AL West Primer: Houston Astros

Can the king remain on top of the hill?

Jeff Roberson / AP Images

Last June 18, the Astros had a 33-40 record and were 10 games behind the division-leading Mariners. The team would then have the best record in the AL for the rest of the season under first-year manager Joe Espada and earn its fourth consecutive AL West title. But for the first time in nine seasons, Houston didn’t reach the League Championship Series.

As usual, the offense was excellent. Yet, finishing 10th in runs scored was the lineup’s lowest ranking since the 2016 campaign.

The pitching staff did its part, too. Other than home runs and walks, Houston arms were significantly above average in multiple categories.

Notable departures: Alex Bregman (3B), Kyle Tucker (RF), Ryan Pressly (RP), Kendall Graveman (RP), Yusei Kikuchi (SP), Caleb Ferguson (RP), Jason Heyward (OF), Héctor Neris (RP), Justin Verlander (SP), Seth Martinez (RP),

Looking ahead

There’s been substantial infield turnover since October. New arrival Christian Walker will stabilize first base, which lacked productivity and continuity in 2024. The 33-year-old has been dealing with an oblique strain but is expected to be ready for Opening Day.

Walker is an elite defender with three consecutive Gold Gloves. He also produced a .335 OBP, .468 SLG, and 121 OPS+. One thing to watch with the Pennsylvanian this year. He experienced a five-percent climb in his strikeout rate, which rose to 24.1-percent last season.

On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always average. Therefore, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average.

Isaac Paredes takes over for longtime third baseman Alex Bregman. With the Rays and Cubs last year, Paredes hit 25 doubles and 19 home runs with a .346 OBP and 112 OPS+. The 26-year-old infrequently makes damaging contact (27.1-percent hard-hit and 4.5-percent barrel rates). But he pulls the ball a lot, which may benefit him at his new ballpark.

In 2024, Paredes had the second-highest pull rate among right-handed hitters. Dating back to the beginning of the Statcast era in 2015, balls pulled to left field at the former Minute-Maid Park have produced more home runs than any venue. Furthermore, only Fenway Park generated more doubles than Houston’s home field.

And in a move no one expected, career second baseman Jose Altuve will be Houston’s everyday left fielder. Altuve had another great season with a .295 AVG, 31 doubles, 20 home runs, and a 126 OPS+. But he’s never played in the outfield during 18 professional seasons.

The lone holdover from last year’s Opening Day infield is shortstop Jeremy Peña. The 27-year-old led the team in games played (157), while adding 26 doubles, stealing 20 bases, and hitting .266 with a 100 OPS+.

Mauricio Dubón, who’s made 11 starts at second base this spring, is a top candidate to replace Altuve at the position. The Honduran hit .278 with 25 doubles and boasted a 12th-best strikeout rate. Still, selecting Dubón for the keystone would be a curious choice.

Using Dubón as a full-time second baseman would forsake his value as a Swiss Army knife. Last year, the 30-year-old made starts at every infield and outfield position. According to Statcast, he delivered average-or-better defense at each spot accruing 10 OAA. Not a surprise considering Dubón earned a Gold Glove as a utility-man in 2023.

Outs Above Average (OAA) is a range-based metric that quantifies how many outs a defender has saved compared to the average player. League-average is always ZERO. Source: Baseball Savant

Rest assured, no one in the Astros organization cares what I think. But going with non-roster invitee Brendan Rodgers at second base seems sensible to this nerd. Last season with Colorado, Rodgers had a 95 OPS+, which was 11-percent better than Dubón. Furthermore, Rodgers was a Gold Glover at second base three seasons ago.

Granted, Rodgers accrued minus-3 OAA at second base last year. But that’s much better than what Altuve did (minus-9). Perhaps playing home games at an elevation closer to sea level rekindles Rodgers’ formerly elite defense and helps his bat, too.

Playing next to Altuve will be Jake Meyers. Historically, the 28-year-old’s bat has been below average (career 86 OPS+). But Meyers is a premium defender. The Nebraska native’s 14 OAA last year tied for fifth-most among 41 qualified center fielders.

