The final segment of our Mariners preview series aptly covers the relievers expected to preserve victories once manager Dan Wilson replaces his starter.

As we discussed in November, last year’s bullpen was not as dynamic as the 2024 edition. Nevertheless, the crew did an admirable job considering the added workload a banged-up rotation placed on it. In 2025, Seattle relievers covered 90 extra innings and 441 more hitters than the season prior.

The bullpen boasted a variety of valuable arms. Six had a better Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA) than the MLB average. As we noted in our rotation preview, xwOBA is a Statcast product determined by quality of contact allowed. Unlike ERA, good or bad defense doesn’t influence xwOBA.

Better-Than-Average xwOBA in 2025*

Gabe Speier (.247)
Andrés Muñoz (.263)
Matt Brash (.282)
Eduard Bazardo (.285)
Carlos Vargas (.299)
Casey Legumina (.305)

* 150 batter minimum

Notable departures: Caleb Ferguson, Luke Jackson, Collin Snider, Tayler Saucedo, Gregory Santos, Trent Thornton

Looking ahead

Even though several recognizable relievers are no longer Mariners, many familiar faces from last year’s club remain. The first eight names listed below will probably be part of the Opening Day bullpen.

Reliever pool (2025 xwOBA)

Andrés Muñoz (.263)
Gabe Speier (.247)
Matt Brash (.282)
Eduard Bazardo (.285)
Carlos Vargas (.299)
Jose A. Ferrer (.294)
Casey Legumina (.305)
Cooper Criswell (MiLB)
Josh Simpson (.333)
Troy Taylor (MiLB)
Robinson Ortiz (MiLB)
Alex Hoppe (MiLB)
Ryan Loutos (MiLB)
Cole Wilcox (MiLB)
Domingo Gonzalez (MiLB)
Yosver Zulueta (MiLB)
Austin Kitchen (MiLB)+
Peyton Alford ( )+
Guillo Zuñiga ()+
Michael Rucker (DNP)+
Nick Davila (MiLB)+
Tyler Cleveland (MiLB)+
Charlie Beilenson (MiLB)+

+ Not on 40-man roster

Andrés Muñoz continued to be a premium closer. Once again, Muñoz had a double-digit walk rate. But he allowed just two home runs and boasted a .222 SLG that was second-lowest among 444 pitchers facing at least 150 hitters. An outstanding 32.7-percent strikeout rate certainly helped, too.

After a difficult 2024, Gabe Speier had a breakout campaign. Only Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, Brandon Woodruff, and Edwin Díaz produced a better xwOBA than Speier. It should be noted his career-high 33.7-percent strikeout rate led all Mariners and was 13th best among relievers.

Getting Matt Brash back from Tommy John surgery was a big boost. Brash’s strikeout rate was five points lower than his pre-surgery 34.4-percent. Still, Brash held opponents to a 13th-best 30.8-percent hard-hit rate.

The final 2025 appearance by Eduard Bazardo is a bad memory for Mariners fans. But big picture; he was a revelation for the team. Last year, Bazardo increased his sinker usage from 18.8-percent two seasons ago to 40.2-percent, which certainly paid off.

Last season, 124 pitchers threw at least 300 sinkers. Only Chapman (.150) had a lower wOBA with his sinker than Bazardo did (.199). On top of that, Bazardo’s sweeper, which he threw 42.8-percent of the time, limited opposing hitters to a superb .217 wOBA.

Opponents had a .273 AVG and .421 SLG against Carlos Vargas in 2025. These numbers are intriguing since just four pitchers had a lower barrel rate than Vargas (4.9-percent). Moreover, his 35.7-percent hard-hit rate ranked 19th, right behind Cy Young winner Chris Sale.

Not only did Vargas minimize damaging contact, he excelled at keeping the ball on the ground. His 57.1-percent ground ball rate was ninth best among 192 pitchers allowing 200 batted balls. This sounds great, but there’s a catch and it’s not a good one.

Opponents had a .317 AVG on ground balls hit off Vargas, which was 12th highest. For added context: Twenty-six pitchers had a ground ball rate over 50-percent, the right-hander was the only one with an AVG north of .300.

Vargas wasn’t the only Seattle pitcher with a suboptimal AVG on ground balls. It turns out the bullpen’s .286 AVG was the worst in baseball. Six Mariners, including starters Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, were higher than the MLB average.

M’s with High AVG on Ground Balls (50 GB min)

Casey Legumina (.358)
Gabe Speier (.345)
Carlos Vargas (.317)
Logan Gilbert (.283)
George Kirby (.269)
Matt Brash (.266)

MLB AVG on Ground Balls = .249

Some of you may point out Speier and Casey Legumina were ahead of Vargas on the preceding list. True. But he allowed 30 more grounders than Speier and Legumina combined. In the end, Vargas had the inauspicious distinction of leading MLB relievers with 44 ground ball hits.

The lack of ground ball success experienced by Vargas and others is probably attributable to the team’s infield defense being rated one of the least valuable in MLB. This will need to improve in 2026 considering the key relief arm the Mariners acquired in the offseason.

Jose A. Ferrer had the second highest ground ball rate. In December, we went into detail about Washington’s inferior defense and how the southpaw performed much better away from Nationals Park. His former home venue was the second-friendliest venue for hitting singles behind Coors Field.

We discussed Cooper Criswell as a possible replacement for the injured Bryce Miller in our rotation preview. Since he has zero minor-league options remaining, I suspect Criswell makes the team as a starter or long reliever. Legumina and several other relievers are in the same bucket as Criswell.

Minor-League Options of RP’s on 40-man Roster

Andrés Muñoz (n/a)
Matt Brash (2)
Jose A. Ferrer (2)
Eduard Bazardo (0)
Gabe Speier (0)
Carlos Vargas (0)
Casey Legumina (0)
Cooper Criswell (0)
Robinson Ortiz (3)
Troy Taylor (2)
Alex Hoppe (3)
Ryan Loutos (1)
Yosver Zulueta (1)
Cole Wilcox (3)
Domingo Gonzalez (2)
Josh Simpson (1)

Since the team used 33 pitchers last season, it’s reasonable to expect that more than a few of the minor-leaguers listed above will see time with the Mariners in 2026.

Outlook

Obviously, health can quickly derail a reliever’s season at any moment. But injuries aside, the Mariners have a formidable bullpen. The core of Muñoz, Speier, Brash, Ferrer, Bazardo, and Vargas should be capable of holding leads and saving wins all the way to the World Series.

And that’s without the benefit of the in-season additions, minor-league call-ups, and deadline deals the team will inevitably make.

My Oh My…

After being baseball’s best starting rotation in 2024, Seattle’s staff took a step back last year. Not a freefall by any measure. But a noticeable drop off, nonetheless.

In 2024, the Mariners led MLB by a large margin with 92 quality starts - just three shy of the club record set in 1990. But last year, the rotation’s 67 quality starts were seventh-best. Good, but not great compared to the previous campaign.

Across the board, a statistical decline from one year to the next was evident. Respectable in most categories, but not the world-busters of 2024.

Two years ago, the Mariners had an MLB-leading four pitchers with 30-plus starts -Luis M. Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryce Miller. However, just Castillo and Bryan Woo reached 30 starts this past season.

Gilbert, Kirby, and Miller spent time on the IL due to arm-related injuries, reducing their availability and, at times, their effectiveness.

Rotation Injuries (2025)

Bryce Miller (Elbow inflammation) - 92 lost days
George Kirby (Shoulder inflammation) - 59 days
Logan Gilbert (Elbow flexor) - 51 days
Bryan Woo (Pectoral strain) - 10 days*

* Final 10 days of season

It’s worth noting a pectoral injury cost Woo the final week of the regular season. The issue subsequently limited the 26-year-old to just two relief appearances in the ALCS.

Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans primarily covered for Gilbert, Kirby, and Miller during their absences. Luis F. Castillo and Casey Legumina also combined for three starts.

Starts in 2025

Luis M. Castillo (32)
Bryan Woo (30)
Logan Gilbert (25)
George Kirby (23)
Bryce Miller (18)
Emerson Hancock (16)
Logan Evans (15)
Luis F. Castillo (2)
Casey Legumina (1)

The combined season numbers of Hancock and Evans essentially amounted to one below-average starter. Not terrible, but not nearly on the same level as the pitchers they subbed for.

Despite the difficulties we’ve discussed, Seattle’s best starters managed to have respectable seasons. Four Mariners were top-50 in Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA), which is a Statcast product derived from quality of contact allowed. So unlike ERA, defense (good or bad) does not influence xwOBA.

xwOBA of M’s Starters with MLB rank*

Bryan Woo (.274) - 8th in MLB
Logan Gilbert (.275) - 9th
George Kirby (.306) - 34th
Luis Castillo (.312) - 46th
Logan Evans (.350) - n/a
Bryce Miller (.351) - n/a
Emerson Hancock (.360) - n/a

MLB Average for SP’s = .320

* 500-batter minimum

Even though the rotation dealt with injuries most of the season, a segment of Mariners Twitter wanted the team to trade a starter over the winter to bolster the offense. Fortunately, the front office kept the gang together. Let’s discuss where the staff stands at the moment.

Current events

The master plan has already hit a snag. Miller is recovering from an oblique strain, which means he’ll start the season on the IL. The injury probably isn’t a long-term issue, which is good news.

Evans isn’t an option to replace Miller since the 24-year-old is out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The top candidates to take Miller’s spot are Hancock and Cooper Criswell.

Starter pool (2025 xwOBA)

Logan Gilbert (.275)
George Kirby (.306)
Luis Castillo (.312)
Bryan Woo (.275)
Bryce Miller (.351)*
Emerson Hancock (.360)
Cooper Criswell (MiLB)
Blas Castaño (MiLB)
Jhonathan Díaz (MiLB)+
Casey Lawrence (MiLB)+
Ryan Sloan (MiLB )+
Kade Anderson (NCAA)+
Randy Dobnak (MiLB)+
Dane Dunning (MiLB)+
Gabe Mosser (MiLB)+
Michael Morales (MiLB)+
Teddy McGraw (MiLB)+
Logan Evans (.355)*

+ Not on 40-man roster
* Injured

Hancock has experience being a rotation replacement at the beginning of a season. He’s done it the last two years when a starter went to the IL before Opening Day. The following illustrates his numbers from 2025, which were suboptimal.

Criswell made just seven appearances with Boston in 2025 spending most of the season with Class-AAA Worcester. But the righty did have a 3.49 ERA and a .319 xwOBA when he made 18 starts with the Sawx two seasons ago.

Something worth noting: Criswell’s 51.6-percent ground ball rate in 2024 was 10th highest among starters with 70 innings. A small sample that aligns with a career 49.8-percent rate generated during parts of five seasons and 154 big-league innings.

One last note regarding the first wave of replacements. Criswell doesn’t have a minor-league option. Therefore, he’d have to clear waivers before being assigned to Class-AAA Tacoma. Conversely, Hancock does have an option remaining. This may factor into who the Mariners’ select for the Opening Day rotation and bullpen.

As for Gilbert and Kirby, both are in their prime. There’s no reason to expect their effectiveness to diminish this year, as long as they avoid the IL. On the other hand, the stats of Castillo are hinting age-related regression is under way. That said, the 33-year-old was the only Seattle pitcher to make every start in 2025. Availability matters, too.

The other guys

I suspect the second wave of replacements would be names from the starter pool listed above, assuming they’re still with the organization once the season begins. We’ve seen Blas Castaño, Jhonathan Díaz, and Casey Lawrence appear with the Mariners in various roles before. Usually for short durations.

As for options down on the farm, Ryan Sloan and Kade Anderson are the names most often mentioned by the media and fans. And let’s face it, their potential was the reason some fans were willing to deal a starter in the offseason. Still, both youngsters are light on professional experience - particularly Anderson.

In his first season after college, Sloan logged 82 frames with Class-A Modesto and High-A Everett. But it’s important to recognize the right-hander pitched every seven days. Clearly, the organization was closely managing the development and workload of the top pitching prospect.

In the case of Anderson, his next pitch in a regular season game will be the first of the 21-year-old’s professional career. I suspect the Mariners ramp up last year’s third overall pick in the same manner it did with Sloan.

Am I suggesting Sloan and Anderson can’t or won’t help the Mariners this year? No. But expecting these young and inexperienced arms to appear with the club early in the season seems unrealistic. Can I envision either or both pitching with Seattle in September? Assuming they remain healthy and continue developing in the minors, definitely.

Outlook

Last season serves as a reminder that nothing is certain when it comes to starting pitching, which is baseball’s most valuable commodity. But as things sit today, the rotation is in good shape.

Everyone except Miller is ready and he likely returns early in the season. If the rest of the gang stays available and effective, the Mariners’ postseason outlook is very promising.

My Oh My…

Mike Petriello of MLB recently projected the top defensive teams for the upcoming season. Petriello didn’t have the Mariners among the best in baseball. But he did classify Seattle as a “top 5 improver” that would be a “little closer to average in 2026.”

Based on last season’s metrics, placing somewhere near the middle would be a tremendous improvement for the Mariners. Using the Statcast product Fielding Run Value (FRV), the team’s defense ranked 26th. It couldn’t get much worse.

Fielding Run Value (FRV) Captures the overall measurable defensive performance of a player or team. It looks at range and throwing for fielders. For catchers: blocking, framing, and throwing are considered. ZERO is always average.

Five Seattle position groups placed in the bottom-third. Corner infielders and corner outfielders were 29th and 30th respectively.

Mariners Position Group FRV Rankings

Overall (26th)
1B (21st)
2B (27th)
SS (28th)
3B (18th)
LF (22nd)
CF (13th)
RF (26th)
C (13th)
Middle IF (29th)
Corner OF (30th)

Petriello believes the Mariners got better by moving on from poorly-rated fielders Rowdy Tellez, Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, and Dylan Moore. Throw Leody Taveras into that pile. All told, this group combined for minus-19 FRV last year.

Another way the Mariners’ defense can make progress is with “small upgrades,” as Petriello put it. With this in mind, let’s cover my outlook for each position. Along the way, we’ll discuss the new guys and holdovers.

First base - Improved

Josh Naylor accrued 1 FRV after joining the team in July. It’s worth mentioning Naylor was minus-2 FRV with the Diamondbacks before becoming a Mariner. But that number may be an outlier. In three previous seasons with the Guardians, the Canadian averaged 2 FRV annually.

Luke Raley (minus-1 FRV at first base) will play in the outfield. But he could be a contingency behind Naylor.

Bottom line: As long as Naylor is available, first base defense should be in the black this year.

Second base - Improved

Petriello expects Cole Young to overcome a difficult rookie season when his minus-7 FRV ranked 26th of 27 second baseman. Makes sense considering the first rounder played three times as many innings at shortstop than second base before making his big-league debut.

Young’s Minor-League Workload

Second base: 78 games - 652.2 innings
Shortstop: 241 games - 2,086.1 innings

A little extra perspective: Young’s 621 innings at the keystone with Seattle almost exceeded his minor-league career total at the position.

A torn bicep cost last year’s Opening Day second baseman, Ryan Bliss, most of the 2025 campaign. The 26-year-old has made six starts at second base during Spring Training. Dating back to 2024, Bliss has 3 FRV in 276 innings as a second baseman.

Bottom line: Young is just 22, highly athletic, and extremely talented. Plus, esteemed infield coach Perry Hill is overseeing his development. Therefore, his defensive metrics should look much better in 2026 and beyond.

Shortstop - Status quo (suboptimal)

Last season, Toronto’s Bo Bichette (minus-10 FRV) was the lone shortstop worse than J.P. Crawford (minus-9). It should be noted that when the Mets signed Bichette in January, the team introduced him as their everyday third baseman.

Range is the factor driving Crawford’s poor rating among shortstops. We can see this when we review his Outs Above Average (OAA) - a range-based metric that gauges how many outs a defender saved.

Crawford’s minus-13 OAA tied for last with Bichette. The following illustrates his range was below average in three directions last season - coming in on balls, going to his right, and moving to his left.

Crawford recently received treatment for a shoulder issue, which casts doubt on his Opening Day readiness. If the 10-year veteran misses time, I suspect Leo Rivas takes over. When Rivas covered for an injured Crawford in 2024, he registered minus-2 FRV in 180 frames.

Young could also make sense for a short period. But I suspect the Mariners would prefer having the sophomore settle in at second base so he can master the position.

Perhaps Colt Emerson is an option, although I tend to believe management would rather keep the top-10 prospect in the minors a bit longer. That’s just a hunch based on the organization’s previous approach with other promising players.

Bottom line: Over the past four seasons, Crawford has averaged minus-6 FRV annually and he’s now 31. Never say never, but it’s unlikely this position improves with the incumbent remaining in place.

Third base - Improved

Newcomer Brendan Donovan represents one of those small upgrades. During his four-year career, Donovan has primarily played second base and left field. The versatile defender played 809 innings at second base last year, which is three times his career total at third base (272).

Still, Donovan’s career FRV at third base is encouraging - even if it’s based on a small sample.

Donovan’s Career FRV

Second base (1)
Third base (2)
Left field (minus-5)

Bottom line: How long Donovan remains the everyday third baseman probably hinges on the development of Young and Emerson. If Young falters, which I don’t expect, Donovan could slide over to second base. Once the team decides the 20-year-old Emerson is ready for primetime, he could possibly take over the hot corner with Donovan moving around the diamond based on matchups.

Right field - TBD

It’ll be interesting to see how the tandem of Raley and Víctor Robles perform. Since both players dealt with injuries, let’s focus on the four campaigns prior to 2025.

