillips has zero options remaining, while Adell and Moniak each have one. Several other Angels on the 40-man roster don’t have a minor-league option left.
Players with Zero Options
Luis Rengifo - IF
Matt Thaiss - C/1B/3B
Brett Phillips - OF
José Suarez - SP
Tucker Davidson - SP
José Quijada - RP
Jaime Barría - RP
Advanced metrics rated starting catcher Max Stassi as an average-ish pitch framer and defender in 2022, while his 62 OPS+ suggest he wasn’t a productive hitter. Perhaps Logan O'Hoppe, the organization’s top prospect per MLB Pipeline, supplants Stassi at some point.
Matt Thaiss is the third backstop on the 40-man roster. He also possesses first base and third base experience.
Rotation
Anderson should bolster the starting staff. But it’s reasonable to wonder what a 33-year-old coming off a career season will deliver. The soft-tossing southpaw demonstrated superb command/control in 2022, which explains personal bests in walk (4.8%) and hard-hit rates (28.5%). But are those numbers repeatable?
To support Ohtani, the Angels will continue using a six-man rotation. That said, the team may have the two-way star pitch every six days regardless of how off days are set up. This means the sixth starter could periodically pitch out of the bullpen to keep Ohtani on schedule.
Projected Top-5 Starters
Shohei Ohtani
Patrick Sandoval
Tyler Anderson
José Suarez
Reid Detmers
Leading candidates for this hybrid role include Tucker Davidson, rookie Chase Silseth, Griffin Canning, Chris Rodriguez, and Jaime Barría. Remember, Davidson is out of minor-league options.
Canning was an Angels starter in 2019-21. Unfortunately, injuries have plagued the 26-year-old. As a rookie in 2019, elbow inflammation led to a pair of IL stints. A back injury cost him the end of 2021 and all of last year.
Bullpen
The Angels bullpen should resemble the 2022 version with two exceptions - free agents Carlos Estévez and Matt Moore.
Key Relievers
Carlos Estévez
Jimmy Herget
Ryan Tepera
Matt Moore
Aaron Loup
José Quijada
Andrew Wantz
Zack Weiss
Kolton Ingram
José Marté
Justin Garza
César Valdez - NRI
Chris Devenski - NRI
Austin Warren - NRI
Estévez, who spent six seasons with the Colorado Rockies, is an interesting pickup. The right-hander had a significantly better xwOBA (.271) on the road compared to mile-high Coors Field (360). Estévez projects to be the closer, although Herget and Quijada could also be options for the job.
As noted in the Rangers primer, Moore excelled last year with a top-25 xwOBA and proved capable of pitching multiple innings. Still, there’s one aspect of his 2022 record that bugs me.
Moore had a 12.5% walk rate, which tied for ninth-highest among 144 relievers with 50-plus innings. I’m not suggesting the 33-year-old is going to crater. But allowing free passes at such a high rate in 2023 could prove problematic.
Well?
Minasian has done a nice job of improving his roster depth. However, this team’s success still hinges on the availability of its star players and how they’re utilized.
To this dumb blogger, Trout remains the best player in baseball. But he’s appeared in just 155 contests over the last two years. Dating back to 2016, the three-time AL MVP has played in 65.8% of his club’s games. Similarly, Rendon, has appeared in 40.8% of Angels games since joining the organization in 2020.
Management believes a six-man rotation benefits Ohtani’s availability, which is hard to dispute. But the downside to this strategy is fewer starts. therefore less value received, from Ohtani, Anderson, and the staff’s other quality arms. For a club likely to be on the fringe of contention, that’s a risky proposition.
If the season doesn’t go as planned, the baseball world will be watching to see whether the Angels deal pending free agent Ohtani prior to the trade deadline. Other players potentially available under this scenario include Renfroe, Urshela, Moore, Phillips, Ryan Tepera, and any effective reliever.
And the answer to our initial question?
To me, the Angels are capable of contending for a postseason berth. That said, the current margin between being a playoff team and being an also-ran is precariously thin.