Chas McCormick initially appeared to be the favorite to replace Kyle Tucker in right field. But Cam Smith, a career third baseman, has been getting a cram course at the position lately. The player drafted 14th overall last year appears to have a legitimate shot at being Houston’s Opening Day right fielder.

If the Astros decide to go young in right field, Zach Dezenzo would seem to be a more conventional choice. The 24-year-old has primarily been a corner infielder. But he did reach AAA-level last year and appeared in 20 games with Houston, including one contest in the postseason.

Key Position Players (and 2024 OPS+)

1B - Christian Walker (121)
2B - Mauricio Dubón (88)
SS - Jeremy Peña (100)
3B - Isaac Paredes (112)
LF - Jose Altuve (126)
CF - Jake Meyers (85)
RF - Chas McCormick (66) / Cam Smith (MiLB)
C - Yainer Diaz (118)
DH - Yordan Alvarez (172)

There’s no uncertainty regarding Houston’s designated hitter Yordan Alvarez, who continued to be one of baseball’s best run producers last year. Only Aaron Judge (223), Shohei Ohtani (190), and Juan Soto (178) had a higher OPS+ than what the Cuban produced (172).

Another sure thing is Yainer Diaz behind the plate. In his first full season as Houston’s full-time catcher, Diaz had a .299 AVG with 29 doubles and 16 home runs.

Notable Reserves (and 2024 OPS+)

1B - Jon Singleton (105)
C - Victor Caratini (113)
1B/3B/OF - Zach Dezenzo (MiLB)
OF - Cooper Hummel (MiLB)
C - César Salazar (MiLB)
2B - Brendan Rodgers (94) +
INF - Luis Guillorme (64) +
INF - Zack Short (32) +
C - Pedro León (MiLB) *
OF - Taylor Trammell (MiLB) *

+ Not on 40-man roster
* Injured

Backing up Diaz for a second season is veteran Victor Caratini. The 31-year-old was also a productive bat with a 113 OPS+ in 274 plate appearances.

Last season, once-heralded prospect Jon Singleton led the Astros with 86 starts at first base. The 33-year-old provided slightly above average production (103 OPS+). However, Singleton lacks positional versatility and is essentially a first baseman or DH. It’s possible that his roster status hinges on whether Walker is ready for Opening Day.

Starting rotation

Framber Valdez anchors the rotation. Last year, the left-hander’s .287 xwOBA was 18th-best among pitchers facing 500 batters. A key component to his success was a 60.6-percent ground ball rate - highest among qualified pitchers. It’s worth noting the two-time All-Star missed three weeks last season due to elbow inflammation.

Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing.

Hunter Brown had a breakout campaign posting a .281 xwOBA that was best among Houston starters. Like Valdez, the right-hander had a top-10 ground ball rate. Brown also tied for the lowest hard-hit rate with San Diego’s Michael King. If the 26-year-old continues his ascent, he could receive Cy Young consideration as early as this year.

As a 30-year-old rookie last season, Ronel Blanco tossed a no-hitter in his second MLB start. He went on to have an excellent 2.80 ERA with a solid .309 xwOBA. The right-handed hurler also had the lowest opponent AVG of any qualified pitcher.

Spencer Arrighetti didn’t experience a great rookie debut as Blanco did last year. Through his first 14 career starts, Arrighetti had a 5.68 ERA with opponents having a .361 OBP against him. But in his final 14 starts, the 25-year-old garnered better results with a 3.80 ERA and .307 OBP. His strikeout rate also rose three points to 28.7-percent.

Perhaps I’m misreading the situation. But it appears that Hayden Wesneski (.315 xwOBA) will round out the rotation. This would be puzzling to me since Wesneski spent more time in the bullpen than as a starter in 2024. Furthermore, the 27-year-old missed two months last summer with a forearm strain.