Overall, Raley had minus-3 FRV between 2021 and 2024. But in 643 innings as a right fielder, he was average (ZERO FRV) with the Dodgers, Rays, and Mariners. As for Robles, he accrued 7 FRV as an outfielder during the same period with most of his time being served in center field. In 248 right field innings, he accrued 2 FRV.

Designated hitters Dominic Canzone and Rob Refsnyder have previously played left field. But manager Dan Wilson has exclusively used them as DH or in right field during Cactus League action this year. In over 900 innings as a right fielder dating back to 2023, Canzone rates poorly with minus-7 FRV. During the same timeframe, Refsnyder is minus-1 in 394 frames.

Bottom line: If Raley and Robles remain healthy and viable, they can drive a substantial improvement. After all, simply being average would be dramatically better than last season. How often Canzone and Refsnyder play right field matters, too.

Left field - Status quo (suboptimal)

Petriello assumes Randy Arozarena may play more designated hitter, which would help the team’s fielding numbers. Last year, Arozarena ranked 20th among 25 left fielders. Since 2023, he’s averaged minus-7 FRV each year.

The sample is small, but I will share it anyway. Canzone was average during 134 innings as a left fielder in 2024. That said, an early-season collision with the T-Mobile Park left field wall resulted in a month-long IL stint.

Video: Canzone collides with outfield wall

Bottom line: Maybe time proves this nerd wrong. But it’s tough envisioning the Mariners significantly reducing Arozarena’s outfield time. If I’m correct, the position remains underwater from a metrics standpoint.

Center field - Status quo (still great)

Julio Rodríguez, whose 10 FRV tied for sixth best among center fielders, was Seattle’s lone Gold Glove finalist.

Robles played a lot of center field in Arizona during Rodríguez’s participation in the World Baseball Classic. And even though his defense has slipped in recent years, Robles has been an average center fielder in limited opportunities with Seattle.

Bottom line: If Rodríguez were absent for a short period, Robles could hold down the fort, defensively. But if the 2022 AL Rookie of the Year was out for an extended period, things could get challenging.

Catcher - Status quo (still great)

One season removed from being a Platinum Glove Winner, Cal Raleigh continued to be an above-average defender.

Andrew Knizner was signed in December to serve as Raleigh’s backup. In five seasons and just over 1,800 innings with the Cardinals, his pitch framing ranked 66th of 68 catchers. But the 31-year-old’s framing has improved considerably since. In 2024-25, Knizner was slightly above average in 473 innings with the Rangers and Giants.

The minus-7 FRV of non-roster invite Mitch Garver was solidly subpar during his two years with Seattle. Still, familiarity with the pitching staff and extensive big-league experience could factor into whether he remains a Mariner. But being 35 may work against him, too.

Bottom line: No one is replacing Raleigh’s defense and leadership. But Knizner could potentially lessen the blow of losing the All-Star receiver from a defensive standpoint.

Well?

When Petriello posted his story, I was somewhat skeptical of the Mariners improving enough to be mid-pack in 2026. But after walking through each position, I can see a path leading the defense back to respectability.

Seattle’s metrics would possibly improve even more without Crawford and Arozarena playing in the field every day. But, as we all know, defense is just one of many pieces in the puzzle.

The offensive capabilities of Crawford and Arozarena matter. So as long as they’re healthy and their bats are productive, they likely remain defenders. Then again, a prolonged slump could potentially lead to a reduced role for either popular veteran.

My Oh My…

It’s time to focus on the upcoming Mariners season beginning with an offense that carried them to the ALCS. First, let’s consider their 2025 production numbers.

Seattle ranked ninth in runs scored - its highest position since 2016. The team’s 238 home runs were fifth most in franchise history. Strikeouts dropping 3.5-percent from a club record set in 2024 was another encouraging development.

We should note the Mariners’ offensive surge last September significantly raised their overall numbers. Through August, the team’s .728 OPS was 11th best. But a second-place ranking in the final month spurred a 12-point climb for the season.

Notable departures: Eugenio Suárez (3B), Jorge Polanco (2B/DH), Ben Williamson (3B), Harry Ford (C), Cade Marlowe (OF), Austin Shenton (OF), Samad Taylor (IF)

Looking forward

The projected Opening Day lineup has one new face, Brendan Donovan, rumored to be a Mariners trade target since the introduction of the iPhone. Donovan, an ideal addition, is slated to play third base. He may move around the field as the year unfolds.

Key Position Players (and 2025 OPS+)

1B - Josh Naylor (128)
2B - Cole Young (78)
SS - J.P. Crawford (111)
3B - Brendan Donovan (119)+
LF - Randy Arozarena (119)
CF - Julio Rodríguez (128)
RF - Luke Raley (85) / Víctor Robles (77)
C - Cal Raleigh (169)
DH - Dominic Canzone (142) / Rob Refsnyder (131)+

+ Newcomer

First baseman Josh Naylor returns after re-upping in November. Acquired last July, Naylor was a catalyst behind the late-season push with a top-5 AVG in September.

This isn’t necessarily a concern, but something I want to highlight. As a Mariner, Naylor had a 1.015 OPS at T-Mobile Park, the most extreme pitchers park in MLB. Not only did his home OPS pace the team, it was second highest in any season by a hitter with 100 plate appearances at the venue.

Am I suggesting Naylor craters? No. But it’s sensible to expect his production numbers to normalize - particularly at T-Mobile Park. That’s not a bad thing whatsoever. The Canadian has a 124 OPS+ since 2022, which works in any ballpark.

On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always league-average. As a result, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average.

Second baseman Cole Young had a strong 50-game stretch with a .272 AVG and .366 OBP. Unfortunately, the 22-year-old fell off a cliff in his next 20 contests, which led to reduced playing time and omission from the active postseason rosters.

Shortstop J.P. Crawford was exceptional at reaching base last season. Crawford’s .352 OBP was 33rd best among 145 qualified hitters - essentially equal to Donovan and Naylor (.353). The 31-year-old is currently sidelined with a shoulder issue in Arizona.

In his first full season as Seattle’s left fielder, Randy Arozarena hit 32 doubles and 27 home runs with 31 swiped bags. He also got plunked by a pitch an MLB-leading 27 times making the 31-year-old the only player in MLB history with 25 doubles, 25 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and 25 hit-by-pitches in the same year.

There are several noteworthy trends regarding Arozarena. A 26.9 strikeout rate in 2025 was his highest for any full season, while the two-time All-Star’s walk rate was at its lowest since 2022. Also, Arozarena’s sprint speed has incrementally decreased over the last four years.

Julio Rodríguez is Seattle’s best all-round player and baseball’s top center fielder. Rodríguez didn’t lead the team in any slash category. But his ideal blend of power and speed can help the Mariners win in multiple ways. Last year, the 25-year-old had 31 doubles, 32 home runs, and 30 stolen bases.

The season likely begins with a right field platoon of left-handed hitting Luke Raley and Víctor Robles. Raley has a career .786 OPS against right-handers. Robles’ righty bat has delivered a .341 OBP versus southpaws since 2021.

Still, this blogger remains uncertain of Robles’ offensive value. We remember him being Seattle’s top hitter for the final four months of 2024. But can a batter with an 89 OPS+ in 2,210 plate appearances repeat that success or even be league-average?

While Raley has a 111 OPS+ in 1,224 plate appearances, he’s dealt with availability challenges. Three IL stints in three years, plus injuries slowed his minor league progression. Similarly, Robles has been on the IL five times since 2021.

Rob Refsnyder and Dominic Canzone likely share designated hitter duties and spend time in the outfield, too. The right-handed hitting Refsnyder crushed left-handed offerings last year with a .302 AVG and .560 SLG.

Similarly, Canzone produced a .879 OPS against righty pitching. It’s also possible the left-handed hitter is capable of handling southpaws. In an admittedly small sample of 68 plate appearances, Canzone had a .276 AVG and .368 OBP versus lefty hurlers.

Catcher Cal Raleigh set career bests in games played, stolen bases, doubles, home runs, AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS+. This tremendous increase in production led to his first Silver Slugger and a runner-up finish in AL MVP voting.

Still, Raleigh’s lofty numbers likely regress to some degree. I’m not saying the 29-year-old freefalls. But history suggests he may never reach 60 home runs again. For me, Raleigh repeating his second-half production is a realistic expectation.

A reserve catcher hasn’t been named. Free agent Andrew Knizner has a career 67 OPS+ in 975 big-league plate appearances. Last year’s backup, Mitch Garver, is back on a minor-league deal after having a subpar 86 OPS+, although he was average-ish against lefties with a .719 OPS. Jhonny Pereda has 32 MLB starts with one minor-league option remaining, which matters.

Notable Reserves (and 2025 OPS+)

C - Andrew Knizner (77)
INF - Leo Rivas (113)
INF - Ryan Bliss (INJ)
UTL - Miles Mastrobuoni (83)
C - Jhonny Pereda (MiLB)
OF - Rhylan Thomas (MiLB)
C - Mitch Garver (86)+
IF - Colt Emerson (MiLB)+

+ Not on 40-man roster

The on-base ability and positional versatility of Leo Rivas make him an ideal bench contributor. Rivas has a career .364 OBP during a small sample of 91 MLB games. The switch-hitter made 20 starts at second base in 2025. He also started at shortstop three times and right field once. During Cactus League play, Rivas has mostly played shortstop. Perhaps a contingency in case Crawford’s shoulder issue lingers.

Ryan Bliss missed most of 2025 with a torn bicep. Whether he makes the Opening Day roster likely hinges on his health, the status of players ahead of him on the depth chart, and the readiness of Seattle’s top prospect, Colt Emerson. Barring unforeseen circumstances, Emerson seems destined to begin 2026 in the minors. Still, MLB Pipeline’s number-nine prospect likely debuts with Seattle this year.

Utility-man Miles Mastrobuoni may begin the season on the IL due to a calf injury suffered during the World Baseball Classic. Mastrobuoni has no minor-league options remaining. Therefore, he would have to clear waivers before being sent to Class-AAA Tacoma.

Camp sensation Brennen Davis likely begins the season at AAA. Health setbacks have limited the 15th best prospect in 2022 to fewer than 75 games each year since 2021.

Outlook

The Mariners’ offense can be good. But there are a few areas of risk.

Young is unproven. Just like the acclaimed Emerson, who’s just another untested minor-leaguer until he demonstrates otherwise. I’m hoping both kids break out big time. But if they struggle, Seattle is likely looking for infield help at the deadline.

And then there’s Robles and Raley, who combined to hit .218 and slug .318 last year. Again, I want to see both of them succeed. But their histories mean right field is a position worth monitoring early in the season.

Maybe this is overthinking (or underthinking). How are the 35 home runs of Eugenio Suárez and Jorge Polanco replaced? And let’s not forget Raleigh’s probable drop-off.

A full season of Naylor combined with potential growth by Rodríguez, Canzone, and perhaps even Raley may offset the loss of home runs to some extent. So could Refsnyder coming aboard. Then again, Rodríguez and Naylor are the only full-timers.

Am I screaming "the sky is falling?"

No.

That said, expectations for the Mariners heading into 2026 may be a bit higher than they should be thanks to the euphoria generated by the team reaching the ALCS.

That said, the Mariners’ projected Opening Day roster has eight players who were at least 10-percent better than the average hitter in 2025. This represents the foundation of a long, seemingly slump-proof lineup capable of propelling a club to the World Series.

Wouldn’t that be fun?

My Oh My…

Our AL West primer series has already covered the Angels, Athletics, and Astros. This brings us to Seattle’s fourth division rival - the Rangers.

Offensively, Texas was bottom-five in AVG, OBP, SLG with fewer home runs than the MLB average and the ninth-fewest runs scored.

Conversely, the Rangers were the best at preventing damage by opposing hitters. The 605 runs allowed by Texas were the fewest in baseball and in franchise history with the exception of the shortened 1981 and 2020 seasons.

The defense did its part, too. Infielders ranked ninth in Fielding Run Value (FRV), while outfielders were third best. It’s worth noting two of the team’s better defenders, Marcus Semien and Adolis García, are no longer Rangers.

Something we should consider - the ballpark. Texas pitchers had a top-ranked 2.82 ERA at Globe Life Field and a 4.21 road ERA. The 1.39 difference represented the greatest home field advantage for pitchers edging out the Mariners (1.22).

Offensive home and away splits were also unbalanced. The Rangers had an MLB-worst .660 OPS at home compared to an average-ish .706 OPS away from Arlington.

Notable departures: Bruce Bochy (Manager), Marcus Semien (2B), Adolis García (RF), Jonah Heim (C), Jon Gray (SP), Merrill Kelly (SP), Tyler Mahle (SP), Patrick Corbin (SP), Shawn Armstrong (RP), Danny Coulombe (RP), Phil Maton (RP), Hoby Milner (RP), Dylan Moore (UTL), Donovan Solano (1B/DH), Rowdy Tellez (1B/DH)

Position players

As you can see, several players that Mariners fans have grown accustomed to seeing have departed. Newcomers expected to play regularly are right fielder Brandon Nimmo and catcher Danny Jansen. Other openings will mostly be filled internally.

Key Contributors (and 2025 OPS+)

1B - Jake Burger (99)
2B - Josh Smith (107)
SS - Corey Seager (151)
3B - Josh Jung (100)
LF - Wyatt Langford (127)
CF - Evan Carter (114)
RF - Brandon Nimmo (114)
DH - Joc Pederson (81)
C - Danny Jansen (101) / Kyle Higashioka (102)

First baseman Jake Burger, who was on the IL three times last year, slugged .419 with an average-ish 99 OPS+. The five-year veteran has a career .297 OBP with suboptimal 26.9-percent strikeout and 5.2-percent walk rates.

Josh Smith, who has just eight regular season professional starts at second base, replaces Semien. Smith had a low .380 SLG last year. But the 28-year-old had an excellent .335 OBP and a 107 OPS+.

In 2025, shortstop Corey Seager produced a 151 OPS+ to go with 21 home runs. Availability has been an issue for Seager. The 31-year-old played 102 games last year and has averaged 115 contests annually since 2023. Despite these setbacks, Seager remains an above-average shortstop.

Third baseman Josh Jung is another high-strikeout, low-walk hitter with a career .298 OBP. The eighth overall pick of 2019 is currently sidelined with an abductor strain, although he’s progressing towards returning.

In left field, Wyatt Langford hit 25 doubles and 22 home runs, while swiping 22 bases. Defensively, he was 11th best among outfielders, just behind Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Langford was on the IL three times with oblique issues in 2025.

Evan Carter is in center field, assuming he remains healthy. Quad, back, and wrist issues sidelined Carter three times last year. This comes on the heels of a back injury limiting the 23-year-old to 45 games in 2024. Still, when Carter played last year, he was a productive hitter (116 OPS+) and an excellent glove.

In each of the last four seasons, Nimmo played at least 151 games. During this span, the 32-year-old averaged 28 doubles and 22 home runs with an exceptional 120 OPS+. With the Mets last season, he was an average left field defender.

Jansen and Kyle Higashioka will share catching duties. Each was an average run producer in 2025. Defensively, Statcast rates Jansen as a subpar receiver, particularly as a pitch framer. The 35-year-old Higashioka was a better framer, but he was penalized for his throwing.

Left-handed hitting Joc Pederson returns as the designated hitter. In the three seasons prior to coming to Texas, the 12-year veteran had a 136 OPS+. But his 81 OPS+ last year was the lowest of any season Pederson had 300 plate appearances. He also missed two months with a hand fracture.

Non-roster invite Andrew McCutchen could potentially serve as a right-handed complement to Pederson. The 39-year-old posted a .743 OPS versus southpaws and a .684 OPS against righties with Pittsburgh last season.

Notable Reserves (and 2025 OPS+)

UTL - Ezequiel Durán (75)
UTL - Sam Haggerty (106)
OF - Michael Helman (115)
C - Willie MacIver (MiLB)
IF - Justin Foscue (MiLB)
OF - Alejandro Osuna (MiLB)
OF - Dairon Blanco (MiLB)
IF - Cody Freeman (MiLB)**
OF - Andrew McCutchen (67)+
IF/OF - Tyler Wade (59)+
OF - Mark Canha (52)+
C - José Herrera (53)+
IF - Jonah Bride (24)+

+ Not on 40-man roster
** Injured

Sam Haggerty looks like a spare outfielder for new manager Skip Schumaker. Last year, Haggerty started games at all three outfield spots. He also stole 12 bases in 64 games and had a 106 OPS+.

In 2025, versatile Ezequiel Durán started at every infield position and both corner outfield spots. Durán’s 75 OPS+ isn’t attractive. However, he delivered strong defense and was a speedster with 11 stolen bases.

Perhaps Michael Helman eventually becomes a positive bench contributor. Helmen played 35 games in center field last season and has corner outfield experience. He also started 23 minor-league contests at shortstop in 2025.

Starting Rotation

Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, MacKenzie Gore, and Jack Leiter have the top four rotation spots. deGrom and Eovaldi headline the group.

deGrom’s .286 xwOBA ranked 16th last year. Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) reflects quality of contact allowed and removes defense from the equation. The 36-year-old Eovaldi was even better with an eighth-best .272 xwOBA.

Gore’s .322 xwOBA and 4.17 ERA in 30 starts with Washington were league average. Leiter took a big step forward in his second year making 29 starts with a 3.86 ERA and .326 xwOBA.

Jacob Latz and Kumar Rocker are competing to be the fifth starter.

Latz made eight starts and 28 relief appearances in 2025. The southpaw’s 2.84 ERA looks superb. But a .315 xwOBA signals something closer to average than great. In four years, Latz has held lefty bats to a .578 OPS. Right-handed opponents have a .734 OPS.

