A Cal Raleigh extension probably doesn't make sense

Cal Raleigh is the heart and soul of the Mariners. But what about four years from now?

Lindsey Wasson / AP Images

When ESPN Baseball Insider Kiley McDaniel reported arbitration-eligible Cal Raleigh was no longer represented by the Boras Corporation, a segment of Mariners fans rejoiced.

With Scott Boras, a strong advocate of players testing free agency, out of the picture, a sense of hope within the fan base has developed. Perhaps Raleigh would entertain signing a contract extension with the organization that selected him in the third round of the 2018 draft.

Still, I have doubts whether extending Raleigh would be the right move for the Mariners.

A decent portion of the fan base will view my concern as outrageous, which is fine. I understand where fans are coming from. Raleigh led the Mariners in home runs, RBI, games, and plate appearances. In fact, the Florida State alum played in 10 more contests than his next closest teammate, Julio Rodríguez. What’s there not to like?

And let’s not forget Raleigh has developed into one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. This year, his work behind the plate earned him Gold and Platinum Glove honors. Furthermore, the 27-year-old is frequently credited for expertly guiding Seattle’s superb pitching staff.

Still, despite all this positivity, I do wonder whether it makes sense to sign Raleigh to an extension. So, what’s fueling my apprehension?

It comes down to a pair of intertwined factors - Raleigh’s age and time remaining under club control. As it stands today, the switch-hitter won’t be free agent-eligible until after the 2027 season when he’ll be 30-years-old. Agreeing to an extension deal with the North Carolina native this winter would have Seattle committing to pay for his age-31-and-beyond seasons. I struggle to believe this is a good idea.

Sure, signing Raleigh now would excite Mariners fans. But will they feel the same way in three years when an extension kicks in? Recent history suggests that he may not have many great - or even good - years remaining at that point.

Consider this nerd nugget. Dating back to 2014, catchers who were 31-or-older made at least 300 plate appearances in a season 92 times. Of those 92 instances, a WAR of three-or-better was accrued on just 14 occasions. The following illustrates the 10 catchers accomplishing the feat. Only three did so multiple times - J.T. Realmuto, Russell Martin, and Yadier Molina.

Please note we’ll be using the Baseball Reference version of wins above replacement (WAR) during our conversation.  

Of the names listed above, Realmuto, Willson Contreras, Salvador Perez, Yasmani Grandal, and Jacob Stallings were active in 2024. Realmuto is the only one with three-plus WAR this year, his age-33 season.

Contreras produced 3.4 WAR in 2023. This year, he appeared in just 84 games due to a pair of IL stints. As a result of these injuries and others suffered in recent seasons, the Cardinals have informed the 32-year-old that they want him to move to first base next year.

Perez, now 34, has totaled 5.8 WAR in the last three seasons. The multiple All-Star’s time behind the plate has significantly diminished during this period with Perez averaging 68 starts at catcher annually.

Since posting 3.7 bWAR in 2021, the 35-year-old Grandal has been in the red with minus-1.4 WAR. Stallings’ lone three-plus WAR season as a big-leaguer was also four years ago. Since then, he’s amassed 0.4 WAR.

The Giants’ new President of Baseball Operations, Buster Posey, accrued 3.4 WAR as a 34-year-old during his final big-league season in 2021. But in 2018-19, he accumulated just 3.6 WAR before sitting out the following season due to COVID.

An optimist might counter my examples of catchers in their thirties falling off a cliff by citing retired Yankee Jorge Posada. After his age-30 season, Posada delivered 29.9 WAR for the remainder of his career. That’s more than any 31-or-older catcher this century. The next closest player was Hall of Famer Iván Rodríguez (18.2).

It’s true that Posada was amazingly durable and productive during his thirties. But for me, he’s an outlier - not the norm. Instead, my risk-averse brain is more focused on the cautionary tale of Jonathan Lucroy than Posada’s unique run.

The 30-year-old Lucroy was considered one of the best hitting catchers in baseball and highly sought-after by contenders in the months leading up to the 2016 MLB trade deadline. The University of Louisiana at Lafayette product initially nixed a deal sending him to Cleveland. Milwaukee would subsequently trade him to Texas instead. Unfortunately, the wheels would come off the wagon for Lucroy within a year.

Lucroy had a solid debut with the Rangers, which made exercising his team option for the 2017 campaign a no-brainer. But his bat went cold and never recovered. So much so that Texas shipped the two-time All-Star to Colorado 12 months after acquiring him. All told, he would play with eight teams during his age-31 through -35 seasons accruing minus-1.1 WAR before his retirement in 2022.

If it appears that I’m trying to scare fans out of wanting Raleigh to sign an extension to stay with the Mariners, that’s not my intent. I like watching Raleigh play and admire his toughness, talent, and leadership. So, I wouldn’t complain if he stuck around the Emerald City beyond his arbitration years. It’d be a great morale-booster for the fan base.

Still, signing Raleigh doesn’t necessarily make sense from a baseball perspective - at least it doesn’t to me.

In three years when an extension would begin, Seattle’s workhorse behind the plate will be 31. There will be a lot less tread remaining on the tires with the likelihood of age-related regression increasingly annually.

Considering what we’ve seen from other thirty-something catchers recently, is that a risk the Mariners can afford to take?

Perhaps not.

 My Oh My…