Starter stable (and 2024 xwOBA)

Framber Valdez (.287)
Hunter Brown (.281)
Ronel Blanco (.310)
Spencer Arrighetti (.311)
Hayden Wesneski (.315)
Colton Gordon (MiLB)
Ryan Gusto (MiLB)
Lance McCullers Jr. (DNP) *
Cristian Javier (.328 )*
J.P. France (.373)*

+ Not on 40-man roster
* Injured

Several injured starters could potentially enter the rotation mix as the season progresses. Lance McCullers Jr., who hasn’t appeared in a meaningful game since the 2022 World Series, tossed an inning in a Grapefruit League game on March 18.

Another possibility is Luis Garcia. The 28-year-old hasn’t pitched in MLB since May 2023, which is the same month he underwent Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, Garcia experienced elbow soreness on March 19, leading the club to shut down the right-hander.

Cristian Javier is also recovering from TJ surgery and currently projects to return sometime after the All-Star break. J.P. France (shoulder surgery) is expected back at about the same time, too.

Bullpen

Josh Hader returns as closer. Last year, Hader’s 40.5-percent whiff rate was the highest in baseball. But surprisingly, hitters produced much more damaging contact against the five-time All-Star.

Hader allowed 12 home runs - one more than the southpaw surrendered in the previous two seasons combined. Moreover, his hard-hit rate spiked 10 points to 38.8-percent, while his barrel rate rose nearly six points to 10.2-percent.

Setup man Bryan Abreu isn’t as overpowering as Hader. But the right-hander did lead Houston pitchers with 78 appearances and had a 31.7-percent strikeout rate, which was 20th-best among relievers. One area where the 27-year-old struggled was against left-handed hitters, who had a .792 OPS against him. Much higher than the season prior (.611).

Despite the blemishes mentioned, Hader and Abreu begin the season as a formidable late-inning duo. Still, I do wonder how trading former closer and setup man Ryan Pressley in the offseason might pressurize the bullpen in 2025.

Reliever pool (and 2024 xwOBA)

Josh Hader (.257)
Bryan Abreu (.282)
Tayler Scott (.289)
Bryan King (.277)
Luis Contreras (MilB)
Bennett Sousa (MiLB)
Nick Hernandez (MiLB)
Ryan Gusto (MiLB)
Miguel Castro (.380) +
Rafael Montero (.364) +
Steven Okert (.311) +
Logan VanWey (MiLB) +
Kaleb Ort (.269) *
Forrest Whitley (MiLB) *

+ Not on 40-man roster
* Injured

Two other noteworthy relievers return from last year’s bullpen: Tayler Scott and Bryan King. Scott held opponents to a .188 AVG and a 3.5-percent barrel rate that was ninth-best for pitchers facing 200 hitters. That said, the South African did have a 12.8-percent walk rate, which tied for 11th-highest.

As a rookie last season, King performed admirably allowing just one home run in 26.1 innings. The 28-year-old struck out 29.4-percent of 109 batters faced, while surrendering just two barreled balls. Like Scott, his walk rate was worse than average (9.2-percent).

Outlook

Despite the adversity the Astros have faced over the last decade, the team has successfully repelled every challenge to its AL West supremacy. But the organization’s stranglehold on the division is becoming increasingly tenuous. Does that mean another club will knock off Espada’s squad in 2025?

Not necessarily. But there’s a lot more uncertainty with the current roster than there’s been in a long time. It’s conceivable that Paredes adequately replaces the value Bregman provided to the team. But what about right field?

As it stands today, either Chas McCormick, Zach Dezenzo or Cam Smith will be Houston’s starting right fielder instead of Kyle Tucker, arguably one of the 20 best players in baseball. What’s your level of confidence in this plan?

Perhaps McCormick rebounds from the 66 OPS+ he produced last year to what he averaged over his first three seasons (117). But if McCormick isn’t the choice, expecting Dezenzo or Smith to take over feels like a big ask for the inexperienced duo. Particularly for Smith, a 22-year-old with 134 plate appearances as a professional.

Still, even if the offense regresses, the rotation can potentially keep Houston in the hunt for a postseason berth and perhaps bigger things. This assumes Valdez, Brown, Blanco, and Arrighetti remain healthy and repeat last year’s effectiveness.

Whether that will actually be enough to earn the Astros a ninth-consecutive trip to the postseason is unclear. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled it off.

My Oh My…