A shoulder injury cost Rocker five weeks early last season. The team would eventually send the 26-year-old to Class-AAA Round Rock in July due to ineffectiveness. He finished with a 5.74 ERA and .364 xwOBA.

Starter stable (and 2025 xwOBA)

Nathan Eovaldi (.272)
Jacob deGrom (.286)
MacKenzie Gore (.322)
Jack Leiter (.326)
Jacob Latz (.315)
Kumar Rocker (.364)
Austin Gomber (.372)+
Cal Quantrill (.366)+

+ Not on 40-man roster

Lefties Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bradford will begin 2026 on the 60-day IL. Both missed last season due to elbow surgeries and should return sometime this year.

While discussing injuries, we should discuss the health of several starters. We’ve already covered Rocker. Let’s talk about Eovaldi, Gore, and deGrom.

A rotator cuff strain ended Eovaldi’s season in August after he missed most of June with an elbow issue. Since becoming a Ranger in 2023, the 36-year-old has been on the IL four times.

Shoulder inflammation cost Gore two weeks in August-September. Shortly thereafter, an ankle impingement ended his season. Hopefully, these issues were blips and not foreboding signs.

Then, there’s deGrom. The 37-year-old made 30 starts for the first time since 2019 and was AL Comeback Player of the Year. Then again, his extensive injury history and advancing age must be considered when discussing deGrom and the Rangers’ rotation.

Bullpen

After making nine saves and having a better-than-average .304 xwOBA, Robert Garcia may be a candidate to close games. Perhaps Chris Martin is an option, too.

Still, Martin has dealt with availability challenges recently. The 39-year-old has been on the IL at least twice each year dating back to 2023. Martin’s effectiveness has also suffered. Opponents hit .262 and slugged .390 against him last season.

Recent pickup Jalen Beeks made 61 appearances, including nine multi-inning outings, in 2025. The southpaw had a respectable .306 xwOBA, .206 AVG, and .341 SLG.

Last year was the first time Jakob Junis was a full-time reliever. He made 57 appearances and logged 66.2 innings with Cleveland. On 18 occasions, the 33-year-old notched five outs, including nine two-inning games.

Reliever pool (2024 xwOBA)

Robert Garcia (.304)
Chris Martin (.303)
Cole Winn (.318)
Jakob Junis (.312)
Jalen Beeks (.306)
Tyler Alexander (.332)
Emiliano Teodo (MiLB)
Marc Church (MiLB)
Luis Curvelo (MiLB)
Michel Otañez (MiLB)
Carter Baumler (MiLB)++
Josh Sborz (.314)+
Ryan Brasier (.340)+
Patrick Murphy (MiLB/Japan)+
Alexis Díaz (.384) - DFA

+ Not on the 40-man roster
++ Rule 5 pick

Opponents hit .277 against Tyler Alexander last season when he pitched for the White Sox and Brewers. That said, the versatile left-hander made five starts during 52 appearances and logged two-plus innings as a reliever 19 times.

Rule 5 selection Carter Baumler must remain with Texas all season or be offered back to his former club. At three minor-league stops last year, Baumler posted 29.1-percent strikeout and 11.4-percent walk rates.

Outlook

If the Rangers are graced with good health, always a big if, they can contend for the AL West title. Otherwise, Texas will be an also-ran for a third consecutive year.

My Oh My…

We’ve already discussed the Angels and the Athletics. Now, let’s consider an Astros team that dominated the AL for a decade before stumbling in 2025.

Unusually low run production undermined Houston. Two seasons ago, the lineup scored the 11th most runs before sinking to 21st last year. Its strikeout rate also exceeded 20-percent for the first time since 2016 when the team last missed the playoffs.

Fortunately, Houston had a ninth-place ranking in runs allowed. That said, injuries exacted a heavy toll on the rotation. Just two Astros made more than 15 starts.

Despite the health-related adversity, the rotation’s 70 quality starts were third most in MLB. Not only that, its .306 xwOBA was fourth best. Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) relies on quality of contact and removes defense from the equation.

The bullpen generated the best strikeout rate and ranked second in xwOBA, AVG, and WHIP. It’s worth noting the group’s 33.5-percent ground ball rate was the lowest in baseball, while its 3.3-percent home run rate was fifth highest.

Defensively, the Astros’ Fielding Run Value (FRV) was eighth best in baseball. The infield ranked third, while the outfield was ninth. However, catchers were 22nd-ranked.

Notable departures: Framber Valdez (SP), Chas McCormick (OF), Mauricio Dubón (UTL), Brendan Rodgers (IF), Victor Caratini (C), Craig Kimbrel (RP), Kaleb Ort (RP)

Position players

Looking towards the upcoming year, first baseman Christian Walker and second baseman Jose Altuve enter their age-35 and age-36 seasons, respectively. Both showed signs of potential regression in 2025.

Walker averaged a 122 OPS+ in three previous seasons with Arizona, which suggests he was 22-percent more productive than the average hitter. Last year, the 11-year veteran had a 97 OPS+.

Something else to consider. Daikin Park seemingly suppressed Walker’s power. He slugged .342 with eight home runs in Houston and had a .482 SLG and 19 dingers on the road. It’ll be interesting to see whether this extreme split continues.

Even Walker’s defense seemed to slide. In 2024, he won a third consecutive Gold Glove when his 10 FRV was highest among NL first basemen. Last year’s 2 FRV was above average, but not elite as it had been with the Diamondbacks.

Altuve remained an above-average run producer. However, output has fallen since 2022 when his 163 OPS+ was fourth best in baseball. Last year, the nine-time All-Star had a relatively modest 112 OPS+.

Key Contributors (and 2025 OPS+)

1B - Christian Walker (97)
2B - Jose Altuve (112)
SS - Jeremy Peña (132)
3B - Carlos Correa (117)
IF - Isaac Paredes (123)
LF - Taylor Trammell (75)+
CF - Jake Meyers (103)
RF - Cam Smith (87)
C - Yainer Diaz (92)
DH - Yordan Alvarez (121)

+ Not on 40-man roster

At 31, third baseman Carlos Correa isn’t as “elderly” as Walker and Altuve. But his OPS+ dropped 49 points to 103 last year and he has an extensive injury history. Since 2022, Correa has averaged 122 games annually.

Shortstop Jeremy Peña is Houston’s best position player and an above-average defender. Peña suffered a fractured finger in the World Baseball Classic. His Opening Day status is unknown.

Then, there’s Isaac Paredes - the infielder without a home. The 27-year-old was acquired to play third base last winter and was enjoying a strong season until a hamstring injury cost him most of the second half. His absence spurred Houston to acquire Correa, leaving Paredes without a permanent spot.

The outfield situation is unclear since manager Joe Espada hasn’t named starters.

Opening Day center fielder Jake Meyers had a .292 AVG and .354 OBP in 102 games until a calf injury sidelined him for two months. Despite missing a third of the season, his FRV was eighth best among center fielders.

Cam Smith was a Gold Glove finalist as a rookie right fielder. However, Smith will need to improve on a 27.8-percent strikeout rate that led to an 87 OPS+.

Other outfield candidates include offseason pickup Joey Loperfido, youngsters Zach Cole, Zach Dezenzo, Brice Matthews and non-roster invite Taylor Trammell. There’s also talk of Yordan Alvarez playing in left field. But based on his offensive value and injury history, designated hitter makes more sense.

Since 2021, just three players with 2,000 plate appearances have a better OPS+ than Alvarez - Aaron Judge (196), Shohei Ohtani (171), and Juan Soto (163). Unfortunately, Alvarez and his 161 OPS+ averaged just 118 games annually during this span.

Catcher Yainer Diaz experienced a sharp decline in offensive production last year. Compounding matters, Statcast rated Diaz as a below average framer.

Notable Reserves (and 2025 OPS+)

C - César Salazar (MiLB)
IF - Nick Allen (53)
OF- Zach Cole (MiLB)
IF/OF - Zach Dezenzo (MiLB)
IF/OF - Brice Matthews (MiLB)
IF/OF - Shay Whitcomb (MiLB)
OF - Taylor Trammell (75)+
C- Christian Vázquez (52)+
IF/OF - Cavan Biggio (55)+
C/1B - Carlos Pérez (MiLB)+
C/1B - Collin Price (MiLB)+
C - John Garcia (MiLB)+
C/1B - Garret Guillemette (MiLB)+
IF/OF - Jax Biggers (MiLB)+
IF/OF - Riley Unroe (MiLB)+
OF - Joseph Sullivan (MiLB)+

+ Not on 40-man roster

César Salazar is the current backup catcher, although Salazar has just 36 games of MLB experience. Perhaps non-roster invite Christian Vázquez ends up getting the job. The 35-year-old was an Astro in 2022 and has always been a plus defender.

Veteran infielder Nick Allen has an unappealing career 55 OPS+. But his 12 FRV at shortstop last year was elite. Then again, a youngster with more offensive upside may inevitably be a better choice than Allen.

Starting Rotation

Last season, Hunter Brown was top-10 in multiple categories including xwOBA, ERA, AVG, K%, and WHIP. After the Cy Young Award finalist, the rotation gets squishy.

Cristian Javier made eight starts after returning from Tommy John surgery in August. The club is counting on Javier to regain his pre-injury form in 2026.

Spencer Arrighetti suffered an early-season broken thumb. The 26-year-old would return in August only to be shut down after five starts due to elbow inflammation. In 2024, Arrighetti made 28 starts with a 4.53 ERA and .314 xwOBA.

This offseason, the Astros signed Tatsuya Imai, Ryan Weiss, and Nate Pearson. With the Saitama Seibu Lions of the JPPL, Imai averaged 25 starts and 168 innings with a 2.13 ERA over the last two seasons.

Weiss has yet to make his MLB debut. In 2025, he made 30 starts and logged 178.2 innings with the Hanwha Eagles of the KBO.

Houston is converting Pearson into a starter; the role he debuted in with Toronto in 2020. The 29-year-old is ramping up following an offseason elbow procedure. His availability for the season opener is in doubt.

The team also traded for Mike Burrows, who had an average-ish 4.15 ERA and .322 xwOBA in 19 starts with Pittsburgh. That said, opponents had a suboptimal 10.8-percent barrel rate against Burrows.

Starter stable (and 2025 xwOBA)

Hunter Brown (.277)
Cristian Javier (.286)
Spencer Arrighetti (INJ)
Tatsuya Imai (JPPL)
Mike Burrows (.322)
Lance McCullers Jr. (INJ)
Ryan Weiss (KBO)
Nate Pearson (MiLB)
Jason Alexander (.339)
AJ Blubaugh (MiLB)
J.P. France (INJ)+
Ronel Blanco (INJ)
Hayden Wesneski (INJ)

+ Not on 40-man roster

The Astros likely use six starters early in the year. Imai was accustomed to pitching every sixth game in Japan. Plus, the team has a condensed schedule with 26 contests in the first 28 days of the season. This strategy may also benefit oft-injured Lance McCullers Jr., who was on the IL four times in 2025.

Bullpen

Closer Josh Hader owned the lowest xwOBA among relievers in 2025. He starts the year on the IL with a bicep issue after a shoulder strain ended his season last August.

Another banged up reliever, former Mariners farmhand Enyel De Los Santos, is recovering from a right knee strain and expected to face hitters soon.

Bryan Abreu will close games during Hader’s absence. Excellent holdovers Steven Okert, Bennett Sousa, and Bryan King will be responsible for getting the ball to Abreu.

Kai-Wei Teng started seven games for San Francisco in 2025. Perhaps the 27-year-old serves as a multi-inning relief option and rotational depth.

Reliever pool (and 2025 xwOBA)

Josh Hader (.221)
Bryan Abreu (.289)
Bryan King (.274)
Bennett Sousa (.266)
Steven Okert (.253)
Enyel De Los Santos (.316)
Kai-Wei Teng (.311)
Jayden Murray (MiLB)
Roddery Muñoz (MiLB) ++
Peter Lambert (JPCL)+
Logan VanWey (MiLB)+
Tom Cosgrove (MiLB)+
Christian Roa (MiLB)+
Amos Willingham (MiLB)+

+ Not on 40-man roster
++ Rule 5 draft pick

Rule 5 pick Roddery Muñoz could make the Opening Day roster. If this happens, Muñoz must remain with Houston all season or he must be offered back to the Reds.

Beginning the season without Hader and possibly De Los Santos would unduly pressurize the bullpen. Perhaps an unheralded arm, like Muñoz, fills a greater role. We’ve seen this happen several times in Seattle over the last half decade.

Outlook

For an 87-win team returning eight hitters from last year’s Opening Day lineup, there is a surprising amount of uncertainty.

The thirty-something infielders regressed. Yet, the team reportedly wanted to trade Paredes this winter. This nerd believes Houston would be better served by keeping him. Paredes is younger and more productive than Walker, Altuve, and Correa.

The Astros also lack an established outfielder. Meyers is a superb defender with a 90 OPS+ in over 1,500 plate appearances. He too is the subject of trade rumors. Smith is extremely talented and could become a star. But like everyone else, he’s unproven.

And then there’s the rotation. Replacing the quality and quantity Framber Valdez provided won’t be easy. Perhaps someone from the group of Imai, Arrighetti, McCullers, Burrow, Weiss, and Pearson will rise to fill the void. But color me a skeptic.

Houston led the AL West as late as September 17 last year and shouldn’t be dismissed from consideration as a postseason contender. Having said that, it’s been a very long time since I’ve been this low on the Astros in March.

My Oh My…

We’ve already covered the Angels in our AL West primer series. Let’s turn our attention to the Athletics.

During their first season in Sacramento, the A’s had a 41-57 record at the All-Star break. The club ultimately improved to finish fourth in the AL West with 76 wins.

Offense was a strength. The lineup produced the same batting average as the reigning World Series champion Dodgers. Moreover, just three clubs – the Yankees (.455), Dodgers (.441), and Phillies (.433) had a higher slugging percentage than the A’s.

Pitching was a completely different story. The Athletics surrendered a lot of home runs. The staff also provided too many free passes via the walk and wasn’t proficient at generating strikeouts.

It’s worth noting the bullpen significantly improved later in the year. The .295 xwOBA of A’s relievers in the second half was fifth best in baseball. A rapid departure from a 28th-ranked .329 xwOBA prior to the All-Star Game.

Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing. MLB league-average xwOBA last year = .316

Something else to consider. The Athletics allowed the third most runs by a home team. But they permitted 73 fewer runs on the road - nearly a run less per-game. That said, there was a late-season improvement.

Sacramento’s Home ERA

First half - 5.40
Second half - 4.30

One more thing. The A’s offense was productive regardless of location. It scored 368 runs at Sutter Health Park and 365 on the road.

Notable departures: José Leclerc (RP), Sean Newcomb (RP), JJ Bleday (CF), Ken Waldichuk (SP), Max Schuemann (IF), Mitch Spence (SP), Grant Holman (RP), Jason Alexander (SP)

Position players

Jeff McNeil joins a young infield to play second base, which he did 79 times with the Mets last year. The 33-year-old also started 35 contests in the outfield, including 28 in center field. Injuries kept him from reaching 130 games in 2024 and 2025. McNeil also underwent a thoracic outlet procedure in the offseason.

AL Rookie of the Year winner Nick Kurtz and runner-up Jacob Wilson, are at first base and shortstop, respectively. Max Muncy and Darell Hernaiz appear to be the top candidates for third base. All four players are 24-or-younger.

Kurtz clobbered 36 home runs in 117 games. Just two hitters with 450 plate appearances, bested his 173 OPS+. They were Aaron Judge (215) and Shohei Ohtani (179). Seattle’s Cal Raleigh (169) finished right behind the rookie.

On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always league-average. As a result, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average.

Wilson had a 7.5-percent strikeout rate that was second best in MLB behind Luis Arráez (3.1-percent). However, the 23-year-old didn’t make a lot of quality contact. His hard-hit and barrel rates were both bottom-10.

A wrist injury cost Muncy two months in 2025. When available, he generated a below-average 75 OPS+. Hernaiz was an injury call-up at shortstop when Wilson was out for a month. The 24-year-old subsequently started 28 contests at second base and third base. As with Muncy, Hernaiz’s 67 OPS+ wasn’t good.

Key Position Players (and 2025 OPS+)

1B - Nick Kurtz (173)
2B - Jeff McNeil (111)
SS - Jacob Wilson (121)
3B - Max Muncy (75) / Darell Hernaiz (67)
LF - Tyler Soderstrom (126)
CF - Denzel Clarke (78)
RF - Lawrence Butler (96)
C - Shea Langeliers (134)
DH/LF - Brent Rooker (123)

Tyler Soderstrom and Lawrence Butler return in the corner outfield spots. Soderstrom had a tremendous year with 34 doubles, 25 home runs, and a 126 OPS+.

Unfortunately, Butler regressed from an outstanding 131 OPS+ in 2024 to a below-average 96 last year. Moreover, his strikeout rate increased to 28.4-percent. It should be noted that after the 2025 campaign the 25-year-old had a procedure on his right patella tendon and received a platelet-rich plasma injection in the other knee.

Projected center fielder Denzel Clarke is an outstanding defender (11 FRV in just 384 innings) with top-20 sprint speed. But a 78 OPS+ and 38.4-percent strikeout rate in 159 plate appearances does provide reason to pause. Also, an abductor strain limited the 25-year-old to three games after the All-Star break.

Fielding Run Value (FRV) is Statcast's metric for capturing a player’s overall measurable defensive performance. ZERO is always average.

Brent Rooker likely plays designated hitter most days, although he did start 27 times in a corner outfield spot last year. Still, his minus-3 FRV in the small sample of 216 innings hints that DH may be the best spot for the 31-year-old. Offensively, Rooker and Pete Alonso were the only hitters to hit 30 home runs and 40 doubles in 2025.

Behind the plate, Shea Langeliers possesses a potent bat. His 134 OPS+ tied with former Mariner Jorge Polanco for 20th best last year. Furthermore, he was one of two catchers with at least 30 doubles and 30 home runs. The other was Salvador Perez.

Notable Reserves (and 2025 OPS+)

C- Austin Wynns (132)
IF - Andy Ibáñez (81)
OF - Carlos Cortes (MiLB)
OF - Colby Thomas (86)
2B - Zack Gelof (39)
IF - CJ Alexander (MiLB)
3B - Brett Harris (MiLB)
OF - Junior Perez (MiLB)
C/1B - Shane McGuire (MiLB)+
C- Bryan Lavastida ((MiLB)+
C - Chad Wallach (MiLB )+
C - Brian Serven (MiLB)+
1B/RF - Joey Meneses (MiLB)+
IF - Euribiel Angeles (MiLB)+
IF - Michael Stefanic (MiLB)+
IF - Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (MiLB)+
IF - Leo De Vries (MiLB)+
OF - Henry Bolte (MiLB)+
OF - Clark Elliott (MiLB)+
OF - Cade Marlowe (MiLB)+
OF - Ryan Lasko (MiLB)+

+ Not on 40-man roster

Backup catcher Austin Wynns produced a superb 132 OPS+ with the Reds and A’s last season. But Wynns had an 85 OPS+ and missed the final two months of the season with an injury after joining Sacramento in June.

With Detroit and Class-AAA Toledo last season, Andy Ibáñez started games at every infield position and right field. Ibáñez had a low 81 OPS+. But his work in the field resulted in 2 FRV.

Zack Gelof is recovering from shoulder surgery and not expected to be ready for Opening Day. It’ll be interesting to see how manager Mark Kotsay uses the 26-year-old with McNeil taking over at second base. As a rookie in 2023, Gelof hit 20 doubles and 14 home runs with a 134 wRC+ in 69 games. Since then, he has a 75 OPS+ in 168 contests.

Starting Rotation

Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs return after pitching 160-plus innings. Severino, who missed three weeks in August with an oblique strain, was significantly better away from home. At Sutter Health Park, he had a 6.01 ERA compared to a 3.02 ERA on the road.

Springs also experienced a noticeable split. At home, opponents produced a .769 OPS against him and a .666 OPS away from the “City of Trees.”

Newcomer Aaron Civale made 23 appearances, including 18 starts, for the Brewers, White Sox, and Cubs last year. It should be mentioned the Cubs used the 30-year-old solely as a reliever in the final month of the season. Perhaps this small sample is a nothing-burger. But Civale was more effective out of the bullpen (.286 xwOBA, 28% strikeout rate) than as a starter (.318 xwOBA, 19.2% strikeout rate).

Based on their experience with the team last season, Jacob Lopez and Luis Morales seem to make sense for the final two rotation spots. Lopez appeared in 22 games (17 starts) posting a 4.08 ERA and a .297 xwOBA. Morales had a superb 3.09 ERA in nine starts. But his average-ish .322 xwOBA makes me skeptical of the ERA.

Starter Stable (and 2025 xwOBA)

Luis Severino (.331)
Jeffrey Springs (.321)
Aaron Civale (.314)
Jacob Lopez (.297)
Luis Morales (.322)
Jack Perkins (.297)
Gunnar Hoglund (.408)
Joey Estes (.364)
J.T. Ginn (.310)
Mason Barnett (MiLB)
Braden Nett (MiLB)
Henry Baez (MiLB)
Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang (MiLB)
Gage Jump (MiLB)+
Kade Morris (MiLB)+
Yunior Tur (MiLB)+
Domingo Robles (MiLB)+
Wei-En Lin (MiLB)+
Kenya Huggins (MiLB)+
Jamie Arnold (NCAA)+

+ Not on 40-man roster

Other potential candidates include pitchers who started for Sacramento last year: J.T. Ginn, Gunnar Hoglund, Mason Barnett and Jack Perkins. Perhaps top-100 prospect Gage Jump can help the team in some capacity this year.

Bullpen

Kotsay isn’t going to name a closer. He’ll likely lean on some combination of newcomers Mark Leiter Jr. and Scott Barlow, plus Hogan Harris, Michael Kelly, and Elvis Alvarado to cover late-inning duties.

Bullpen pool (and 2025 xwOBA)

Hogan Harris (.289)
Justin Sterner (.278)
Mark Leiter Jr. (.301)
Michael Kelly (.301)
Scott Barlow (.323)
Elvis Alvarado (.305)
Brady Basso (.307)
Tyler Ferguson (.296)
Eduarniel Núñez (MiLB)
CD Pelham (MiLB)
Luis Medina (INJ)
Nick Anderson (MiLB)+
A.J. Causey (MiLB)+
Gustavo Rodriguez (MiLB)+
Joel Kuhnel (MiLB)+
Geoff Hartlieb (MiLB)+
Wander Suero (MiLB)+
Brooks Kriske (MiLB)+
Ben Bowden (MiLB)+
Nick Hernandez (MiLB)+
Matt Krook (MiLB)+
JJ Goss (MiLB)+

+ Not on 40-man roster

Outlook

The Athletics should be better than the Angels in the AL West. But to contend, they must accomplish two things.

The lineup will have to build upon last year’s success. This requires good health, growth from its young stable of hitters, and the bats of Rooker and McNeil remaining productive. If Butler and Gelof return to their rookie form, even better.

This may be a big ask for starting pitchers whose home field had the highest SLG on fly balls last year. But more is needed. Civale was the lone addition to a rotation that ranked 27th in ERA and 25th in xwOBA. Perhaps the young guys emerge. But they are unproven, unlike their position player counterparts.

I suspect the A’s will be fun to watch in 2026. But eventually, they will fall short of a postseason berth. That said, Sacramento likely makes its division rivals uncomfortable throughout the season.

Including the Mariners.

My Oh My…

The first segment of our AL West primer series focuses on a club that experienced its tenth consecutive losing campaign in 2025.

Before looking at the Angels’ current situation, let’s review last season’s numbers. Doing so reveals why the team finished in the AL West division cellar.

The lineup clobbered a ton of home runs. But it ranked last in doubles and batting average, while tallying 96 more strikeouts than 29th-ranked Colorado.

On the pitching side, Los Angeles was even worse. The staff was bottom-three in multiple categories with the bullpen blowing an MLB-high 34 saves.

To be fair, Angels pitchers didn’t receive adequate support from a defense that allowed 47 runners to reach base via error. Only the White Sox (48) permitted more. From an advanced metric standpoint, the picture doesn’t improve.

The team’s overall defense ranked 30th with minus-54 FRV. Third base and both corner outfield spots were last, while catcher and shortstop were bottom-five.

Fielding Run Value (FRV) is Statcast's metric for capturing a player’s overall measurable defensive performance. ZERO is always average.

Several recognizable names left in the offseason. But many familiar faces remained on hand to greet new manager Kurt Suzuki.

Notable departures: Tyler Anderson (SP), Kenley Jansen (RP), Kyle Hendricks (SP), Luis Rengifo (INF), Luis García (RP), Taylor Ward (OF), Brock Burke (RP)

Position players

First baseman Nolan Schanuel doesn’t possess significant home run power. But his .353 OBP last year tied for 30th best with Mariners Josh Naylor and Brendan Donovan.

At second base, Christian Moore, Vaughn Grissom, Oswald Peraza Nick Madrigal, Denzer Guzman, and Adam Frazier are in the mix for playing time.

Moore debuted last season producing a .198 AVG, .284 OBP, .370 SLG with a poor 81 OPS+ and 33.7-percent strikeout rate. Defensively, the eighth overall pick in 2024 was minus-1 FRV in 142 innings.

On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always league-average. As a result, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average.

Grissom played for Class-AAA Worcester last year. With Boston and Atlanta in 2022-24, he delivered a .255 AVG, .309 OBP, .346 SLG with an 82 OPS+ in 350 plate appearances. The 25-year-old has shortstop and second base experience. But a minus-11 FRV in 781 innings isn’t encouraging.

Peraza was once a top Yankees prospect. Yet, in 525 plate appearances over the last four seasons, he’s hit .189 with a 51 OPS+ and a 27.1-percent strikeout rate. The 25-year-old played every infield position last year with a one FRV in 650 innings. Moreover, his sprint speed tied for 18th best with Seattle’s Julio Rodríguez.

Unfortunately, Madrigal has been on the IL nine times since debuting with the White Sox six years ago. A shoulder injury cost him all of last season. The fourth overall pick of 2018 has a .274 AVG, .323 OBP, .344 SLG and 86 OPS+ in 940 plate appearances.

The 22-year-old Guzmán hit 30 doubles and 17 home runs with a .247 AVG, .343 OBP, and .426 SLG at AA and AAA last year. But a 25.4-percent strikeout rate in 539 minor league plate appearances is concerning.

With the Pirates and Royals last year, Frazier hit 20 doubles with a .267 AVG, .319 OBP, and 91 OPS+. The 34-year-old mostly played second base. He also made starts at third base and both corner outfield spots.

Shortstop Zach Neto provides a nice blend of speed and power. Last year, he clobbered 29 doubles and 26 home runs and swiped 26 bags. That said, his minus-4 FRV was 21st among 28 shortstops with 750 innings.

Third baseman Yoán Moncada can be productive, when available. Since the beginning of the 2022 campaign, he’s been on the IL six times playing just 45-percent of his teams’ games.

Key Position Players (and 2025 OPS+)

1B - Nolan Schanuel (107)
2B - Christian Moore (81)
SS - Zach Neto (117)
3B - Yoán Moncada (116)
LF - Jorge Soler (87)
CF - Jo Adell (111)
RF - Josh Lowe (81)
DH - Mike Trout (121)
C - Logan O’Hoppe (72)

The outfield includes future Hall of Famer Mike Trout, Jo Adell, newcomer Josh Lowe, and Jorge Soler. Trout and Soler likely cover designated hitter, too.

The regular center fielder hasn’t been named by Suzuki. That said, Trout has voiced a preference to return to his former position. But his advancing age and recent injury history may send management in another direction.

Trout played in 130 contests last year - his highest total since 2019. The 34-year-old primarily served as designated hitter. He also started 22 times in right field accruing minus-2 FRV. Trout’s 121 OPS+ was superb, although it pales in comparison to his career mark (169). Moreover, his 32-percent strikeout rate was nine points higher than his lifetime average.

Another candidate might be Adell, who had a breakout season at the plate with 37 home runs and a 111 OPS+. Still, his minus-8 FRV ranked last among center fielders. By September, he was playing right field.

Bryce Teodosio took over center field late in the year. Teodosio’s nine FRV in 406 innings was top-shelf. So was a sprint speed that was tenth best in MLB. Then again, a 50 OPS+ is hard to overlook.

Lowe played right field with the Rays last season. Defensively, his minus-8 FRV was 30th among 40 corner outfielders. He also had a suboptimal 81 OPS+. Lowe is currently dealing with oblique soreness. The five-year veteran expects to be ready for the season opener.

As for Soler, lower back inflammation caused him to miss the last two weeks of June and then the final two months of the 2025 campaign. When the 34-year-old was available, he slugged .387 with an 87 OPS+. Soler started 39 games in right field, which resulted in minus-4 FRV.

The offensive and defensive numbers of catcher Logan O’Hoppe were not good. O’Hoppe’s .629 OPS was ranked 31st among receivers. His minus-12 FRV was bottom-three. For context, MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh had a top-ranked .948 OPS and eighth-best seven FRV.

Notable reserves (and 2025 OPS+)

IF - Vaughn Grissom (MiLB)
C - Travis d’Arnaud (65)
IF - Oswald Peraza (33)
OF - Bryce Teodosio (53)
IF - Denzer Guzmán (MiLB)
IF/OF - Chris Taylor (55)+
IF - Nick Madrigal (DNP)+
OF - Jose Siri (INJ)+
IF/OF - Donovan Walton (MiLB)+
IF/OF - Yolmer Sánchez (MiLB)+
IF - Jeimer Candelario (MiLB) +
1B/OF - Trey Mancini (MiLB) +
1B/OF - Niko Kavadas (MiLB) +
IF - Kyren Paris (MiLB)+
CF- Nelson Rada (MiLB)+
OF - Raudi Rodriguez (MiLB)+
OF - Wade Meckler (MiLB)+
OF - Gustavo Campero (MiLB)+
C - Sebastián Rivero (MiLB)+

+ Not on 40-man roster

Backup catcher Travis d’Arnaud wasn’t productive at the plate (65 OPS+) and a below-average defender (minus-5 FRV). He’s also entering his age-37 season.

Chris Taylor returns on a minor-league deal. The 35-year-old played all three outfield spots and second base in 2025, which might come in handy. Still, he posted a 55 OPS+.

Jose Siri is an intriguing outfield candidate. The non-roster invite missed most of 2025 with a leg injury and has been a below average run producer during his career. Then again, Siri has always been an elite defender with excellent speed.

Starting Rotation

Yusei Kikuchi and José Soriano spearheaded the rotation. Each made at least 31 starts and surpassed 160 innings. Kikuchi’s .324 xwOBA was 65th best among 121 starters facing 500 hitters, while the .312 xwOBA of Soriano ranked 42nd.

Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing. MLB league-average xwOBA last year = .316

After the top two guys, there’s a lot of uncertainty. For example, two offseason acquisitions didn’t pitch in 2025: Grayson Rodriguez and Alek Manoah.

A lat strain and shoulder inflammation limited Rodriguez to 20 starts in 2024. Elbow surgery erased 2025. Similarly, a shoulder injury and Tommy John surgery cost Manoah most of 2024 and all of last year.

Reid Detmers returns to starting after being a reliever in 2025. Detmers did miss the last two weeks of September with an elbow issue. The team reports he is now healthy.

Jack Kochanowicz could be an option after making 23 starts last year. Then again, Kochanowicz’s 6.81 ERA ranked last among 127 pitchers with 100 innings.

Starter stable (and 2025 xwOBA)

Yusei Kikuchi (.327)
José Soriano (.312)
Reid Detmers (.296)
Grayson Rodriguez (Injured)
Alek Manoah (Injured)
Jack Kochanowicz (.368)
Sam Aldegheri (MiLB)
Walbert Ureña (MiLB)
Caden Dana (MiLB)
Mitch Farris (MiLB)
Victor Mederos (MiLB)
Ryan Johnson (MiLB)
George Klassen (MiLB)+
Joel Hurtado (MiLB)+
Huascar Ynoa (IND)+
Shaun Alexander (MiLB)+

+ Not on 40-man roster

Several inexperienced arms may receive opportunities to contribute with the big-league club in 2026. Sam Aldegheri, Walbert Ureña, and Caden Dana are examples.

Bullpen

The relief corps has a chance to provide value. But just like the rotation, there’s a decent amount of risk associated with the arms assembled by management.

Recognizable names Kirby Yates, Drew Pomeranz, Jordan Romano, and Brent Suter were signed in the offseason. But only Pomeranz had a better-than-average xwOBA last year. Furthermore, Pomeranz, Romano, Suter, and non-roster invite Hunter Strickland are 36-or-older.

Reliever pool (and 2025 xwOBA)

Robert Stephenson (INJ)
Drew Pomeranz (.291)
Jordan Romano (.314)
Kirby Yates (.318)
Ryan Zeferjahn (.321)
Brent Suter (.314)
José Fermin (.314)
Chase Silseth (.312)
Sam Bachman (.318)
Ben Joyce (Injured)
Jayvien Sandridge (MiLB)
Nick Sandlin (.324)+
Miguel Castro (.347)+
Tayler Saucedo (.365)+
Kaleb Ort (.288)+
Hunter Strickland (.309)+
Angel Perdomo (MiLB)+
Samy Natera (MiLB)+

+ Not on 40-man roster

Robert Stephenson made just 12 starts last year after missing 2024. He’s healthy now, but has a long injury history. Therefore, his status merits monitoring.

Another oft-injured reliever, hard-throwing Ben Joyce underwent season-ending labrum surgery last May and is throwing off a mound. Whether he’ll be ready for Opening Day is unclear.

Outlook

Perhaps time proves this nerd wrong, which is fine. But the Angels appear destined to finish in last place.

That said, I really want Mike Trout to be Mike Trout again.

My Oh My…

Today, the Mariners added a much-needed established bat to bolster their current lineup, who can also serve as a bridge to the organization’s deep stable of infield prospects. That player is infielder Brendan Donovan, acquired from the Cardinals in a three-way deal involving the Rays.

The Cost

To land Donovan, Seattle sent third baseman Ben Williamson to Tampa Bay and starter Jurrangelo Cijntje and outfielder Tai Peete to St. Louis.

Williamson debuted with the Mariners last year, producing a suboptimal .310 SLG and 76 wRC+. Even less appealing, a 3.3-percent barrel rate that was 26th lowest among 274 hitters with 200 batted ball events. Defensively, the second round pick demonstrated promise with a middle of the pack zero FRV.

Fielding Run Value (FRV) is Statcast's metric for capturing a player’s overall measurable defensive performance. ZERO is always average.

As for Cijntje and Peete, both are former first round picks. MLB prospect pipeline ranked Cijntje as its 91st best, while Keith Law of The Athletic didn’t include Cijntje or Peete in his annual top-100 prospect list.

The ambidextrous Cijntje is a fascinating prospect. It’s worth noting Seattle announced over the weekend that he’d be pitching as a right-hander in 2025, although the door was left open for a return to being a dual-armed hurler again in the future. That decision now rests with Cardinals management.

Peete primarily played center field in 2025 and reportedly performed well with his glove. That said, it’s tough for this nerd to ignore a 30.6-percent strikeout rate in each of the last two seasons at Class-A Modesto and High-A Everett. Then again, Peete is entering his age-20 season. The pathway to growth and development remains wide open.

The Get

Conversely, Donovan is exceptional at making contact. In 2025, his 13-percent strikeout rate was 13th lowest among 145 qualified hitters. Mariners with similar success included Josh Naylor (13.7%) and Jorge Polanco (15.6%).

Last year, Donovan’s .353 OBP tied for 30th best among qualified hitters. Adding his superb on-base ability to a batting order that already includes Cal Raleigh (.359 OBP), Josh Naylor (.353), J.P. Crawford (.352), Randy Arozarena (.334), and Julio Rodríguez (.324) should enhance Seattle’s ability to generate RBI opportunities in 2026.

Another lens to view Donovan through is offensive value. His 119 wRC+ signals he was nearly 20-percent more productive than the average hitter in MLB last year.

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantifies how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.

Something else to consider - Donovan’s uncanny consistency. Last year, the German-born All-Star’s production numbers were very similar to what he delivered to St. Louis since debuting in 2022.

Donovan’s Unwavering Production

2025: .287 AVG, .353 OBP, .422 SLG, 119 wRC+
Career: .282 AVG, .361 OBP, .411 SLG, 119 wRC+

It’s worth noting Donovan’s 119 wRC+ over the last four seasons ranks 56th among 306 hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances. A review of this list reveals he’s surrounded by many notable names, including several current and former Mariners.

Players with a Similar wRC+ to Brendan Donovan Since 2022*

Christian Yelich (123)
George Springer (123)
Josh Naylor (123)
Brandon Nimmo (121)
Randy Arozarena (121)
Trea Turner (120)
Max Muncy (120)
Carlos Correa (120)
Bo Bichette (120)
Riley Greene (119)
Brendan Donovan (119)
Ian Happ (119)
Eugenio Suárez (119)
Luke Raley (119)
Taylor Ward (119)
Luis Arraez (118)
Teoscar Hernández (118)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (117)
Ryan O’Hearn (117)
Matt Chapman (117)
Jarren Duran (116)
Anthony Santander (116)
Giancarlo Stanton (116)
Vinnie Pasquantino (115)
Jorge Polanco (115)
Adley Rutschman (115)
Jordan Westburg (115)

* 1,000 PA minimum

Where Donovan plays in the field for the Mariners will be determined in Spring Training and likely evolves as the season progresses. But based on his history, the 29-year-old will see time at multiple positions.

Brendan Donovan’s MLB Innings by Position

1B (151)
2B (1,757)
SS (106)
3B (270)
LF (1,246)
RF (205)

To this blogger, Donovan playing second base and third base makes the most sense. This opinion is based on the team’s current situation at those two positions.

Rookie Cole Young led Seattle with 68 second base starts last year followed by Polanco (34). Polanco is now a Met, while Young struggled at the plate late last season. Moreover, his minus-seven FRV was second worst among second basemen with only Brandon Lowe behind him.

The departures of Eugenio Suárez and Williamson leaves Miles Mastrobuoni as the only player on the 40-man roster who started MLB games at third base in 2025. That said, the Mariners likely give top prospect Colt Emerson a real opportunity to start the season at the hot corner. A word of caution: Emerson doesn’t turn 21 until July. Therefore, managing expectations is advisable.

And that’s where Donovan comes in.

Donovan can play anywhere in the infield with second base being his primary spot in 2025. He made 91 starts at the keystone and also started five contests at shortstop and another 18 in left field. I suspect the position the veteran plays most often will hinge on the performance of the inexperienced cadre of Young, Emerson, Ryan Bliss, and Leo Rivas.

There’s a lot to like about Donovan. But we should acknowledge areas that could potentially dampen the very high expectations Mariners fans have for the University of South Alabama product.

The left-handed hitting Donovan was extremely productive against right-handed pitching last season. However, there was a significant gap in his platoon splits.

Donovan’s Platoon Splits (2025)

vs RHP: .315 AVG, .383 OBP, .471 SLG
vs LHP: .230 AVG, .292 OBP, .322 SLG

To be clear, I’m not suggesting Donovan is a platoon candidate - he’s not. But it’s worth noting that southpaws enjoyed much more success against the seventh round pick than their right-handed counterparts in 2025.

Another factor to mull over. Injuries have negatively impacted Donovan’s availability in two of his four big-league campaigns. In 2023, he missed the final two months of the season with an elbow issue. Last year, the one-time Gold Glove winner underwent sports hernia surgery in October after being sidelined with a groin strain in August and September.

Again, no alarm is being sounded. But it’s important to recognize Donovan missed 25-percent of Cardinal games over the past three years.

Finally

In two ways, Donovan is an ideal pickup for the Mariners. His presence solidifies and elevates the lineup of a team with World Series aspirations. Moreover, his positional versatility will provide opportunities for the organization’s stable of prized infield prospects to potentially contribute in 2026 and beyond.

That’s a win-win scenario for the team and its fan base.

My Oh My…

Not long ago, we considered second base trade candidates for the Mariners. Players included in our conversation were Jake Cronenworth, Brandon Lowe, Ketel Marte, Brendan Donovan, and Jeff McNeil. But a lot has changed since early December.

Lowe and McNeil have since been traded, while Ken Rosenthal and Maria Torres of The Athletic report Marte is off the market. Of the two remaining players from our original list, only Donovan makes sense for Seattle from a performance, roster, and organizational perspective. But what if the Mariners and Cardinals cannot agree to terms on a deal that brings Donovan to the Pacific Northwest?

Just today, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times suggested another established name the Mariners could possibly pursue. Someone the team has reportedly expressed interest in during previous winters - Nico Hoerner of the Cubs. Let us consider what makes Hoerner an intriguing option.

Selling points: A main component of Hoerner’s offensive value is his ability to reach base. Dating back to the beginning of the 2023 campaign, the Stanford product boasts a .342 OBP. Notable big-leaguers reaching first base at a similar clip include Mariners Randy Arozarena and Josh Naylor, plus All-Stars Francisco Lindor, George Springer, and Corbin Carroll.

Taking a lot of free passes is not how Hoerner manages to get on base so often. He had a below-average 6-percent walk rate last year. Instead, his specialty is making contact. Only two of 145 qualified hitters produced a lower strikeout rate than Hoerner did in 2025. They were Luis Arráez (3.1-percent) and Jacob Wilson (7.5-percent).

If Hoerner happened to be dealt to the Mariners this offseason, it’s difficult to confidently predict how he might perform in baseball’s most extreme pitcher’s park. But according to Statcast, only Seattle’s T-Mobile Park suppressed right-handed offense more than Chicago’s Wrigley Field over the past three seasons. Yet, Hoerner produced a .282 AVG and .341 OBP at home during this period.

Hoerner’s 28.6 feet-per-second sprint speed tied for 29th best among 186 players with at least 150 competitive runs. This quickness undoubtedly contributed to his 29 stolen bases in 2025. The only Mariner with a better sprint speed than the 24th overall draft pick in 2018 was Julio Rodríguez (29.2 feet-per-second).

Sprint Speed is a Statcast product that measures how many feet-per-second a player runs in his fastest one-second window. The MLB average is 27 feet-per-second.

Hoerner won his second Gold Glove last year. Even better, the metrics support the selection. The Oakland, California native’s Fielding Run Value (FRV) of 13 tied for 10th best among all defenders and was tops among second basemen. Conversely, Cole Young accrued minus-7 FRV in 621 innings at the keystone for the Mariners during his rookie season.

Fielding Run Value (FRV) is Statcast's metric for capturing a player’s overall measurable defensive performance. ZERO is always average.

Although he was primarily a second baseman with the Cubs last year, Hoerner did play three complete games and cover 37 innings at shortstop. It’s worth noting he was Chicago’s regular shortstop until Dansby Swanson signed with the team after the 2022 campaign. During Hoerner’s last full year at shortstop, his 10 FRV was third best behind the MLB-leading Swanson.

Potential concerns: Hoerner puts the ball in play, but it’s unlikely to be loud, quality contact. Last year, his 30.3-percent hard-hit rate was 10th lowest among those 145 qualified hitters. Similarly, just five players had a lower barrel rate than the 2.3-percent produced by the 28-year-old. This helps explain the fact just four qualified hitters had fewer home runs than Hoerner in 2025.

Over the past three seasons, Hoerner has averaged 152 games annually. But before 2023, he did deal with a variety of maladies that negatively affected his availability. Issues included ankle, oblique, hamstring, and rib injuries. Furthermore, the Head-Royce School alum underwent offseason flexor tendon surgery in October 2024.

Perhaps the flexor injury explains the decrease in Hoerner’s arm strength over the past four seasons. In 2022, his throws averaged 85.3 mph - 19th best among shortstops. By last year, that velocity was down to 75.5 mph, which ranked 58th of 67 second basemen.

Thoughts: If today was Opening Day, the Mariners would likely begin the season with Young and fellow second-year player Ben Williamson at second base and third base respectively. It’s also plausible Leo Rivas and prospects Colt Emerson and Michael Arroyo work their way into the mix during Spring Training. Still, adding an established infield starter between now and March 26 makes so much sense to this nerd.

If Donovan turns out to be unavailable or ends up with another team, Hoerner would be a wonderful alternative. He reaches base often and is a superb base runner with elite-level defensive skills. This combination should trump any power deficiencies. Furthermore, playing in 94-percent of his club’s games since 2023 signals excellent durability.

Still, I struggle to envision the Cubs moving Hoerner this offseason. Chicago has been aggressively buying this offseason. Why would a club with World Series aspirations trade a player of Hoerner’s ilk now?

Then again, stranger things have happened.

My Oh My…

Perhaps to some, the Mariners signing veteran Rob Refsnyder to a one-year deal today isn’t big news. But hey, the Hot Stove has cooled for Seattle lately. So, let’s consider what adding Refsnyder may mean for the team in 2026.

Selling points: As Daniel Kramer of MLB noted, Refsnyder has been extremely productive against left-handed pitching over the past four seasons with the Red Sox. During this span, the Arizona alum was top-5 in AVG, OBP, and wRC+ among right-handed hitters with 500-plus plate appearances versus southpaws.

To add a Seattle component to Refsnyder’s impressive numbers, I devised a novel comparison. The newest Mariner versus Jorge Polanco, who is now a Met. It turns out Refsnyder’s stat line holds up very well compared to Polanco’s.

Just to be clear. In no way am I suggesting Refsnyder will be a plug-and-play replacement for the switch-hitting Polanco. Still, his platoon success suggests he could at least partially mitigate the loss of Polanco’s recent productivity versus lefty pitching.

Refsnyder made loud, quality contact on a regular basis. This year, 348 players had at least 200 plate appearances. Just 20 had a higher hard-hit rate than the Korean product did. Furthermore, his career-high 12.3-percent barrel rate ranked 73rd, tying him with Bryce Harper and Kerry Carpenter.

Potential concerns: Refsnyder missed two weeks in August with an oblique strain. This was his eighth trip to the injured list in the last five seasons.

Refsnyder IL Stints Since 2021

Jun 2021 - Concussion (7 days)
Jun 2021 - Hamstring strain (52 days)
Sep 2021 - Elbow impingement (17 days)
Jul 2022 - Sprained MCL (17 days)
Oct 2022 - Lower back spasms (3 days*)
Mar 2024 - Toe fracture (24 days)
Sep 2024 - Forearm strain (11 days*)
Aug 2025 - Oblique strain (13 days)

* Finished season on IL

Source: Baseball Prospectus

Am I suggesting Refsnyder is fragile? Not at all. But his recent injury history is worth mentioning considering his 35th birthday is Opening Day. As the Rolling Stones once said, “time waits for no one.”

From a defensive perspective, Statcast rates Refsnyder’s range in left field as below average over the past three years. During this period, the 5th round pick of the Yankees in 2012 accrued minus-6 outs above average (OAA), which ranked 45th among 65 players with at least 150 attempts in left field.

This may not necessarily be a concern. But we should at least consider Refsnyder’s recent defensive experience. Even though his résumé lists multiple positions played through the years, he’s been an outfielder since the beginning of the 2021 season.

Based on the team’s announcement today, it intends on using Refsnyder in the outfield and as an alternative to first baseman Josh Naylor. But it’s a position he hasn’t played in a big-league game in over five years.

More fuel for thought: Refsnyder’s history at T-Mobile Park - he barely has any. Since making his MLB debut in 2015, the graduate of Laguna Hills High School has played in seven games in the Emerald City. Just four in four seasons with Boston.

Thoughts: Refsnyder’s presence should raise the floor of the Mariners’ bench. This matters over the course of an arduous 162-game season and, perhaps, a deep run in the playoffs.

As for the defense, perhaps playing left field with the Green Monster behind him somehow factored into Refsnyder’s diminished left field metrics. Moreover, reacclimating to first base seems doable based on his background and the fact the Mariners have infield guru Perry Hill available to assist.

Still, the Mariners didn’t sign Refsnyder for his defensive acumen. Instead, his main mission will be to crush southpaw pitching. If he can deliver in that respect, the team made a great move today.

My Oh My…

We recently discussed potential outfield trade targets for the Mariners. Now, let’s turn our attention to second basemen mentioned by national and local media outlets as possible fits for Seattle in 2026.

Jake Cronenworth - Padres

Selling points: Cronenworth had a career high .367 OBP this year, which tied for 11th best with Freddie Freeman. The closest Mariner on the list was Cal Raleigh (.359). Taking free passes played a big role in this on-base success. Just 12 qualified hitters had a higher walk rate than Cronenworth.

The left-handed hitting Cronenworth provided more power against right-handed pitching. Otherwise, he managed to have relatively even platoon splits.

Platoon Splits (2025)

vs RHP: .245 AVG, .364 OBP, .388 SLG
vs LHP: .248 AVG, .373 OBP, .353 SLG

Over the past five seasons, Cronenworth has played in 727 games, which averages out to 145 annually and is the highest tally of any player we will discuss.

Cronenworth demonstrated an interesting mix of positional versatility this year. The two-time All-Star’s primary position was second base. But he also made 10 starts at shortstop and started nine contests at first base.

Despite being on the wrong side of 30, Cronenworth boasted an above-average sprint speed of 28.1 feet-per-second.

Potential concerns: Cronenworth’s bat didn’t have a lot of pop in it. The former Michigan Wolverine delivered 32 extra base hits - the fewest of his career with the exception of the truncated 2020 season.

Cronenworth’s productivity was noticeably better on the road than at Petco Park, which matters to this nerd. Statcast Park Factors rates San Diego’s home field as fifth worst for left-handed hitters, while T-Mobile Park ranks last.

Home/Away Splits (2025)

Home: .218 AVG, .360 OBP, .330 SLG
Away: .270 AVG, .373 OBP, .419 SLG

Brandon Lowe - Rays

Selling points: Lowe’s 31 home runs tied with Jazz Chisholm Jr. for the MLB lead among second basemen. Moreover, just three positional peers delivered a better SLG than the Maryland alum - Ketel Marte, Jorge Polanco, and Chisholm.

Lowe frequently makes loud contact. The left-handed hitter had the third highest hard-hit and barrel rates among second basemen.

In addition to playing second base, Lowe has appeared in 16 games at first base over the past three seasons.

Potential concerns: Lowe’s 26.9-percent strikeout rate could potentially climb if he were playing home games at T-Mobile Park. As we discussed during our outfield conversation, the Mariners struck out 2.4-percent more often at home than on the road in 2025, the greatest home field disadvantage in baseball.

Health has been an ongoing concern with Lowe. Over the last five seasons, he’s averaged 113 games annually. Dating back to 2022, he’s landed on the injured list eight times, including two stints this year.

Lowe IL Stints Since 2022

May 2022 - Stress reaction in lower back (61 days)
Aug 2022 - Triceps contusion (10 days)
Sep 2022 - Lower back discomfort (24 days)
Jun 2023 - Lower back inflammation (30 days)
Sep 2023 - Fractured patella (10 days)
Apr 2024 - Oblique strain (41 days)
Jul 2025 - Oblique tightness (10 days)
Jul 2025 - Ankle tendonitis (10 days)

Source: Baseball Prospectus

Lowe wasn’t effective against southpaws. His .548 OPS ranked 53rd of 61 lefty bats with 100 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Defensive range was problematic for Lowe this year. The Virginian accrued minus-13 Outs Above Average (OAA), which ranked last among 46 second basemen. Finishing in 45th place with minus-9 OAA was Cole Young.

Ketel Marte - Diamondbacks

Selling points: Marte is a superb run producer. His 145 wRC+ was seventh best, while the two-time Silver Slugger’s OBP and SLG were top-15. Furthermore, he was one of just eight hitters to break the .280 AVG threshold and clobber at least 25 home runs.

Even though Marte possesses a potent bat, he limits strikeouts. This year, his 14.9-percent strikeout rate ranked 29th.

Marte’s 4.6 fWAR was number-two among second basemen just behind Nico Hoerner (4.8). Overall, the Dominican was 24th best in MLB.

The switch-hitting Marte had strikingly similar platoon splits.

Platoon Splits (2025)

v RHP: .287 AVG, .376 OBP, .517 SLG
v LHP: .277 AVG, .375 OBP, .516 SLG

From a defensive perspective, Marte’s one OAA signals his range was slightly above average.

Potential concerns: Games played have dropped in each of the last three years. In 2023, Marte appeared in 150 contests and then 136 the following season. In 2025, the 11-year veteran played in 126 games.

Marte’s IL stints have not been long. But he’s dealt with hamstring issues dating back to the 2021 campaign.

IL Stints Since 2021

Apr 2021 - Hamstring strain (41 days)
Jun 2021 - Hamstring (34 days)
Aug 2024 - Ankle sprain (18 days)
Apr 2025 - Hamstring strain (27 days)

Source: Baseball Prospectus

Brendan Donovan - Cardinals

Selling points: Donovan also avoids the swing and miss. His 13-percent strikeout rate ranked 13th of 145 qualified hitters.

Although he doesn’t hit a lot of home runs, Donovan hits doubles. His 32 two-baggers this year would’ve tied for the Mariners team lead with Randy Arozarena.

Donovan is a consistent offensive performer. His production numbers this year were remarkably close to his career stat line.

Donovan’s Consistent Production

2025: .287 AVG, .353 OBP, .422 SLG, 119 wRC+
Career: .282 AVG, .361 OBP, .411 SLG, 119 wRC+

Donovan was primarily a second baseman in 2025. However, he’s demonstrated the ability to play multiple positions. He appeared in 100 games at the keystone, plus 18 in left field and six at shortstop. The South Alabama alum also has previous MLB experience at first base, third base and in right field.

Potential concerns: When facing right-handers, Donovan has a .812 OPS in four big-league seasons. Conversely, he has a .651 OPS against left-handers. This year, the All-Star’s production versus southpaws was even worse.

Platoon Splits (2025)

vs RHP: .315 AVG, .383 OBP, .471 SLG
vs LHP: .230 AVG, .292 OBP, .322 SLG

Considering his relatively young age, this may be a nothing-burger. Donovan underwent sports hernia surgery in October. This comes after he was on the injured list in August-September due to a groin injury. It’s also worth noting that he previously dealt with foot pain that was initially blamed for irritating his groin.

Jeff McNeil - Mets

Selling points: McNeil has the lowest strikeout rate of any of the players we’ve discussed. Only 13 of 215 hitters with 400 plate appearances were better than the left-handed hitter.

For those who subscribe to “clutchiness,” McNeil produced a .278 AVG and an .862 OPS with runners in scoring position (RISP). For his career, he has a .286 AVG and an .801 OPS in 874 plate appearances with RISP.

McNeil made 69 starts at second base. But he also started 28 contests in center field and another seven in corner outfield spots. The Long Beach State product accrued four OAA, which ranked 12th of 46 qualified second baseman and was better than the players we’ve discussed.

Potential concerns: McNeil, who turns 34 in April, has been on the injury list in four of the last five seasons with wrist, elbow, and hamstring issues. This year, he missed the first month of the season with an oblique strain. In 2024-25, the two-time All-Star averaged 126 games. There’s more.

McNeil had offseason thoracic outlet surgery in October. His agent expects the 2022 NL Batting Champion to be ready for Spring Training.

Thoughts

Based on what I think I know about the Mariners, Donovan is the only logical choice of the five names we discussed.

Donovan’s consistency at the plate is very appealing. That said, his ability to move around the infield may matter most to a club like the Mariners, which probably doesn’t want to block its infield prospects from reaching the big leagues.

Yes, Marte is the best hitter and player on our list. However, the three-time All-Star doesn’t make sense long-term. He’s under contract through his age-37 season, a likely no-go for Seattle.

It feels like Lowe’s name has been mentioned as a potential trade candidate for the Mariners in every offseason of the club’s existence. His power is enticing, but injury issues and suboptimal defensive range are red flags for this blogger.

Considering McNeil’s extensive injury history and advancing age, it’s reasonable to wonder how the outlet procedure affects the California native’s availability and performance at the plate and in the field in 2026.

Cronenworth is under contract through the end of this decade when he’ll be 36-years-old. Much like Marte, the Mariners acquiring the Michigan native, a league-average hitter over the past three seasons, would be a perplexing move.

My Oh My…

The Mariners upgraded their bullpen with today’s acquisition of left-handed reliever Jose A. Ferrer from the Nationals in exchange for two prospects - catcher Harry Ford and pitcher Isaac Lyon.

Ferrer, who appeared in 72 games for Washington this year, debuted with the club in 2023 and will turn 26 in March. Let’s walk through his numbers, as we did during our most recent trade target discussion.

Selling points: Opponents had a 4.8-percent barrel rate against Ferrer, which was better than any Mariner pitcher who faced at least 100 batters. The third-year reliever’s aversion to the loudest of contact led to a 1.5-percent home run rate that was half the MLB average of 3.1-percent.

Free passes were also rare for Ferrer. Gabe Speier (4.5%) was the only Seattle hurler to best his 4.9-percent walk rate.

Ferrer was extremely effective against lefty bats. With the exception of strikeouts, the Dominican Republic native limited opponents to a slash line that was very similar to Speier’s and much better than the MLB average in nearly every category.

Ferrer’s numbers were dramatically better on the road than at Nationals Park this season. This is a plus considering where he’ll be pitching home games in 2026.

Home/Away Splits (2025)

Home: .312 AVG, .364 OBP, .426 SLG
Away: .242 AVG, .291 OBP, .340 SLG

According to Statcast’s Park Factors, Washington’s home field is baseball’s sixth most hitter-friendly venue. As I’ve noted 7,239 times this year, T-Mobile Park favors pitchers more than any location in MLB. Therefore, the change of scenery should benefit the 25-year-old next season.

This year, Ferrer generated a 62.6-percent ground ball rate. Of the 199 pitchers logging at least 70 innings, only two had a higher ground ball rate - José Soriano (65.3%) and Jhoan Duran (65%).

Ferrer brings the heat. The 6-foot-1, 233-pounder threw 25 pitches with a velocity of 100 mph-or-greater. The only Mariner to best this mark was Andrés Muñoz with 35 warp-speed offerings. Furthermore, the average velocity of Ferrer’s sinker was 97.7 mph - fifth-highest among 120 pitchers throwing 300-plus sinkers.

Although he predominantly appeared in the seventh and eighth inning for the Nationals, Ferrer has been exposed to closing games. All told, he saved 11 contests in the final two months of the 2025 campaign.

Ferrer also demonstrated the ability to pitch multiple innings this year. He recorded four-plus outs in 19 relief appearances, including five outings covering two frames.

Potential concerns: Ferrer’s .276 AVG placed 140th among 153 relievers facing at least 200 hitters, while his .310 wOBA ranked 122nd. Suboptimal results that must improve moving forward.

While Ferrer was exceptional against left-handed hitters, the same can’t be said about opponents in the other batter’s box. Right-handed bats produced a .312 AVG, .364 OBP, .426 SLG against him. For additional perspective, consider this. Ferrer’s opponent AVG was the highest of any southpaw facing 200 right-handed hitters.

Even though Ferrer’s sinker was one of the fastest in baseball, opponents managed to hit .309 against it this year. In 2024, it yielded a .227 AVG for the southpaw. Good enough for 10th best among 65 relievers throwing the pitch 250 times. It’s reasonable to wonder whether Ferrer’s sinker will rebound, regress, or remain somewhat effective in 2026.

Possible smoking gun: Ferrer’s opponent AVG and OBP are definitely unappealing. But there’s evidence worth considering when discussing a pitcher whose success is contingent on keeping the ball on the ground. His team’s infield defense was suspect in 2025.

The Nationals’ infield contingent accrued a minus-27 Fielding Run Value (FRV) - the worst in baseball. This had to factor into Washington’s .282 AVG on ground balls being the highest allowed by any team. In Ferrer’s case, opponents hit .273 on ground balls he surrendered, which was 24 points above the MLB average.

To me, a pitcher with the third highest ground ball rate in baseball with the worst infield defense behind him is bound to experience damaging results on grounders. Perhaps this is one of many factors influencing the Mariners to acquire Ferrer.

Before moving on, it’s important to note Seattle’s infield FRV was third worst. Clearly, work needs to be done to tighten up the group’s defense. Especially with a ground ball machine like Ferrer entering the mix. That said, the infield is expected to undergo a makeover and will likely look different by Opening Day than it did for the 2025 season opener.

Thoughts: The addition of Ferrer instantly makes Seattle’s bullpen deeper and better. The move also gives manager Dan Wilson another southpaw to pair with Speier, who was exceptional against left- and right-handed hitters in 2025. That said, Ferrer improving against righty bats next season would be a beneficial development to the unit’s overall success.

Assuming good health, the Mariners will have Speier, Matt Brash, Eduard Bazardo, and now Ferrer to serve as the bridge between the starter and Muñoz. An excellent foundation and it’s only December 6.

My Oh My…

The Winter Meetings begin next week. So, let’s begin our Hot Stove chatter with four cherry-picked outfielders I view as intriguing trade targets for the Mariners.

To be clear, I’m assuming the respective clubs of these players are interested in dealing them this offseason. This may not be true. Furthermore, Seattle may be satisfied with Randy Arozarena in left field, Julio Rodríguez in center field, and some combination of Dominic Canzone, Víctor Robles, and Luke Raley covering right field.

Then again, speculation fuels the Hot Stove. We can temporarily suspend reality to assume the players we’re about to discuss are available and the Mariners are interested in acquiring them.

Steven Kwan - LF, Guardians

Selling points: Since debuting in 2022, Kwan boasts an outstanding 9.5-percent strikeout rate. Among 306 qualified hitters, only Luis Arráez (4.9-percent) was better.

Kwan has averaged 30 doubles annually. The former Oregon State Beaver’s 29 two-baggers this year would’ve ranked fourth on the Mariners behind Arozarena (32), Rodríguez (31), and Jorge Polanco (30).

Although Statcast rates his sprint speed as average-ish, Kwan has stolen 73 bases in four seasons. Arozarena (31) and Rodríguez (30) were the only Mariners to swipe more bags than Kwan’s 21 steals in 2025.

Since 2022, Kwan has a .321 AVG, .361 OBP, and .404 SLG whenever the temperature dips below 50 degrees. Considering the Mariners had the third most plate appearances in sub-50 degree conditions during this period, cold-weather numbers matter to this nerd.

The metrics validate Kwan’s four consecutive Gold Gloves. His 12 Fielding Run Value (FRV) this year was best among 46 left fielders. Moreover, Statcast rated him as the best outfielder at preventing extra bases.

Potential concerns: Kwan’s .374 SLG ranked 129th, just ahead of J.P. Crawford (.370). Not a surprise considering Kwan’s hard-hit and barrel rates were bottom-five.

Perhaps this is a nothing-burger. Kwan’s OBP dropped .038 points from the season prior. Just 12 hitters experienced a steeper decline in 2025.

The left-handed hitter wasn’t particularly productive against southpaws with a .581 OPS versus lefties and a .764 OPS against right-handers.

Jarren Duran - LF/CF, Red Sox

Selling points: If we use the FanGraphs version of Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) to define value, Duran (12.8 fWAR) is the 12th most valuable position player since 2024. Better than Corbin Carroll (10.9), Rodríguez (9.7), and Fernando Tatis Jr. (9.4).

Only 20 players produced a better average sprint speed than Duran’s 29.1 feet-per-second. This quickness permitted the Long Beach State product to lead the American League in triples the last two years and average 29 stolen bases.

No one played more outfield innings than Duran did in 2024-25. During this period, his 13 FRV was 14th best among outfielders. Like Kwan, the 2024 All-Star was exceptional at preventing extra bases.

Potential concerns: The left-handed hitting Duran isn’t that effective against left-handed pitching. During 2,128 big-league plate appearances, he has a .837 OPS against righty hurlers and a much lower .620 OPS versus lefties.

Strikeouts are part of Duran’s profile. His 24.3-percent strikeout rate was only two clicks above the MLB average, which isn’t terrible. But it’s important to recognize the Mariners struck out 2.4-percent more often at T-Mobile Park than they did on the road - the highest delta of any club in 2025.

Duran performed better at Fenway Park, baseball’s second-friendliest venue for offense. He wasn’t awful on the road, although the drop-off is worth mentioning.

Duran’s Home/Away Splits (2024-25)

Home: .289 AVG, .363 OBP, .517 SLG
Away: .256 AVG, .319 OBP, .446 SLG

Duran’s value took a hit this year. The California native’s fWAR dropped from 6.8 to 3.9, while FRV went from an outstanding 11 to a slightly above-average two. Meanwhile, his OPS fell 60 points.

Alec Burleson - 1B/LF/RF/DH, Cardinals

Selling points: Burleson’s 124 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) was 40th best. Only three Mariners with the team all season placed ahead of him - Cal Raleigh (161), Polanco (132), and Rodríguez (126).

Although Burleson isn’t as proficient at avoiding whiffs as Kwan, his 14.5-percent strikeout rate was 25th lowest. Unlike Cleveland’s left fielder, Burleson managed to deliver significantly more pop.

Forty-nine hitters had a higher SLG than Burleson - only seven had a lower strikeout rate. They were José Ramírez, Geraldo Perdomo, Cody Bellinger, Josh Naylor, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Yandy Díaz, and Bo Bichette. An impressive list of names.

The left-handed hitting Burleson didn’t have a significant platoon disadvantage. Against southpaws, he had a .271 AVG - good enough for 14th best among lefty bats.

Potential concerns: Burleson hit noticeably better at Busch Stadium, which Statcast Park Factors rates as average for hitters. As we all know, T-Mobile Park ranks last.

Burleson’s Home/Away Splits (2025)

Home: .302 AVG, .358 OBP, .500 SLG
Away: .278 AVG, .327 OBP, .420 SLG

Burleson’s 25.5 feet-per-second sprint speed ranked 250th this year.

The metrics consistently signal Burleson is a below-average defender. His minus-12 FRV since 2022 ties for 84th place.

Ronald Acuña Jr. - RF, Braves

Selling points: Only four of 215 hitters with 400 plate appearances this year bested Acuña’s 161 wRC+. They were Aaron Judge (204), Shohei Ohtani (172), Nick Kurtz (170), and George Springer (166).

Conventionally speaking, Acuña was second best in OBP with only Judge being better. A relatively high AVG helped propel his on-base numbers. So did a 17.2-percent walk rate that was outdone by just two hitters - Judge (18.2%) and Juan Soto (17.8%).

From a power perspective, Acuña’s .515 SLG over the past five seasons is 9th best. This is directly attributable to his top-15 hard-hit and barrel rates.

Potential concerns: As with Duran, strikeouts could become more prominent for Acuña if he were playing home games in Seattle.

Availability has been a challenge for Acuña, who’s been on the injured list every year dating back to 2020. All told, he’s averaged 101 games annually over the past five campaigns. ACL surgeries on both knees and an Achilles issue are the main culprits.

Injuries have seemingly eroded Acuña’s speed. When the Venezuelan debuted in 2018, he had a sprint speed of 29.6 feet-per-second. This year, he was down to 27.9 feet-per-second. Slightly better than average, but a considerable decline nonetheless.

We see a similar trend with Acuña’s defense. He went from one Out Above Average (OAA) in 2021 to minus-11 OAA this year, which ranked 107th of 111 outfielders.

Thoughts

For me, Kwan would be the best fit for the Mariners followed by Duran, Burleson, and Acuña.

Kwan doesn’t mash. But his excellent on-base ability, savvy base running, and top-shelf defense make him an ideal pickup for any serious contender.

It’s possible that Duran’s 2025 numbers reflect what he’ll be moving forward. If true, the 29-year-old would still be an excellent addition. After all, what club wouldn’t want to add a player with top-40 value to its roster this offseason?

Perhaps Burleson would be a better fit at designated hitter. That said, he’s capable of helping his club by playing a corner outfield spot or first base, when needed.

When healthy, Acuña is one of baseball’s best. For this reason, he merits discussion during Hot Stove banter. However, acquiring a position player who has missed 38-percent of his club’s games since the beginning of 2021 would be a risky undertaking.

My Oh My…

We’ve recently discussed position player needs for the Mariners and the current state of the starting rotation. Now, let’s turn our attention to the bullpen - the most volatile segment of the roster in terms of turnover and performance.

Turnover: Before considering the stable of relievers the Mariners used in 2025, let’s reflect on the comings and goings of Seattle’s bullpen in recent seasons. Doing so may help shape expectations for the offseason.

Since the end of 2021, between six and seven Seattle relievers logged at least 30 innings with the team each season. Yet, no more than three of those pitchers would reach 30 frames as a Mariner the following year. Considering relievers amassing the most innings tend to provide the greatest value to a club, the changing of the guard has been substantial and consistent.

The following illustrates Mariner relievers reaching 30 innings with the 2021 campaign being the baseline. Names in bold duplicated the accomplishment the next season. Only Andrés Muñoz made the list four times.

There are a variety of reasons relievers didn’t log 30-plus frames in consecutive years. Several were traded. Kendall Graveman, Paul Sewald, Erik Swanson, Will Vest, Justin Topa, Anthony Misiewicz, and Rafael Montero fall into this category.

Injuries affected the availability of Casey Sadler, Penn Murfee, Matt Brash, and Gabe Speier. Sadler hasn’t pitched in MLB since 2021. Murfee missed the 2024 season before appearing with the White Sox this year. Fortunately, Speier rebounded with an excellent 2025, as did Brash.

Others were subsequently plagued by ineffectiveness. Several pitched for Class-AAA Tacoma or were let go by the organization. Recognizable names include Drew Steckenrider, Matt Festa, Diego Castillo, and Tayler Saucedo.

When we focus on the 2025 bullpen, there has already been churn. Free agents Luke Jackson and Caleb Ferguson are no longer Mariners. Assuming neither re-signs, new acquisitions or someone from within will need to cover the 33.1 innings pitched by the duo.

Since we’re talking business, there’s another factor to consider - arbitration. Per MLB Trade Rumors, six Seattle relievers are eligible with varying levels of pay hikes projected.

Arb-Eligible SEA Pitchers

Trent Thornton ($2.5M)
Matt Brash ($1.8M)
Gabe Speier ($1.7M)
Tayler Saucedo ($1.1M)
Gregory Santos ($800K)
Jackson Kowar ($800K)

Source: MLB Trade Rumors

Relatively speaking, the preceding salaries don’t seem high to this blogger. Based on the quality of their performances in 2025, Matt Brash and Gabe Speier seem like no-brainers to return. That said, I have no idea on how the front office views the remaining names.

Would it make sense for the Mariners to obligate more money to Trent Thornton next year than Brash and Speier? Thornton’s numbers regressed in 2025 and the 32-year-old suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in August. To me, his future with the Mariners is unsettled.

The outlook for Tayler Saucedo also seems cloudy. Although his projected salary isn’t much higher than next year’s MLB minimum ($780,000), Saucedo made just 10 appearances with the Mariners this year due to ineffectiveness. The rest of the time, the southpaw pitched for Tacoma.

Jackson Kowar isn’t set for a big payday either. But the 29-year-old didn’t appear after August 18 due to a shoulder impingement. It’s worth noting Tommy John surgery cost Kowar all of last season and the first two months of the 2025 campaign.

Perhaps the most enigmatic figure is Gregory Santos. Since being acquired in February 2024, Santos has spent 315 days on the injured list with just 16 appearances as a Mariner. Being 26-years-old and possessing a promising arm are factors in his favor. Then again, spending time on the IL in each of the last four seasons isn’t.

Performance: The numbers tell us the 2024 bullpen was much better than this year’s version. It was top-5 in AVG, OBP, wOBA, xwOBA, plus strikeout and hard-hit rates. Pitching fewer innings than any relief staff in baseball certainly helped the cause.

This year’s crew ranked 11th in innings - commensurate with its overall effectiveness. Not terrible, but a noteworthy decline after a strong 2024.

Thoughts: Business-related attrition is a reason to reload. So is reversing the regression the bullpen experienced this year. Therefore, expect many new relievers with the Mariners by the times Spring Training begins. In fact, change is already underway.

Seattle has already acquired Cole Wilcox and Domingo González. The constant drumbeat of relief arms arriving via trades, waiver claims, and major- and minor-league free agent signings will continue between now and until forever.

Potential Relievers on 40-Man Roster (Nov 7, 2025)

Blas Castano
Cole Wilcox
Domingo González
Emerson Hancock
Carlos Vargas
Logan Evans
Casey Legumina
Gregory Santos
Matt Brash
Jackson Kowar
Troy Taylor
Trent Thornton
Andrés Muñoz
Eduard Bazardo
Jhonathan Díaz

Source: Baseball Reference

Just to be clear, I don’t know how the organization views Emerson Hancock, Logan Evans, Jhonathan Díaz, and Blas Castano. If I identified a potential starter pool, they would be on that list, too.

As the hot stove begins warming, we’ll revisit potential relief pitcher targets that might make sense for the Mariners to pursue. That said, I would be surprised if the team spent big on a high-profile free agent reliever. It doesn’t have a history of doing so. Plus, the organization is adept at guiding lesser-known pitchers towards becoming a better version of themselves.

Previous success stories include Graveman, Sewald, Swanson, Topa, Speier, and Brash. Granted, not every project delivered the superb results as these pitchers did. But the Mariners pitching lab clearly knows what it’s doing.

My Oh My…

The Mariners are a year removed from having the best rotation in baseball. But the starting staff was closer to league-average than number-one in 2025. Considering the regression we just witnessed, it’s reasonable to question whether Seattle’s “Core Five” of Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo can ever reproduce the excellence it delivered in 2024.

As always, the future is uncertain. But let’s consider two critical factors influencing my outlook for the 2026 rotation. The availability and performance of the Core Five this year.

Availability

Only two Mariners made 30-plus starts this year - Castillo and Woo. Arm-related injuries led to Gilbert, Kirby, and Miller missing significant time. In their absence, Seattle turned to Emerson Hancock, as it did in 2023 and 2024. Rookie Logan Evans also contributed with 15 starts, while Luis F. Castillo and reliever Casey Legumina covered the rest.

Starts by SEA Pitchers

Luis M. Castillo (32)
Bryan Woo (30)
Logan Gilbert (25)
George Kirby (23)
Bryce Miller (18)
Emerson Hancock (16)
Logan Evans (15)
Luis F. Castillo (2)
Casey Legumina (1)

To this nerd, the overall well-being of the Core Five is the most crucial planning factor facing the Mariners this winter. Adding intrigue to the situation, the nature of the issues sidelining starters this year and the volatility generally associated with pitcher health.

Injured SEA Starters in 2025

Bryce Miller (Elbow inflammation - twice) - 92 lost days
George Kirby (Shoulder inflammation) - 59 days
Logan Gilbert (Elbow flexor strain) - 51 days
Bryan Woo (Pectoral strain) - 10 days

Consider this. How comfortable are you knowing that two starters missed over 50 days with elbow-related injuries? Even though Gilbert and Miller could be fine next year, it’s also possible an extended IL stint lasting greater than a year looms over the horizon for either or both pitchers.

And then there’s Woo.

This year was the first time in his young career that Woo avoided an IL stint during the regular season. As a rookie in 2023, the Californian missed time with forearm inflammation. The following year, he dealt with elbow inflammation. That said, the team lost Woo in late September due to a pectoral strain, which subsequently limited his postseason availability to a pair of relief appearances in the ALCS.

In summary, the most durable Seattle starter in 2025 was Castillo, who turns 33 in a month. Injuries suffered by Gilbert and Miller could be red flags, while Woo suffered a third health setback in as many years. The totality of the situation doesn’t give me a warm and fuzzy feeling heading into the offseason. Maybe you feel differently.

Performance

A second-order effect prompted by multiple injuries was the Core Five logging 162 fewer innings than it did the season prior. But even when the quintet was available, its effectiveness noticeably regressed in multiple categories compared to 2024.

An excellent indicator of the Core Five’s decline in performance and availability was its quality start rate, which dropped 12-percent from the season prior. In 2024, Gilbert was fourth-best in baseball, while Kirby, Castillo, and Miller were top-20. A year later, the numbers were less appealing.

On the positive side, Woo’s quality start rate skyrocketed to the highest in baseball during his breakout 2025 campaign, while Castillo remained relatively stable. But the same can’t be said about the other guys.

A nine-percent reduction in Kirby’s quality start rate may not seem so bad. But he’s regressed by 13-percent since 2023. Meanwhile, Gilbert went from top-five to slightly below league-average this year.

As for Miller, just one of his 18 outings qualified as a quality start. Among 148 pitchers making at least 15 starts, only Cal Quantrill (4-percent) had a lower rate than the Texan did.

Looking ahead

My takeaway from our conversation is the Mariners could use rotation support from outside the organization. Then again, it’s possible a front office full of people more intelligent and much savvier than me feels comfortable with relying on internal options to supplement the Core Five. The most frequently mentioned candidates to fill are Hancock and Evans, plus prospects Jurrangelo Cijntje, Ryan Sloan, and Kade Anderson. But let’s do a reality check.

Hancock and Evans combined for 31 starts and 159.2 innings this year. The duo posted a 4.79 ERA with opponents producing a .265 AVG, .339 OBP, and .458 SLG against them. This stat line may be acceptable for the number-five spot in some rotations. But how comfortable would you be with both pitchers covering for one or more of the Core Five for an extended period or an entire season?

The future is bright for the youngsters, but their professional experience is extremely limited.

Cijntje pitched 108 innings during his first minor-league season after being drafted 15th overall in 2024. Sloan logged 82 frames after his second round selection the same year. Meanwhile, Anderson didn’t appear in a game with the Mariners organization after being the third overall pick in July.

Considering the inexperience of Cijntje, Sloan, and Anderson, banking on any of them to be a difference-maker at the big-league level in 2026 is aspirational. At least, that’s how I see it.

Am I painting a dark picture? You betcha. But planning for the worst while hoping for the best makes sense for a club focused on reaching its first World Series next year.

For this reason, the Mariners acquiring starters with big-league experience to address potential contingencies should be on the offseason agenda.

My Oh My…

Even though the Mariners reached the ALCS, it’s important to recognize where the roster finished isn’t where it’ll begin next year. Likely free agent position players include Josh Naylor, Jorge Polanco, Eugenio Suárez, and Mitch Garver. And let’s not overlook the potential impact arbitration may have.

Outfielders Randy Arozarena and Luke Raley are both arbitration eligible. Considering Arozarena projects to earn a $7 million raise and Raley is coming off a down campaign, it’s possible neither is on Seattle’s Opening Day roster in 2026.

With so many pieces potentially in motion, let’s consider several position groups that may need to be addressed in the offseason. First up, a spot the Mariners upgraded with a big trade in July.

First base: For the first four months of the season, position was covered by Rowdy Tellez, Donovan Solano, Raley, and Dylan Moore until Naylor’s arrival on July 25. The foursome combined for an average-ish 104 wRC+.

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantifies how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.

Thanks to Naylor, Seattle’s first base wRC+ rose to sixth best in baseball for the final nine weeks of the 2025 campaign. The conventional stats also looked way better.

Assuming Naylor becomes a free agent, only Raley will remain from this year’s first base contingent. Tellez, Solano, and Moore were released during the season. Moreover, top first base prospect Tyler Locklear was dealt to Arizona in July for Suárez.

It’s also important to note that Raley spent 72 days on the injured list this year and has averaged 105 games annually since the beginning of 2021. And as already noted, the 31-year-old was generally ineffective when available in 2025.

Second base: Seattle second basemen posted a 10th ranked 99 wRC+, which doesn’t sound so bad. But there are underlying issues worth discussing.

Three players illustrated below with above average production as second basemen - Polanco, Moore, and Miles Mastrobuoni - accounted for 242 plate appearances at the position. But that’s 13 fewer than rookie Cole Young, who got off to a respectable start before seeing his role diminish late in the year.

Defense is another factor to consider. Outs Above Average (OAA), which quantifies how many outs a defender has saved compared to the average player), suggests Young’s range at second base was suboptimal.

M’s OAA at 2B

Ryan Bliss (1)
Miles Mastrobuoni (1)
Dylan Moore (0)
Leo Rivas (0)
Jorge Polanco (minus-1)
Cole Young (minus-9)

Baseball Savant rated Young’s range 45th of 46 qualified second basemen. But to be fair, the Pennsylvania native is a relatively inexperienced professional, who just finished his age-21 season. Remember, he was drafted out of high school just three years ago.

Consider this nugget regarding Young’s second base résumé. He logged 621 innings at the position with Seattle - just 31 frames fewer than his career total as a minor-league second baseman. Furthermore, the North Allegheny High School alum started two more games at shortstop for Class-AAA Tacoma this year than he did at second base (26).

Perhaps the club gives Ryan Bliss a long look in Spring Training. In limited MLB action, Bliss has a 92 wRC+ and boasts above-average speed. He also may be the best defender in the team’s second base stable. That said, health must be a planning factor.

Bliss suffered a torn bicep on April 8, finishing 2025 on the injured list. The 25-year-old began a rehab assignment in late August. But days later, Tim Booth of the Seattle Times reported Bliss suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee, which required surgery.

Another internal option with big-league experience might be switch-hitter Leo Rivas. But based on how the club has utilized him, the 27-year-old appears destined to fill a utility role.

Third base: Suarez’s departure presents the team with the choice of returning to Ben Williamson or looking elsewhere for a third baseman with MLB experience.

Williamson, who turns 25 this month, produced a 76 wRC+ in 295 plate appearances with the Mariners. His .253 AVG and .294 OBP as a rookie were relatively fine. But his .310 SLG was hard to miss. Only 13 of 308 hitters with 250 plate appearances delivered a lower SLG than the William and Mary product. Oh look, Cole Young was 10th lowest.

This is anecdotal. But my general sense is the fan base isn’t clamoring for a Mariners-Suárez reunion. But as I recently noted, he was a noticeably better run producer (91 wRC+) with Seattle than Williamson was (76 wRC+). As for defense, each had zero OAA at third base.

And before you tell me that your eyeballs say Williamson was a better-than-average defender, I’m just relaying what unbiased metrics suggest about his work in the field. Furthermore, I’m not advocating for Geno’s return nor am I suggesting Williamson isn’t the answer. Regardless, the front office has a lot to consider as it looks for its Opening Day third baseman.

Right field: A platoon of Víctor Robles and the left-handed bats of Dominic Canzone and/or Raley appears to be the current plan. But I assume the team will seek opportunities to upgrade the position.

A segment of fans probably hopes Robles will repeat the production he delivered to the Mariners last year. Over the final four months of the 2024 season, he posted a .328 AVG, .393 OBP, and .467 SLG with a 155 wRC+. Promising numbers until you consider the rest of his career.

Before coming to Seattle, Robles produced an 80 wRC+ during eight seasons and 1,834 plate appearances as a National. He missed most of 2025 after suffering an early-season shoulder injury, so we’ll ignore that small sample. But ask yourself this. Which stat line do you believe is more insightful regarding the 28-year-old’s potential? Eight years with the Nationals or four months with the Mariners?

As for Canzone, he put up an impressive .304 AVG, .362 OBP, and .488 SLG with a 144 wRC+ in 266 plate appearances following his June call-up from Tacoma. Whether that’s a big enough sample size to generate front office confidence is unknown.

We’ve already discussed Raley. But I will note that he and Robles accumulated zero OAA in right field, while Canzone was a minus-two. Will this be a factor for management? I don’t know, but I thought this metric was worth sharing.

Designated Hitter: Even if Polanco returns, I view him as a better candidate for the DH spot than second base.

Sure, Polanco could occasionally play in the field. But based on his availability history and what advanced metrics say about his defense, the 12-year veteran makes more sense as a DH. Besides, he was Seattle’s main guy at the position in 2025.

Naturally, next season’s main DH will occasionally step aside when Cal Raleigh needs a break from catching. That said, management could revert to the planning philosophy that was in place prior to Garver’s arrival - DH by committee.

Such a practice can work. But only if there are multiple committee members capable of being run producers. Otherwise, designated hitter becomes a drag on the lineup, as it was for the Mariners several times over the past five seasons.

Mariners DH wRC+ (2021-25)

2021 - 96 (18th in MLB)
2022 - 82 (25th)
2023 - 95 (20th)
2024 - 99 (19th)
2025 - 121 (8th)

Bottom line: It would be disappointing for Seattle to lose the edge it gained at DH in 2025.

Supporting cast: Who ends up being reserves next year will be influenced by how the team views Canzone, Robles, Raley, Rivas, Young, Bliss, and Mastrobuoni. That said, the team should attempt to raise the floor of the bench over the winter and not just simply rely on players currently on the roster.

As for backup catcher, the Mariners will likely decline the 34-year-old Garver’s $12 million mutual option. And while it’s possible both sides negotiate a new deal for next season, it’s worth noting Seattle has employed a catcher older than Garver just once in the last decade - a 38-year-old Carlos Ruiz in 2017.

I suspect the team looks for someone younger to serve as Raleigh’s understudy.

The prospects: A potential resource to supplement the roster is Seattle’s deep farm system. Harry Ford, Colt Emerson, and Lazaro Montes have received mention on Mariners Twitter as solutions for big-league roster deficiencies. Perhaps these players, or other minor-leaguers, contribute in 2026. But there are two important factors to consider - youth and inexperience.

Ford, who debuted in September, is 22-years-old and has 469 games as a professional since being drafted 12th overall four years ago. To me, he faces a steeper learning curve as a catcher than other position players. Meanwhile, Emerson is 20 and Montes just turned 21.

Am I suggesting these or other youngsters couldn’t help the Mariners next season? Not exactly. But we should remember it usually takes time for rookies to get accustomed to the majors. Therefore, expectations should be tempered.

Baseball is extremely hard - even for the most talented and promising players.

Thoughts: This much roster churn means there will be a lot to discuss this offseason, which is fun and awesome. As usual, I’ll be publishing reports on potential trade and free agent candidates for the Mariners. And maybe I’ll also address the current state of the pitching staff in a few days.

Spoiler alert: It needs help.

My Oh My…

We recently discussed pending free agents Josh Naylor and Jorge Polanco. We should now turn our attention to the third regular on the Mariners getting ready to hit the market - Eugenio Suárez. Assuming Suárez demonstrated interest in remaining with the team, would it be wise for Seattle to pursue a deal with him?

As we did with Naylor and Polanco, let’s walk through Suárez’s selling points and any potential concerns with keeping the slugging third baseman in a Mariners uniform beyond this year.

Selling points: Suárez tied a career best with 49 home runs. Only four players hit more this year: teammate Cal Raleigh (60), Kyle Schwarber (56), Shohei Ohtani (55), and Aaron Judge (53). Over the final two months of the season, the lone Mariner with more round-trippers than Suárez’s 13, was Raleigh (18).

Suárez makes loud, quality contact. Among 108 players with at least 550 plate appearances, his 14.3-percent barrel rate tied with Matt Olson for 18th best. This year, barreled balls produced a .690 AVG, 2.299 SLG, and 87-percent of all home runs.

After a sluggish American League Division Series, Suárez rebounded to post a .308 AVG, .379 OBP, and .577 SLG with two home runs in the American League Championship Series. And who will ever forget the go-ahead grand slam he hit in Game 5?

Since 2022, Suárez has played 629 games. Only Olson (648), Pete Alonso (638), Francisco Lindor (633), Juan Soto (632), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (631) appeared in more contests than the Venezuelan did. Suárez also logged 5,254.2 innings at third base during the same span - most by anyone at the hot corner. The next closest fielder was Matt Chapman (5,012.1).

Potential concerns: This isn’t breaking news. Suárez struck out often in 2025, as he’s done for multiple seasons. The right-handed hitter’s strikeout rate has been near 30-percent since 2019.

Suárez’s Strikeout Rates

2014 (24.2%)
2015 (23.6%)
2016 (24.7%)
2017 (23.3%)
2018 (23.4%)
2019 (28.5%)
2020 (29%)
2021 (29.8%)
2022 (31.2%)
2023 (30.8%)
2024 (27.5%)
2025 (29.8%)

With the Mariners this year, Suárez’s strikeout rate was 35.9-percent - the highest mark of his career. Granted, we’re talking about a small sample of just 53 games. But it’s worth noting the two-time All-Star’s strikeout rate was almost 10-percent lower with Arizona.

And it wasn’t just strikeouts where Suárez’s production as a Diamondback outperformed what he did with Seattle.

Honing in on Suárez’s two months with the Mariners led to an unexpected discovery. He was very good on the road, but struggled mightily at home. Other than strikeouts and walks, the 2025 All-Star was significantly worse in every other respect at T-Mobile Park.

I didn’t expect to find Suárez’s home numbers to be so bad since he was productive at T-Mobile Park during his first stint with the Mariners. Even during the 2023 season when his overall numbers suffered, Suárez was better at home than on the road.

Suárez’s Home/Away Splits (2023)

Home: 335 PA, 12 HR, .232 AVG, .331, OBP, .411 SLG
Away: 359 PA, 10 HR, .233 AVG, .315 OBP, .374 SLG

Perhaps it’s just the randomness of baseball, but Suárez struggling so much at T-Mobile Park is an attention-getter for me.

From a defensive standpoint, Outs Above Average (OAA) suggests Suárez’s range may have regressed since he left Seattle. Baseball Savant defines OAA as a range-based metric that quantifies how many outs a defender has saved compared to the average player. League-average is always ZERO.

Suárez’s minus-5 OAA ranked 32nd of 39 qualified third basemen. Am I suggesting the veteran infielder was a liability in the field? No, but the data hints that Suárez may have lost a step at third base.

Suárez’s OAA History at 3B

2021 (0) - CIN
2022 (0) - SEA
2023 (11) - SEA
2024 (3) - ARI
2025 (minus-5) - ARI
2025 (0) - SEA

Perhaps if the Mariners and Suárez agreed to a new contract, being around infield coach Perry Hill on a full-time basis would benefit him. Then again, Father Time waits for no one.

Thoughts: As much as Suárez struggled to consistently hit after joining the Mariners, his offensive productivity was better than his predecessors at the hot corner - rookie Ben Williamson and Miles Mastrobuoni.

I’m not suggesting Suárez being better than a first-year player and a utility-man is worthy of praise. But knowing this fact could provide a measure of perspective as the offseason approaches and we speculate over who would be a good choice to play third base for the Mariners in 2026.

The issue confronting the Mariners is whether they want to reunite with a very popular player, who will be entering his age-35 season and didn’t deliver with his bat on a regular basis over the final two months of the 2025 campaign.

My suspicion is that Suárez doesn’t re-sign with Seattle. But even if Geno does become a former Mariner for a second time, we’ll always have that game-winning grand slam in the ALCS to keep the Good Vibes beating in our hearts.

“Seattle is shaking!”

My Oh My…

According to Spotrac, Jorge Polanco has a $6 million player option for next year. But after having one of the better offensive seasons of his career, it’s likely Polanco tests free agency to search for a contract that guarantees a higher salary over multiple years. If this turns out to be the case, should the Mariners be one of the clubs pursuing the former All-Star this offseason?

Before addressing this issue, let’s consider Polanco’s selling points and potential concerns with bringing him back to the Emerald City, just as we recently did with another pending Mariners free agent Josh Naylor.

Selling points: Polanco’s 132 wRC+ was 24th best among 145 qualified hitters. Not only that, it was his highest wRC+ of any season with 200-plus plate appearances.

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantifies how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.

Minimizing strikeouts played a key role in Polanco’s success. Only 29 qualified hitters had a lower strikeout rate than the Dominican Republic native did. Within this group, only Ketel Marte (.517) and José Ramírez (.503) had a higher SLG than Polanco (.495).

Furthermore, Polanco experienced a 13.7-percent decline in his strikeout rate from the season prior, which was the largest drop in baseball by a significant margin. As you can see below, similar improvements were reflected across his stat line.

A case could be made that Polanco was one of the most improved hitters in 2025. He experienced the eighth biggest rise in AVG, second greatest increase in doubles, and the third highest jump in SLG (.140) - just behind teammate Cal Raleigh (.153).

It’s also worth noting Polanco was extremely productive at T-Mobile Park this season. An impressive accomplishment considering Seattle’s home field is considered the most difficult venue to hit in.

Polanco’s home SLG is particularly noteworthy considering it’s the second highest ever recorded in a season by a player with 200-plus plate appearances at T-Mobile Park.

Highest SLG at T-Mobile Park (200 PA min)

Bret Boone (2001) - .580
Jorge Polanco (2025) - .564
Edgar Martínez (2000) - .563
Cal Raleigh (2025) - .557
Luke Raley (2024) - .557
Raúl Ibañez (2006) - .553
Adam Lind (2016) - .549
Russell Branyan (2009) - .548
Julio Rodríguez (2022) - .548
Edgar Martínez (2002) - .545

An important factor driving Polanco’s SLG was the 20 doubles he produced at home, which put him in exclusive company. The only other players with 20-plus two-baggers in a season at T-Mobile Park are Yuniesky Betancourt, José López, John Olerud, Raúl Ibañez, Kendrys Morales, and Kyle Seager.

Potential concerns: We’ve already noted Polanco was dramatically better this year. Considering he’s just one year removed from the least productive season of his career, what is your comfort level regarding the 32-year-old performing at-or-near the same level in 2026?

Consider this, the frequency at which Polanco struck out had steadily climbed between 2019 and 2024. And then this year, it was close to a career-low. Which way does his strikeout rate go in 2026?

We also should consider Polanco’s sudden and dramatic uptick in productivity in Seattle this year.

When I compared his home and away splits from the last two seasons, Polanco’s improvement from one year to the next on the road was relatively modest compared to the extreme change at T-Mobile Park. What’s the likelihood this happens again?

Another area of concern is Polanco’s glove work. As has been the case in recent seasons, Fielding Run Value (FRV) suggests his defense was well-below average this year. FRV is Statcast’s overall metric for capturing a player’s measurable defensive performance. Zero is always average.

Polanco’s Recent FRV

2021 (minus-3) / 971 innings
2022 (minus-6) / 833 innings
2023 (minus-4) / 468 innings
2024 (minus-8) / 925 innings
2025 (minus-4) / 287 innings

At first glance, Polanco’s minus-4 FRV this year may seem like an improvement over 2024. But it’s important to note the difference in innings played. In 2025, he spent less than a third of the time in the field he did in the season prior. Since FRV is a cumulative metric, a minus-4 FRV is essentially worse.

A third potential cause for unease is Polanco’s injury history and its effect on the veteran infielder’s availability. Dating back to the beginning of the 2021 season, he’s averaged 116 games annually and has appeared in 120 contests just twice.

Polanco Games Played (2021-25)

2021 (152)
2022 (104)
2023 (80)
2024 (118)
2025 (138)

After landing on the Injured List at least once each season between 2022 and 2024, Polanco avoided an IL stint this year. However, he dealt with challenges related to offseason knee surgery. The switch-hitter also suffered a side injury, which prevented him from taking right-handed swings in games for about five weeks in April and May.

Recent Polanco IL Reasons (and Days Lost)

2022 - Lower back tightness (15 days)
2022 - Left knee inflammation (36 days)
2023 - Left knee inflammation (25 days)
2023 - Left hamstring strain (14 days)
2023 - Left hamstring strain (49 days)
2024 - Right hamstring strain (28 days)
2025 - No time on IL

It’s impossible to predict anyone’s future. But banking on a player with an extensive injury history, who’ll be entering his age-32 season, could be viewed as a risky move.

Thoughts: At this stage of his career, Polanco may be best suited to be a club’s primary designated hitter and occasional second baseman. Perhaps he could also cover a limited number of innings at each corner infield spot.

Taking this approach would help keep Polanco healthy and available. But does a player who may require his workload this closely managed worth a multi-year deal from the Mariners perspective? Especially when we factor in his unusually good, and probably unrepeatable, productivity at home this year?

No matter what happens this winter, one thing will always remain true about Polanco. His comeback campaign was one of the many good news stories we witnessed during a magical Mariners season.

And who will ever forget his walk-off single in the deciding game of the American League Division Series.

My Oh My…

When Mariners President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto was asked about pending free agent Josh Naylor, Dipoto stated keeping Naylor was “obviously” a priority for his club. That sentiment won’t receive any blowback from this fan base.

After the Mariners acquired Naylor from Arizona on July 24, he quickly became popular with the locals thanks to his intensity, baseball acumen, and superb performance at the plate and in the field. Even better, the 28-year-old has publicly expressed his fondness for Seattle fans.

“I’ve gotten so many compliments from friends who have watched me play, or ex-teammates I’ve played with or even just opponents who I’m playing against, like, how awesome it is in Seattle, and how cool the fan base is and how they just ride-or-die Seattle.” - Josh Naylor to Adam Jude (Seattle Times)

Emotionally speaking, re-signing Naylor is a no-brainer. That said, I prefer to see where the numbers take me before forming an opinion. With this in mind, let’s discuss selling points and potential concerns regarding the 12th overall pick of the 2015 draft. We also should consider what other options Naylor could potentially have once free agency commences five days after the end of the World Series.

Selling points: Naylor is an above average run producer. His combined 128 wRC+ with Arizona and Seattle ranked 31st among 145 qualified hitters this season.

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) quantifies how a hitter’s total offensive value compares with the league average after adjusting for park effects. League-average is always 100. Therefore, a wRC+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 wRC+ would be 20-percent below average.

Conventional numbers corroborate Naylor’s high wRC+ ranking. His .295 AVG tied for 10th best with Freddie Freeman, while the .353 OBP he generated ranked 30th. Furthermore, the left-handed hitter’s 13.7-percent strikeout rate tied for 16th lowest with Cody Bellinger.

An unexpected dominance Naylor displayed in 2025 was thievery on the base paths. Despite having a 24 feet-per-second sprint speed that ranked 266th of 270 players, the one-time All-Star’s 30 stolen bases tied for 19th-best in baseball with teammate Julio Rodríguez and Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson.

Sprint Speed is a Statcast product that measures how many feet-per-second a player runs in his fastest one-second window. The MLB average is 27 feet-per-second.

When we focus on Naylor’s performance as a Mariner, the numbers continue to impress. From his first game with Seattle on July 25 until the end of the regular season, the Canadian produced a .299 AVG, .341 OBP, .490 SLG with a 137 wRC+. He also led his new club with 19 stolen bases.

What really stood out to me about Naylor’s short time with the Mariners was his superb performance at T-Mobile Park. In 100 home plate appearances, he led his new teammates with a .360 AVG, .408 OBP, .607 SLG, 12 doubles, and five home runs.

Considering Seattle’s home field is considered the most extreme pitchers park in MLB, finding an established hitter capable of producing there is a huge get. Not only that, Naylor told Wyman and Bob of Seattle Sports Radio that he likes hitting there.

“I think it’s a hitter’s park more than a pitcher’s park, to be honest. I think it’s easy to hit here.” - Josh Naylor, discussing T-Mobile Park

Speaking of the ballpark, anyone who’s attended a Mariners home game early in the season knows exactly how frigid it can get there. Particularly, at night. I’m not going to suggest Naylor is impervious to the cold because he’s from the Great White North. But in 145 plate appearances when the game start temperature was 50 degrees-or-lower, he boasts a respectable .267 AVG, .333 OBP, and .405 SLG.

From a defensive perspective, the metrics suggest Naylor also provided value with his glove. His two OAA for the season tied for eight best among 40 qualified first baseman. But the seven-year veteran displayed even better range with five OAA during his two months as a Mariner. Perhaps being around Seattle’s infield guru, Perry Hill, on a daily basis helped.

Outs Above Average (OAA) is a range-based metric that quantifies how many outs a defender has saved compared to the average player. League-average is always ZERO. Source: Baseball Savant

Naylor also delivered in the postseason for the Mariners. During the playoffs, he led the team in hits (16), AVG (.340), and OBP (.392). Only Cal Raleigh bested Naylor’s four home runs and .574 SLG.

Potential concerns: Naylor was very good at home for the Mariners. But he wasn’t nearly as successful on the road after joining the team.

Naylor’s Home/Away Splits with SEA

Home: 100 PA, .360 AVG, .408 OBP, .607 SLG
Away: 110 PA, .248 AVG, .282 OBP, .390 SLG

It’s also important to note that Naylor’s lefty bat has been much more productive against right-handed throwers (.809 OPS) than southpaws (.694 OPS) during 2,863 career plate appearances.

To be clear, I’m not suggesting Naylor is horrible against left-handers. But there has been a noticeable platoon split during his time in the majors. That said, he was much more effective versus lefty hurlers in 2025.

Naylor vs LHP in 2025

ARI: 128 PA, .258 AVG, .297 OBP, .358 SLG
SEA: 64 PA, .344 AVG, .375 OBP, .590 SLG

Dating back to 2022, Naylor has averaged just 122 games annually. Granted, he played in 147 contests in 2025 and 152 last year. But the left-handed thrower did miss a pair of games with left shoulder discomfort in August and was unavailable for two contests in June after injuring his right shoulder. Will availability be a concern for potential suitors of Naylor?

Teams and their respective medical staffs are better qualified than me to determine whether health is an issue or a nothing-burger with Naylor.

This nerd isn’t going to dispute the comments of an MLB hitter regarding his abilities or comfort level. But it’s worth noting that, despite saying he’s always liked hitting at T-Mobile Park, Naylor had a .204 AVG, .207 OBP, and .370 SLG in 58 appearances at the venue as a member of the Guardians.

Sure, that’s a small sample size to focus on. But the same could be said about the 100 home plate appearances Naylor had with Seattle this year.

The competition: Even though Mariners fans are insisting that the team signs Naylor immediately, it’s important to recognize that the player has a collectively bargained right to test the free agent market to gauge his maximum value. After all, depending on the length of Naylor’s next deal, this year may be his only shot at a long-term contract.

With this in mind, I identified several clubs that may be shopping in the first base aisle this offseason. Please note that this list isn’t all-inclusive.

Mets: Whether New York gets involved in a potential Josh Naylor sweepstakes likely depends on their current first baseman, Pete Alonso. The five-time All-Star will be a free agent for a second consecutive season. Last year, Alonso and agent Scott Boras didn’t snag the long-term contract they were seeking. So, the 30-year-old accepted a shorter deal to return to the only club he’s played for. Do player and team end up having another reunion? Or, do the Mets look for a younger and less expensive alternative to the “Polar Bear?”

Yankees: In the Bronx, 37-year-old Paul Goldschmidt played the most games at first base for the Bombers in 2025. But assuming the team prefers getting younger at the position, it’s possible Naylor would be an enticing target. His left-handed swing might mesh well with the short right field wall of Yankee Stadium. Then again, the team could go with 27-year-old Ben Rice instead.

Padres: The pending free agency of Luis Arráez provides the Padres with an opportunity to turn the page at first base. Perhaps Naylor is an option. There is already a built-in familiarity between player and organization. Naylor made his MLB debut with San Diego in 2019.

Rangers: Jake Burger, former Mariner Rowdy Tellez, Ezequiel Duran, and utility-man Josh Smith rack made at least 25 appearances at first base last year. Finding a more permanent, long-term solution would make sense. Perhaps Texas prefers to stick with Burger, who had three IL stints during a down year. On the other hand, Naylor would be a clear-cut upgrade.

Nationals: This year, the 89 wRC+ of Washington first basemen ranked 24th in baseball. The rebuilding organization doesn’t have someone knocking at the door in the minors. Moreover, Naylor’s intensity and baseball knowledge may make him an intriguing candidate to serve as a mentor for the stable of young and promising players on the Nationals’ roster.

Red Sox: A year ago, Mariners fans were clamoring for their team to acquire Boston’s young first baseman, Triston Casas. That trade never transpired and the 25-year-old subsequently suffered a season-ending knee injury in early May. As a result, former Mariner Abraham Toro made a club-leading 57 starts at the position. Considering Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow wouldn’t commit to Casas as the team’s 2026 first baseman, could the Sawx make a run at Naylor?

Thoughts: Even though potential concerns exist with Naylor, this nerd views him as an ideal long-term fit with the Mariners.

Naylor is still in his prime, has been a top-shelf hitter over an extended period, and appears capable of being productive at T-Mobile Park. That’s exactly the kind of performer this club needs to retain.

Whether the Mariners can actually get a deal done with Naylor remains unclear. First, there will be deep-pocketed rivals to contend with. Compounding matters, ownership has a reputation for making public commitments to provide the front office with the necessary resources to improve the roster before quietly reversing course.

Signing Josh Naylor would be a great first step towards transforming that reputation.

My Oh My…